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  • Stabi Berlin  (21)
  • Collegium Polonicum
  • Martin-Opitz-Bibliothek
  • Berlin VÖBB/ZLB
  • Landesgeschichtliche Vereinigung
  • GB Schöneiche
  • 2010-2014  (21)
  • Berg, Andrew  (21)
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  • Stabi Berlin  (21)
  • Collegium Polonicum
  • Martin-Opitz-Bibliothek
  • Berlin VÖBB/ZLB
  • Landesgeschichtliche Vereinigung
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  • 1
    UID:
    gbv_845821490
    Format: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 9781475538120 , 1475545401 , 9781475545401
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/11
    Content: We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, we develop an open economy new-Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. We find that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike ""pure"" IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 2
    UID:
    gbv_845809377
    Format: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475538006 , 9781475538007
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/239
    Content: We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 3
    UID:
    gbv_845822497
    Format: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475535562 , 9781475535563
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/274
    Content: Natural resource revenues provide a valuable source to finance public investment in developing countries, which frequently face borrowing constraints and tax revenue mobilization problems. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic small open economy model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of investing natural resource revenues, making explicit the role of pervasive features in these countries including public investment inefficiency, absorptive capacity constraints, Dutch disease, and financing needs to sustain capital. Revenue exhaustibility raises medium-term issues of how to sustain capital built during a windfall, while revenue volatility raises short-term concerns about macroeconomic instability. Using the model, country applications show how combining public investment with a resource fund---a sustainable investing approach---can help address the macroeconomic problems associated with both exhaustibility and volatility. The applications also demonstrate how the model can be used to determine the appropriate magnitude of the investment scaling-up (accounting for the financing needs to sustain capital) and the adequate size of a stabilization fund (buffer)
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 4
    UID:
    gbv_845812173
    Format: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1484398130 , 9781484398135
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/197
    Content: Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC : Internat. Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_657439851
    Format: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 20 S.) , graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 9781463926564
    Series Statement: IMF staff discussion note 2011/08
    Content: This note raises the IMF’s profile on a number of issues related to inequality, unemployment, governance, etc. It builds on earlier empirical work that examined correlations between growth downbreaks/duration of growth spells and a range of macro/policy/institutional factors. This paper is designed to be more accessible, more policy oriented, and focused squarely on the issue of inequality and the sustainability of growth. It will reference the literature that has gained prominence in the wake of the global crisis, and the possible links between the crisis and rising inequality in countries at the epicenter of the crisis. The analytical findings will also be connected to real world policy narratives in certain countries, to provide texture to the results and enhance policy relevance. The paper will argue that, based on the empirical findings, more equality in the income distribution is associated with longer-lived growth spells. Broad redistributive policies are not necessarily pro-growth, however, as these can have strong disincentive effects. The paper’s policy discussion is appropriately cautious, therefore, offering only tentative ideas, for example, active labor market policies and more attention to human capital investments designed to avoid conflicts between efficiency and equity perspectives
    Note: Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
    Author information: Ostry, Jonathan David 1962-
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  • 6
    UID:
    gbv_845895249
    Format: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1455201170 , 9781455201174
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 10/134
    Content: Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 7
    UID:
    gbv_845831410
    Format: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475504071 , 9781475504071
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/144
    Content: We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 8
    UID:
    gbv_845807676
    Format: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1484397002 , 9781484397008
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/18
    Content: We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies in the macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilization, a peg allows for almost full aid absorption — an increase in the current account deficit net of aid—delivering the same effects as those of a flexible regime but with a necessary increase in inflation. Regardless of the regime, policies that limit absorption—and result in large accumulation of reserves—are welfare reducing: they help reduce the real appreciation (and inflation under the peg), but at the expense of reducing private consumption and investment, and therefore medium-term growth
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 9
    UID:
    gbv_845948415
    Format: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475579772 , 9781475579772
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/48
    Content: The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_845896059
    Format: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451963750 , 9781451963755
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 10/58
    Content: There is good reason and much evidence to suggest that the real exchange rate matters for economic growth, but why? The ""Washington Consensus"" (WC) view holds that real exchange rate misalignment implies macroeconomic imbalances that are themselves bad for growth. In contrast, Rodrik (2008) argues that undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity is good for growth because it promotes the otherwise inefficiently small tradable sector. Our main result is that WC and the Rodrik views of the role of misalignment in growth are observationally equivalent for the main growth regressions he reports. There is an identification problem: Determinants of misalignment are also likely to be independent drivers of growth, and these types of growth regressions are hard-pressed to disentangle the different channels. However, we confirm that not only are overvaluations bad but undervaluations are also good for growth, a result squarely consistent with the Rodrik story but one that requires some gymnastics from the WC viewpoint
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (IMF e-Library)
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