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  • EUV Frankfurt  (15)
  • Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin
  • SB Templin
  • SB Wriezen
  • Kennedy, Mike  (15)
  • 1
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047932579
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (30 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: In this paper policy issues related to the operation of monetary policy in a low inflation environment are discussed. The successful reduction of inflation rates in a number of OECD countries in recent years arguably represents a regime shift that is likely to affect the operation of monetary policy. Some of the practical issues involved are the potential existence of a trade-off between inflation variability and output variability, asymmetries in the short-run Phillips curve, the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies, the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments, the appropriate specification of the price stability objective, as well as the credibility of monetary policy in a near price-stability environment. The results indicate that under many circumstances none of these issues should cause major difficulties at price stability. Furthermore, the analysis tends to strengthen the argument for maintaining relatively tight control over inflation. Sound fiscal policies ...
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 2
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935007
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (60 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: In the vast majority of OECD economies, house prices in real terms have been moving up strongly since the mid-1990s. Because of the important role housing wealth has been playing during the current upswing, this paper will look more closely at what is underlying these developments for 18 OECD countries over the period from 1970 to the present, with a view to shedding some light on whether or not prices are in line with fundamentals. The paper begins by putting the most recent housing price run-ups in the context of the experiences of the past 35 years. It then examines current valuations against a range of benchmarks. It concludes with a review of the links between a possible correction of housing prices and real activity. The main highlights from this analysis are as follows: 1) The size and duration of the current real house price increases; the degree to which they have tended to move together across countries; and the extent to which they have disconnected from the business cycle are unprecedented. 2) Overvaluation of real house prices may only apply to a relatively small number of countries. However, the extent to which these prices look to be fairly valued depends largely on longer-term interest rates remaining at or close to their current low levels. 3) If house prices were to adjust downward, the historical record suggests that the drops might be large and that the process could be protracted, given the observed stickiness of nominal house prices and the current low rates of inflation
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936128
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (39 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: This paper reviews, for a number of OECD economies, macroeconomic developments in household balance sheets over the past two decades. The main findings show that the rise in household debt to historical levels has been driven by a combination of favourable financial conditions and buoyant housing markets. There have also been a number of supply-side innovations in credit markets that have eased the access to credit for lower income borrowers and reduced financial constraints for first-time homebuyers. Total household net wealth has risen and provided households with a financial cushion against a negative shock. That said, households in a number of countries have leveraged balance sheets and the sensitivity to house price and interest rate developments has likely increased. The paper then examines micro level information which suggests that most of the debt is held by households better able to manage it. In particular, the major part of debt is held by higher-income households, who also spend a smaller proportion of their disposable income servicing debts. Lower-income households, with less ability to service debt, do not hold that much and, as such, the spill over effects from this group to the rest of the economy are perhaps not large. Whether the situation remains benign or not is discussed in the final section of the paper. Estimates presented point to significant effects of changes in net wealth on household saving rates in a large number of the countries studied
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 4
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047931132
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (44 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: Since 2001, OECD corporate net lending has risen sharply. This paper examines the main forces at play behind this run-up and provides some insight into whether and how they might possibly unwind in the future, a process that may already be underway. It shows in particular that, the increase is partly temporary with some of it likely to fade with the cycle and the ongoing adjustments in the financial and housing sectors. On the other hand, part of the increase reflects structural changes in corporate behaviour and in their environment and is likely to persist. The paper also points to cross-country differences reflecting, for example, the role of competiveness in Japan and continental Europe, and of the financial sector in the United Kingdom
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047931153
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (24 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: It has been argued that one solution to global current account imbalances is for countries with current account surpluses to undertake structural reforms. This would raise their potential growth, which is assumed to put downward pressure on the current account position. This paper takes a closer look at how such structural reforms in labour markets, product markets, and financial markets could be expected to affect current accounts. It also tests empirically, using pooled time-series techniques (that control for the influence of relative cyclical positions, government fiscal balances and the real exchange rate), whether or not reforms in these areas would have any significant relationship with current accounts. The overall finding is that indicators of structural reforms do have a significant relationship with the current account but the contribution of these variables to explain current account positions is quite limited ...
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 6
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047933314
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: Fiscal consolidation is required in most OECD countries. This is especially so in view of mediumand long-term spending pressures on public finances, related, inter alia, to ageing. Based on a dataset covering a large number of OECD fiscal consolidation episodes starting in the late 1970s, the paper presents evidence, both descriptive and econometric, on macroeconomic conditions and policy set-ups that have been effective in triggering and sustaining fiscal consolidation. Main findings include: Large initial deficits and high interest rates have been important in prompting fiscal adjustment and also in boosting the overall size and duration of consolidation. Concerning the quality of fiscal policies, an emphasis on cutting current expenditures has been associated with overall larger consolidation. Fiscal rules with embedded expenditure targets tended to be associated with larger and longer adjustments, pointing to institutional features playing a potentially important role in generating successful consolation efforts. Experience across countries also shows that certain design features such as transparency, flexibility to face shocks and effective enforcement mechanisms seem important for the effectiveness of fiscal rules
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936306
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (22 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: This paper assesses the extent to which the fall in risk premia of a number of financial assets, which occurred throughout 2003, was due to improvements in factors specific to individual markets at that time or to general economic fundamentals coupled with OECD-wide abundant liquidity. Regarding the latter two factors, principal component analysis was used here to identify a common trend in risk premia in equity, corporate bond and emerging markets since early 1998. The analysis finds that both economic fundamentals and liquidity have played a statistically significant role in driving the common factor. It also finds that liquidity (measured as the GDP weighted average of M3 of the three major economies less its trend) performs better than similarly weighted short-term interest rates. By spring 2004, the common factor in different risk premia had fallen below what could be explained by economic fundamentals and liquidity ...
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935273
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (65 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: This paper analyses the major changes in both monetary and fiscal policy that have taken place over the past two decades and, within the limits of the existing empirical research, evaluates the overall costs and benefits for the OECD economies. The general findings for monetary policy are that, while it was costly to lower inflation (in terms of output and employment), there are also benefits in terms of lower risk premiums on interest rates, a more favourable investment climate and an improvement in economic efficiency. That said, the paper concludes that there is not much of a case for lowering inflation further from its already low level. While inflation was being lowered, in a number of cases central banks were also undergoing rather significant changes to their institutional structures and policy-making frameworks. There is some limited evidence that these changes have helped in terms of better anchoring inflation expectations. At the same time there is no firm answer on how ...
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 9
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047931466
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (43 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: For a long time European Economic and Monetary Union was mainly considered an internal European issue and external consequences were largely ignored. In contrast to most previous analyses, this paper looks at a number of international implications of monetary union. It is argued that several factors could contribute to the euro becoming an international currency in the future and a competitor to the US dollar in this respect. The degree of uncertainty attached to this outcome, however, remains considerable and in any event the emergence of the euro as a major international currency is likely to take some time. Given the expected size of the euro-zone and the likelihood of the euro becoming an international currency, fiscal and monetary policies in the area are likely to have a significant impact on the macroeconomic environment in the rest of the world. An important issue is how will monetary union affect major bilateral exchange rate developments and their volatility. A number of ...
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 10
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936517
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (34 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Inhalt: This paper is concerned with how stylised differences in monetary policy transmission mechanisms and product and labour market rigidities between the US and euro-area economies affect their resilience to temporary shocks. To address this issue, a small general equilibrium model with long-run neoclassical and short-run neo-Keynesian features is calibrated to replicate the key properties of the US economy (as in the US Fed's FRB-US model). To this model, features of the euro area's financial and then product and labour markets are added sequentially with a view to replicating what is generally agreed are aspects of the functioning of the euro-area economy (as captured by the ECB's Area-Wide Model). Most of the analysis is conducted assuming identical monetary policy reaction functions, although the sensitivity of the results to this assumption is tested. The results illustrate the importance of adjustment patterns in financial, product and labour markets for economies' ...
    Sprache: Englisch
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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