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  • Brandenburg  (16)
  • FU Berlin  (16)
  • Guillemette, Yvan  (16)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Horizon 2060 : Perspectives de croissance économique globale à long terme : Un rapport "Objectif croissance (2012)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936598
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Content: Cette étude présente les résultats d'un nouveau modèle de prévision de la croissance économique des pays de l'OCDE et des principaux pays hors OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans, ainsi que des déséquilibres globaux. Un scénario de référence tablant sur des réformes structurelles progressives et un assainissement budgétaire suffisant pour stabiliser les ratios dette publique/PIB est comparé à d'autres scénarios comprenant des réformes plus profondes des politiques publiques. Une des conclusions principales de cet exercice est que la croissance des pays du G20 non membres de l'OCDE continuera de dépasser celle des pays membres, mais que la différence s'amenuisera au cours des prochaines décennies. Parallèlement, les 50 prochaines années verront des changements majeurs dans la composition de l'économie mondiale. Faute de réforme ambitieuse des politiques publiques, des déséquilibres globaux dangereux pour la croissance apparaîtront. Cependant, un assainissement plus poussé des finances publiques et des réformes structurelles énergiques pourraient à la fois relever les niveaux de vie et réduire les risques de déraillement majeur de la croissance en réduisant les déséquilibres globaux
    Language: French
    DOI: 10.1787/5k8zngscq3kf-fr
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    Stabi Berlin
    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Walking the tightrope: avoiding a lockdown while containing the virus (2020)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047929095
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (38 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: Empirical work described in this paper explains the daily evolution of the reproduction rate, R, and mobility for a large sample of countries, in terms of containment and public health policies. This is with a view to providing insight into the appropriate policy stance as countries prepare for a potentially protracted period characterised by new infection waves. While a comprehensive package of containment measures may be necessary when the virus is widespread and can have a large effect on reducing R, they also have effect on mobility and, by extension, economic activity. A wide-ranging package of public health policies - with an emphasis on comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation, but also including mask-wearing and policies directed at vulnerable groups, especially those in care homes - offer the best approach to avoiding a full lockdown while containing the spread of the virus. Such policies may, however, need to be complemented by selective containment measures (such as restricting large public events and international travel or localised lockdowns) both to contain local outbreaks and because implementing some of the recommended public health policies may be difficult to achieve or have unacceptable social costs
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/9cc22d8c-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047934234
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth. Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis, the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration in potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. Circumstantial evidence suggests that a misallocation of capital in the pre-crisis period also contributed to the slowdown in capital stock growth, particularly among the most severely affected countries. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, at a time when the use of conventional macro policy instruments has become increasingly constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competitionfriendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwvz0smq45-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Saving, investment, capital stock and current account projections in long-term scenarios (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047934594
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (63 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account. The saving rate is determined according to an estimated equation which suggests that demographics, captured by the old-age dependency rate and life expectancy, is a major driver, with additional effects from the fiscal balance, labour productivity growth, the net oil trade balance, the availability of credit and the level of social protection. The evolution of the business sector capital stock depends on the economy's cyclical position, product market regulation, employment protection legislation and the user cost of capital, and may be constrained by current account deficits depending on the degree of capital account openness. Business sector investment is derived from the capital stock projection via the usual stock-flow identity. The public sector capital stock-to-output ratio is assumed to be constant in the baseline scenario, but a public investment shock can be simulated in alternative scenarios. The current account balance is obtained as the difference between national investment and saving, and in turn determines the evolution of the net international investment position. A global interest rate premium helps to bring global saving and investment into balance
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/aa519fc9-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Policy Options to Durably Resolve Euro Area Imbalances (2013)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047934638
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (26 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: A simple econometric framework is presented linking current account balances of euro area countries to intra and extra euro area competitiveness, cyclical positions, fiscal positions and the oil price. The framework is then used to cyclically-adjust observed current account balances and illustrate the scale of the additional adjustments to competitiveness and/or fiscal balances required in the euro area periphery to bring structural current account balances to levels compatible with sustainable net external debt levels. In Spain and Portugal, cost competitiveness relative to the rest of the euro area would need to improve by about 30%, and by more than twice that in Greece. In peripheral countries, a combination of structural reforms to boost productivity and enhance the flexibility of labour markets, ambitious fiscal consolidation and reductions in labour taxes could substantially facilitate the rebalancing process and reduce the extent to which the burden of adjustment is reliant on further prolonged demand weakness. Surplus and/or strong competitiveness countries could help by likewise making labour and product markets more flexible, accepting above-normal inflation for an extended period and boosting demand, perhaps through reduced fiscal austerity
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/5k49lcnzkn20-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935335
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration of potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. For the most severely affected economies, the financial crisis is estimated to have reduced potential output by more than 2% via this transmission mechanism. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, over a period when the use of conventional macro policy instruments was constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competition-friendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/0c62cc26-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Insights from OECD Phillips curve equations on recent inflation outcomes (2019)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935532
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (39 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority of OECD countries, but the magnitude of the effect is typically weak. A corollary is that the effect of labour market slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank's target, although some experimentation suggests that alternative proxies for expectations sometimes work better and there is some evidence that persistent under-shooting of inflation has led to some de-anchoring of expectations from the target, especially in the euro area. For most OECD countries, a measure of the global output gap is both statistically significant and strongly preferred to a domestic gap measure in explaining the wedge between headline and core inflation, although domestic gaps are strongly preferred in explaining core inflation. Various forms of non-linearity in the Phillips curve provide possible explanations for recent weak inflation outcomes, but statistical testing provides only limited support for such explanations
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/d1e97b18-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047935626
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: The paper describes the fiscal framework used in long-term economic scenarios, with some emphasis on revisions made since the 2013 vintage of the long-term model. Long-term projections for public spending on pensions, health and long-term care are now separate from other primary expenditure and sourced from previous OECD work taking account of population ageing and other cost pressures. Other primary expenditure are assumed to remain constant in real terms on a per capita basis, rather than remaining stable as a share of GDP. This difference is important for long-term fiscal projections because government finances are sensitive to the employment rate, whereas expenditure is linked to the total population. A fiscal rule adjusts government revenue to ensure that public debt eventually stabilises as a share of GDP, making government revenue as a share of GDP the preferred indicator of future fiscal pressure
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/8eddfa18-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A revised approach to productivity convergence in long-term scenarios (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936880
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (55 Seiten)
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: The paper describes revisions to the trend labour efficiency component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. The main goal of the revision is to add more policy and institutional determinants in the equation to enrich the scenarios that can be constructed. In the proposed equation, equilibrium trend labour efficiency depends on a broad measure of the quality of institutions and governance (the World's Bank rule of law indicator), human capital (based on average years of schooling attainment), product market regulation (PMR), openness to trade adjusted for country size, the stability of the macroeconomic framework (based on inflation and its variance), income inequality (based on GINI coefficients) as well as domestic and global research and development (via accumulated stocks of R&D). Apart from the innovation effects, the sizes of the other effects are jointly estimated in a conditional convergence framework with a sample of about 120 countries, without the use of country fixed effects. Rule of law and openness are also estimated to influence the speed of convergence toward the long-term equilibrium
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/0b8947e3-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936969
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables - house prices and credit - have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm0qwpqmz34-en
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
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