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  • Stabi Berlin  (36)
  • Ibero-Amerik. Institut
  • Collegium Polonicum
  • Berlin VÖBB/ZLB
  • SB Eberswalde
  • SB Forst (Lausitz)
  • SB Elsterwerda
  • 2010-2014  (36)
  • Berg, Andrew  (21)
  • Berg, Claudia  (15)
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  • 1
    UID:
    gbv_84581950X
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475537441 , 9781475537444
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/61
    Inhalt: We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Andrle, Michal Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781475537444
    Sprache: Englisch
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_845822497
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475535562 , 9781475535563
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/274
    Inhalt: Natural resource revenues provide a valuable source to finance public investment in developing countries, which frequently face borrowing constraints and tax revenue mobilization problems. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic small open economy model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of investing natural resource revenues, making explicit the role of pervasive features in these countries including public investment inefficiency, absorptive capacity constraints, Dutch disease, and financing needs to sustain capital. Revenue exhaustibility raises medium-term issues of how to sustain capital built during a windfall, while revenue volatility raises short-term concerns about macroeconomic instability. Using the model, country applications show how combining public investment with a resource fund---a sustainable investing approach---can help address the macroeconomic problems associated with both exhaustibility and volatility. The applications also demonstrate how the model can be used to determine the appropriate magnitude of the investment scaling-up (accounting for the financing needs to sustain capital) and the adequate size of a stabilization fund (buffer)
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012 ISBN 9781475535563
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    UID:
    gbv_845821490
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 9781475538120 , 1475545401 , 9781475545401
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/11
    Inhalt: We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, we develop an open economy new-Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. We find that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike ""pure"" IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Benes, Jaromir Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781475545401
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    UID:
    gbv_845809377
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475538006 , 9781475538007
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/239
    Inhalt: We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Andrle, Michal Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781475538007
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
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  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_845812173
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1484398130 , 9781484398135
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/197
    Inhalt: Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781484398135
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, DC : Internat. Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_657439851
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 20 S.) , graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 9781463926564
    Serie: IMF staff discussion note 2011/08
    Inhalt: This note raises the IMF’s profile on a number of issues related to inequality, unemployment, governance, etc. It builds on earlier empirical work that examined correlations between growth downbreaks/duration of growth spells and a range of macro/policy/institutional factors. This paper is designed to be more accessible, more policy oriented, and focused squarely on the issue of inequality and the sustainability of growth. It will reference the literature that has gained prominence in the wake of the global crisis, and the possible links between the crisis and rising inequality in countries at the epicenter of the crisis. The analytical findings will also be connected to real world policy narratives in certain countries, to provide texture to the results and enhance policy relevance. The paper will argue that, based on the empirical findings, more equality in the income distribution is associated with longer-lived growth spells. Broad redistributive policies are not necessarily pro-growth, however, as these can have strong disincentive effects. The paper’s policy discussion is appropriately cautious, therefore, offering only tentative ideas, for example, active labor market policies and more attention to human capital investments designed to avoid conflicts between efficiency and equity perspectives
    Anmerkung: Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Ostry, Jonathan Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin? Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2011 ISBN 9781463926564
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_845896059
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451963750 , 9781451963755
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 10/58
    Inhalt: There is good reason and much evidence to suggest that the real exchange rate matters for economic growth, but why? The ""Washington Consensus"" (WC) view holds that real exchange rate misalignment implies macroeconomic imbalances that are themselves bad for growth. In contrast, Rodrik (2008) argues that undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity is good for growth because it promotes the otherwise inefficiently small tradable sector. Our main result is that WC and the Rodrik views of the role of misalignment in growth are observationally equivalent for the main growth regressions he reports. There is an identification problem: Determinants of misalignment are also likely to be independent drivers of growth, and these types of growth regressions are hard-pressed to disentangle the different channels. However, we confirm that not only are overvaluations bad but undervaluations are also good for growth, a result squarely consistent with the Rodrik story but one that requires some gymnastics from the WC viewpoint
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back? Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010 ISBN 9781451963755
    Sprache: Englisch
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  • 8
    UID:
    gbv_845948415
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475579772 , 9781475579772
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/48
    Inhalt: The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014 ISBN 9781475579772
    Sprache: Englisch
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  • 9
    UID:
    gbv_845807676
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1484397002 , 9781484397008
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/18
    Inhalt: We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies in the macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilization, a peg allows for almost full aid absorption — an increase in the current account deficit net of aid—delivering the same effects as those of a flexible regime but with a necessary increase in inflation. Regardless of the regime, policies that limit absorption—and result in large accumulation of reserves—are welfare reducing: they help reduce the real appreciation (and inflation under the peg), but at the expense of reducing private consumption and investment, and therefore medium-term growth
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014 ISBN 9781484397008
    Sprache: Englisch
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    UID:
    gbv_845895249
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1455201170 , 9781455201174
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 10/134
    Inhalt: Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010 ISBN 9781455201174
    Sprache: Englisch
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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