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  • Stabi Berlin  (12)
  • Collegium Polonicum
  • Berlin VÖBB/ZLB
  • Jüdisches Museum
  • Landesgeschichtliche Vereinigung
  • SB Eberswalde
  • SB Fürstenwalde
  • SB Golßen
  • KEB Elbe-Elster
  • GB Schöneiche
  • 2010-2014  (12)
  • Portillo, Rafael  (12)
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  • Stabi Berlin  (12)
  • Collegium Polonicum
  • Berlin VÖBB/ZLB
  • Jüdisches Museum
  • Landesgeschichtliche Vereinigung
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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries : Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya (2013)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_84581950X
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475537441 , 9781475537444
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/61
    Inhalt: We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Andrle, Michal Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781475537444
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.5089/9781475537444.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Stabi Berlin
    FU Berlin
    Charité
  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Public investment in resource-abundant developing countries (2012)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845822497
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475535562 , 9781475535563
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/274
    Inhalt: Natural resource revenues provide a valuable source to finance public investment in developing countries, which frequently face borrowing constraints and tax revenue mobilization problems. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic small open economy model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of investing natural resource revenues, making explicit the role of pervasive features in these countries including public investment inefficiency, absorptive capacity constraints, Dutch disease, and financing needs to sustain capital. Revenue exhaustibility raises medium-term issues of how to sustain capital built during a windfall, while revenue volatility raises short-term concerns about macroeconomic instability. Using the model, country applications show how combining public investment with a resource fund---a sustainable investing approach---can help address the macroeconomic problems associated with both exhaustibility and volatility. The applications also demonstrate how the model can be used to determine the appropriate magnitude of the investment scaling-up (accounting for the financing needs to sustain capital) and the adequate size of a stabilization fund (buffer)
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012 ISBN 9781475535563
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.5089/9781475535563.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Open Access Wunsch
    Stabi Berlin
  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Modeling sterilized interventions and balance sheet effects of monetary policy in a new-Keynesian framework (2013)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845821490
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 9781475538120 , 1475545401 , 9781475545401
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/11
    Inhalt: We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, we develop an open economy new-Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. We find that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike ""pure"" IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Benes, Jaromir Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781475545401
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.5089/9781475545401.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Open Access Wunsch
    Stabi Berlin
  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Money targeting in a modern forecasting and policy analysis system : an application to Kenya (2013)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845809377
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475538006 , 9781475538007
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/239
    Inhalt: We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Andrle, Michal Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781475538007
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.5089/9781475538007.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Open Access Wunsch
    Stabi Berlin
  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The monetary transmission mechanism in the tropics : a narrative approach (2013)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845812173
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1484398130 , 9781484398135
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/197
    Inhalt: Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013 ISBN 9781484398135
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.5089/9781484398135.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Open Access Wunsch
    Stabi Berlin
  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility : The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime (2014)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845807676
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1484397002 , 9781484397008
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/18
    Inhalt: We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies in the macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilization, a peg allows for almost full aid absorption — an increase in the current account deficit net of aid—delivering the same effects as those of a flexible regime but with a necessary increase in inflation. Regardless of the regime, policies that limit absorption—and result in large accumulation of reserves—are welfare reducing: they help reduce the real appreciation (and inflation under the peg), but at the expense of reducing private consumption and investment, and therefore medium-term growth
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014 ISBN 9781484397008
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.5089/9781484397008.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Open Access Wunsch
    Stabi Berlin
  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework : An Application to Low-Income Countries (2010)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845895249
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1455201170 , 9781455201174
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 10/134
    Inhalt: Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010 ISBN 9781455201174
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.5089/9781455201174.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Open Access Wunsch
    Stabi Berlin
  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability : Putting together the Pieces (2012)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845831410
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475504071 , 9781475504071
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/144
    Inhalt: We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Berg, Andrew Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting together the Pieces Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012 ISBN 9781475504071
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.5089/9781475504071.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
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    Stabi Berlin
  • 9
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows : Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy (2010)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845896261
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451982097 , 9781451982091
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 10/65
    Inhalt: We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank''s reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Zanna, Luis-Felipe The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010 ISBN 9781451982091
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.5089/9781451982091.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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    Online-Ressource
    Open Access Wunsch
    Stabi Berlin
  • 10
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis : The Case of Zambia (2012)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_84583357X
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475502842 , 9781475502848
    Serie: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/94
    Inhalt: We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. We characterize monetary policy as ""stop and go"": initially tight, subsequently loose. Simulations of the model broadly match the path of the economy during this period. We find that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. We study the factors driving the ""stop"" part of policy and derive policy implications for central banks in low-income countries
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Benes, Jaromir Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis: The Case of Zambia Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012 ISBN 9781475502848
    Sprache: Englisch
    DOI: 10.5089/9781475502848.001
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
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    Online-Ressource
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    Stabi Berlin
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