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Format: 1 Online-Ressource (360 Seiten)

ISBN: 9783030749309

Note: Intro -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- About This Book -- Discussion of Key Terms and Notation -- Scientific Notation of Numbers -- References -- Third-Party Links in this Section -- Contents -- Authors and Contributor -- About the Authors -- Contributor -- Acronyms -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 A Bit of Historic Perspective and a Few Important Terms -- 1.2 The Culprits of All Our Evils -- 1.3 Clear Definitions Are Key -- 1.4 The Book Plan -- Appendix -- References -- Part I State of Affairs -- 2 Mankind, Risks and Planning -- 2.1 What Constitutes a Priority? -- 2.2 Real-Life Examples of Tactical and Strategic Planning -- 2.2.1 Hurricanes and Related Flooding -- 2.2.2 Volcanic Ash Cloud -- 2.2.3 Rain, Storms and Flooding -- 2.2.4 Design, Procedures and Monitoring -- 2.3 Summary of Examples of Tactical and Strategic Planning -- Appendixes -- References -- 3 The Context of Divergence -- 3.1 Mythological, Biblical and Recent Catastrophes -- 3.1.1 The Ten Plagues of Egypt: The Return -- 3.1.2 Super-Volcanos -- 3.2 Emerging Considerations on New/old Exposures -- 3.2.1 Asteroid-Earth Collisions -- 3.2.2 Solar Storms -- 3.2.3 2020 -- 3.3 Reporting Divergent Risks -- 3.4 Goal of Convergent Leadership in a Divergent Risk World: The Example of Digital Transformation -- Appendix -- References -- Part II Divergent Exposures, the Public and Ethics -- 4 Business-as-Usual Versus Divergent Hazards -- 4.1 Credible Events and Standard Levels of Mitigation -- 4.2 German Metaphors for Risks -- 4.3 Talking About Return Period is a Disservice to the Public -- 4.4 The Force Majeure Myths -- Appendix -- References -- 5 Corporate Risks and Exposures Versus the Public's Wants and Reactions -- 5.1 Corporate Risks and Exposures -- 5.2 Health, Well-Being and Resiliency of Business and for People -- 5.2.1 Current International Standards for Mitigating Risk Associated with People , 5.2.2 Risk Management for a Healthier Society -- 5.3 What People Want -- 5.3.1 The CIM 2015 Conference Workshop -- 5.3.2 The London "Managing Risks" Conference -- 5.3.3 Public Hearing for the Giant Mine -- 5.3.4 The Sendai Framework -- 5.4 A Note on Communication and Transparency -- 5.4.1 Communication -- 5.4.2 Transparency -- 5.5 A Note on Ethics and Risk Assessment -- 5.5.1 General Ethics -- 5.5.2 Geoethics -- Appendix -- References -- Part III Convergent Assessment of Exposures -- 6 System Definition in a Convergent Platform -- 6.1 Definition of the "Soft" System -- 6.1.1 Social Dimensions of the System -- 6.1.2 Legal Dimensions of the System -- 6.2 Physical System Definition -- 6.2.1 The Emergence of Systems -- 6.2.2 How to Dissect Your System -- 6.3 A Note on Interdependencies -- 6.3.1 Internal Interdependency -- 6.3.2 External Interdependencies -- Appendix -- References -- 7 Comprehensive Hazard Identification -- 7.1 Standard Methods for Hazard Identification -- 7.1.1 Leveraging Technology for Archival Discovery -- 7.1.2 Workshops and Interviews -- 7.1.3 Monitoring -- 7.2 Methods for Hazard Identification -- 7.2.1 Satellites -- 7.2.2 Big Data, Thick Data and AI -- 7.3 AI and Machine Learning -- 7.4 Hazards from Divergent Phenomena -- Appendix -- References -- 8 Defining Probabilities of Events -- 8.1 Probabilities of One Event -- 8.1.1 Initial Estimates -- 8.1.2 First Estimate of Probabilities After an Event Following a Long Uneventful Period -- 8.1.3 Linking Frequency and Probabilities -- 8.1.4 Updating Probabilities (Bayesian Approaches) -- 8.1.5 Summary of Elemental Probabilities -- 8.2 Probability of Failure in a Portfolio -- 8.2.1 Independent Elements -- 8.2.2 Dependent Elements -- 8.2.3 Summary of Conclusions on Portfolios of Elements -- Appendix -- References -- 9 Evaluating Consequences -- 9.1 Dimensions of Failures , 9.2 Examples of Consequences Estimates -- Appendix -- References -- Part IV Tactical and Strategic Planning for Convergent/Divergent Reality -- 10 Tolerance and Acceptability -- 10.1 Historic tolerance thresholds -- 10.1.1 Examples of Constant-Value Acceptable and/or Tolerance Thresholds -- 10.1.2 Examples of Acceptable-and/or Tolerance-Threshold Curves -- 10.1.3 Examples of Monetary Acceptable and/or Tolerance Thresholds Curves -- 10.2 Modern Risk Tolerance -- 10.2.1 Corporate Risk Tolerance (CRT) -- 10.2.2 Societal Risk Tolerance -- Appendix -- References -- 11 Convergent Risk Assessment for Divergent Exposures -- 11.1 Expectations -- 11.1.1 Enhanced Resilience -- 11.1.2 How Often Should a Residual Risk Assessment Be Performed? -- 11.2 Who Should Perform a Risk Assessment? -- 11.3 How to Perform a Risk Assessment? -- 11.3.1 Synergistic Methodologies -- 11.3.2 Using the ORE Platform -- Appendix -- References -- 12 Defining Manageable-Unmanageable and Strategic Risk -- 12.1 What to do with those risks families? -- 12.2 Beyond risk assessments -- 12.2.1 Net present value versus risk as a key decision parameter -- 12.2.2 Improving project cost evaluations -- Appendix -- References -- Part V Convergent Assessment for Divergent Exposures: Case Studies -- 13 Objectives of the Case Studies -- Appendix -- 14 Case Study 1: Railroad RR -- 14.1 The client's request -- 14.2 Success Metric (Failure) and Consequences Dimensions -- 14.3 System Definition -- 14.4 Gathering Existing Information -- 14.5 Requesting Further Necessary Information -- 14.6 Hazard Identification (HI) -- 14.7 Risk Model Design -- 14.7.1 Case A: Distribution-free Computation of BI -- 14.7.2 Case B: When the Distribution is Known -- 14.8 Results and Communications -- 14.9 Recommendations and Conditions of Validity -- Appendix -- 15 Case Study 2: Terminal -- 15.1 The Client's Request , 15.2 Success Metric (Failure) and Consequences Dimensions -- 15.3 System Definition -- 15.4 Gathering Existing Information -- 15.5 Requesting Further Necessary Information -- 15.6 Hazard Identification (HI) -- 15.7 Risk Model Design -- 15.8 Results and Communications -- 15.8.1 Risk and Intolerable Risks -- 15.8.2 Roadmap -- 15.8.3 Possible Mitigation Tactics -- 15.9 Recommendations and Conditions of Validity -- Appendix -- References -- 16 Case Study 3: Convergent Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) on Divergent Risks -- 16.1 The Client's Request -- 16.2 Success Metric (Failure) and Consequences Dimensions -- 16.3 System Definition -- 16.4 Gathering Existing Information -- 16.5 Requesting further necessary information -- 16.6 Hazard Identification (HI) -- 16.7 Risk Model Design -- 16.8 Results and Communications -- 16.8.1 Divergence: Climate Change -- 16.8.2 Divergence: Cyber-Attack, Communication And Consequences -- 16.9 Recommendations and Conditions of Validity -- Appendix -- 17 Conclusions and Path Forward -- References -- Appendix A Making Sense of Probabilities and Frequencies -- A.1 Defining Probabilities and Frequencies -- A.2 Making Sense of Probabilities and Frequencies -- Appendix B Risk Assessments Don'ts -- B.1 Don't Declare a System "Safe" -- B.2 Don't Accept Incremental Answers -- B.3 Don't Call Unpredictable What Indeed Is Predictable -- B.4 Don't Jump to Risks: Hazards Come First! -- B.5 Do Not Consider Consequences of Failures as One-Dimensional -- B.6 Don't Forget to Define Performance, Success and Failure Criteria -- B.7 Don't Use Common Practice Matrix Approaches (PIGs, FMEAs) -- B.7.1 Probability Impact Graphs Deceitful -- B.7.2 Newly Recognized Risk Matrices Deficiencies -- B.7.3 Can We Solve the Deficiencies of Risk Matrices? -- B.7.4 The Final Word -- References

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Oboni, Franco Convergent Leadership-Divergent Exposures Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2021 ISBN 9783030749293

Language: English