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  • Brandenburg  (16)
  • FU Berlin  (16)
  • Bibliothek im Kontor
  • Guillemette, Yvan  (16)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Horizon 2060 : Perspectives de croissance économique globale à long terme : Un rapport "Objectif croissance (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936598
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Content: Cette étude présente les résultats d'un nouveau modèle de prévision de la croissance économique des pays de l'OCDE et des principaux pays hors OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans, ainsi que des déséquilibres globaux. Un scénario de référence tablant sur des réformes structurelles progressives et un assainissement budgétaire suffisant pour stabiliser les ratios dette publique/PIB est comparé à d'autres scénarios comprenant des réformes plus profondes des politiques publiques. Une des conclusions principales de cet exercice est que la croissance des pays du G20 non membres de l'OCDE continuera de dépasser celle des pays membres, mais que la différence s'amenuisera au cours des prochaines décennies. Parallèlement, les 50 prochaines années verront des changements majeurs dans la composition de l'économie mondiale. Faute de réforme ambitieuse des politiques publiques, des déséquilibres globaux dangereux pour la croissance apparaîtront. Cependant, un assainissement plus poussé des finances publiques et des réformes structurelles énergiques pourraient à la fois relever les niveaux de vie et réduire les risques de déraillement majeur de la croissance en réduisant les déséquilibres globaux
    Language: French
    DOI: 10.1787/5k8zngscq3kf-fr
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    Stabi Berlin
    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Labour supply of older people in advanced economies: the impact of changes to statutory retirement ages (2019)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047932712
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (43 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: A decomposition of changes to participation rates of 55-to-74 year-olds between 2002 and 2017 based on an estimated equation attributes more than two thirds of the median increase (of 10.9 percentage points) to rising life expectancy and educational attainment. About 1 percentage point is attributable to changes in statutory retirement ages, although part of the reason these effects are not larger is that in most countries, statutory retirement ages have not kept pace with life expectancy. Although difficult to incorporate in the empirical framework, evidence of falling disability pension rolls and reduced sensitivity of old-age participation to the level of unemployment suggests that the tightening of alternative early retirement pathways through unemployment or disability schemes has been a major factor in the turnaround in the participation rate of older workers. Projections indicate that participation rates for 55-to-74 year-olds should keep rising through 2030, by 3.4 percentage points for the median country. Rising life expectancy and educational attainment are projected to make the largest contributions, more than compensating for the negative contribution of population ageing in most countries
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/b9f8d292-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    Online Resource
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Long-Term Growth Scenarios (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935027
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (90 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935335
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration of potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. For the most severely affected economies, the financial crisis is estimated to have reduced potential output by more than 2% via this transmission mechanism. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, over a period when the use of conventional macro policy instruments was constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competition-friendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/0c62cc26-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The long game: Fiscal outlooks to 2060 underline need for structural reform (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047928173
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (44 Seiten) , 21 x 28cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers
    Content: This paper updates the long-term scenarios to 2060 last published in July 2018, with a special focus on fiscal sustainability and risks. In a baseline economic and fiscal scenario, trend real GDP growth for the OECD + G20 area declines from around 3% post-COVID to 1½ per cent in 2060, mainly due to a deceleration of large emerging-market economies. Meanwhile, secular trends such as population ageing and the rising relative price of services will keep adding pressure on government budgets. Without policy changes, maintaining current public service standards and benefits while keeping public debt ratios stable at current levels would increase fiscal pressure in the median OECD country by nearly 8 percentage points of GDP between 2021 and 2060, and much more in some countries. Policy scenarios show that reforms to labour market and retirement policies could help boost living standards and alleviate future fiscal pressures. An ambitious reform package combining labour market reforms to raise employment rates with reforms to eliminate early retirement pathways and keep effective retirement ages rising by two thirds of future gains in life expectancy could halve the projected increase in fiscal pressure in the median country, even after taking into account future spending pressures associated with ageing
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/a112307e-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060 (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047931640
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (51 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers
    Content: This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. This scenario is then used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, including better governance and educational attainment in the large emerging-market economies and competition-friendly product market and labour market reforms in OECD economies. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms not only boost living standards but, by raising the employment rate, also help alleviate fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Another scenario illustrates the potential positive impact of linking the pensionable age to life expectancy on the participation rate of older workers, and in particular that of women. Additional scenarios illustrate the potential economic gains from raising public investment and spending more on research and development. A final 'negative' scenario shows how slipping back on trade liberalisation - returning to 1990 average tariff rates - might depress standards of living everywhere
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/b4f4e03e-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Policy Options to Durably Resolve Euro Area Imbalances (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047934638
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (26 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: A simple econometric framework is presented linking current account balances of euro area countries to intra and extra euro area competitiveness, cyclical positions, fiscal positions and the oil price. The framework is then used to cyclically-adjust observed current account balances and illustrate the scale of the additional adjustments to competitiveness and/or fiscal balances required in the euro area periphery to bring structural current account balances to levels compatible with sustainable net external debt levels. In Spain and Portugal, cost competitiveness relative to the rest of the euro area would need to improve by about 30%, and by more than twice that in Greece. In peripheral countries, a combination of structural reforms to boost productivity and enhance the flexibility of labour markets, ambitious fiscal consolidation and reductions in labour taxes could substantially facilitate the rebalancing process and reduce the extent to which the burden of adjustment is reliant on further prolonged demand weakness. Surplus and/or strong competitiveness countries could help by likewise making labour and product markets more flexible, accepting above-normal inflation for an extended period and boosting demand, perhaps through reduced fiscal austerity
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/5k49lcnzkn20-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Insights from OECD Phillips curve equations on recent inflation outcomes (2019)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935532
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (39 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority of OECD countries, but the magnitude of the effect is typically weak. A corollary is that the effect of labour market slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank's target, although some experimentation suggests that alternative proxies for expectations sometimes work better and there is some evidence that persistent under-shooting of inflation has led to some de-anchoring of expectations from the target, especially in the euro area. For most OECD countries, a measure of the global output gap is both statistically significant and strongly preferred to a domestic gap measure in explaining the wedge between headline and core inflation, although domestic gaps are strongly preferred in explaining core inflation. Various forms of non-linearity in the Phillips curve provide possible explanations for recent weak inflation outcomes, but statistical testing provides only limited support for such explanations
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/d1e97b18-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935626
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: The paper describes the fiscal framework used in long-term economic scenarios, with some emphasis on revisions made since the 2013 vintage of the long-term model. Long-term projections for public spending on pensions, health and long-term care are now separate from other primary expenditure and sourced from previous OECD work taking account of population ageing and other cost pressures. Other primary expenditure are assumed to remain constant in real terms on a per capita basis, rather than remaining stable as a share of GDP. This difference is important for long-term fiscal projections because government finances are sensitive to the employment rate, whereas expenditure is linked to the total population. A fiscal rule adjusts government revenue to ensure that public debt eventually stabilises as a share of GDP, making government revenue as a share of GDP the preferred indicator of future fiscal pressure
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/8eddfa18-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects : A Going for Growth Report (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935754
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers
    Content: This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/5k8zxpjsggf0-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
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