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  • EUV Frankfurt  (5)
  • F.-Ebert-Stiftung
  • Khan, Shafaat Yar  (5)
  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions : 2020-2022 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049079314
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (53 Seiten)
    Inhalt: This paper studies the aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of sup- ply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. The paper fits the model to the United States and global economies over 2020|2022 and estimates large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. The model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Alessandria, George The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020-2022 Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2023
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10303
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10303
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Online Zugang
    Open Access Wunsch
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049081218
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (54 Seiten)
    Inhalt: This paper studies the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950-1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during this period. Central to the analysis is an accounting for the dynamics of trade, trade policy, and trade-policy expectations. The analysis isolates the lagged effects of past reforms and the current effects of uncertainty about future reforms. It builds a multi-industry, heterogeneous-firm model with a dynamic export participation decision to estimate a path of trade-policy expectations. The findings show that being granted Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status in 1980 was largely a surprise and that, in the early stages, this reform had a high probability of being reversed. The likelihood of reversal dropped considerably during the mid-1980s, and, despite China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, changed little throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thus, although uncertainty depressed trade substantially following the 1980 liberalization, much of the trade growth that followed China's WTO accession was a delayed response to previous reforms rather than a response to declining uncertainty
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9741
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9741
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Online Zugang
    Open Access Wunsch
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    How Does Trade Respond to Anticipated Tariff Changes? : Evidence from NAFTA (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049081635
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (54 Seiten)
    Inhalt: Firms anticipate upcoming tariff changes by shifting their purchases to periods with lower costs. This paper shows that such anticipatory dynamics overstate the trade elasticity. Standard identification of the trade response to trade cost changes uses tariff variation from free trade agreements and assumes that trade flows equal their consumption. However, free trade agreements eliminate tariffs gradually through announced phaseouts. This allows firms to delay their purchases until tariff cuts are effective, while consuming their inventories. Indeed, during the North American Free Trade Agreement's staged tariff reductions, imports experienced sizable anticipatory slumps followed by libseralization bumps. To study the behavior of consumed imports, a measure is constructed that uses inventory-to-sales ratios to smooth the trade flows. Its application to the data yields that the annual trade-flow elasticity is 56 percent larger than the trade-consumption response and that the ratio of the long- to short-run elasticity increases from 2.3 with trade flows to 3.4 with consumed imports. The measure is validated through Monte Carlo simulations of an (s,S) ordering model that reproduces the observed trade pattern
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9646
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9646
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Online Zugang
    Open Access Wunsch
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Inventories, Input Costs, and Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalizations (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049081817
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (55 Seiten)
    Inhalt: Sourcing internationally entails additional costs due to larger per inventory holdings. When firms switch toward foreign sources, these unobserved costs increase. This paper revisits the effect of trade liberalization on firms' productivity taking into account the inventory premium of importing and input cost heterogeneity. Through model simulations, the paper shows that in the presence of inventory holding costs, their omission in revenue-based productivity measures leads to a systematic overestimation of the elasticity of productivity to input tariffs. Controlling for the firm's import intensity and inventory usage in the estimation of productivity corrects for the bias. The paper studies the relevance of this potential bias during India's trade liberalization in the early 1990s. First, it documents that inventory holdings of intermediate goods increased significantly with import intensity and input tariffs. Second, it extends a standard productivity estimation procedure with a control function of the various firm-level input costs. The mismeasurement channel accounts for around 35 percent of the estimated productivity gains. Consistent with the gradual adjustment to the tariff reductions, the bias in the response of firm-level productivity is backloaded
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9564
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9564
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Online Zugang
    Open Access Wunsch
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty : Evidence from China's Pre-WTO Accession (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049081830
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (57 Seiten)
    Inhalt: This paper studies the effects on international trade from the annual tariff uncertainty about China's Most Favored Nation (MFN) status renewal in the United States prior to joining the World Trade Organization. The paper makes four main findings. First, in monthly data trade increases significantly in anticipation of uncertain future increases in tariffs and falls upon renewal. Second, the probability of a tariff increase was perceived to be relatively small, with an average annual probability of non-renewal of about 4.5 percent. Third, what matters more is the expected future tariff rather than the uncertainty around it. These effects are identified using within-year variation in the risk of trade policy changes around the renewal vote and trade flows. An (s,S) inventory model generates this behavior and that variation in the strength of the stockpiling in advance of the vote is increasing in the storability of goods. Fourth, the costs associated with within-year trade policy induced stockpiling reduce entrants' incentive to operate in a market with tariff uncertainty. The results explain why trade may hold up in advance of a prospective policy change, such as Brexit or the US-China escalating tariff war of 2018-19, but may fall sharply even if expected tariff increases do not materialize
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9551
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9551
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Online Zugang
    Open Access Wunsch
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
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