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  • 1
    UID:
    gbv_1658382714
    Umfang: 1 online resource (181 pages)
    Ausgabe: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 9780833040886
    Inhalt: An overview of higher-level decisionmaking and modern methods to improve decision support.
    Inhalt: Cover -- Preface -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Acronyms -- Chapter One - Introductions -- Objective -- Definition and Scope -- Descriptive Versus Prescriptive Research -- Approach in This Monograph -- Chapter Two - Human Decisionmaking -- How to Think About Decisionmaking -- Images of the Decision Process -- The Problems of Heuristics and Biases -- Availability Heuristic -- Representativeness Heuristic -- Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic -- Memory Biases -- Adjustment Biases -- Presentation Biases -- The Naturalistic School -- Military and National-Security OperationalDecisionmaking -- Chapter Three - Classic Analysis Concepts and Their Evolution -- Decision Analysis and Game Theory -- Decision Analysis and Utilities -- Game Theory -- Systems Analysis -- History and Early References -- Defining Characteristics -- Discussion -- Modern Examples -- Policy Analysis -- History and Early References -- Defining Characteristics -- Discussion -- Modern Examples -- Summary of Classic Analysis Components of DecisionScience -- Chapter Four - Advanced Decision Science for Analysis -- Introduction -- Structure of This Chapter -- Understanding the System -- The Problem of Deep Uncertainty -- Interaction and Iteration -- A Revised Process Model in the Theory of Decision Support -- Broad Methods -- Increasing Creativity and Imaginativeness in Planning -- Enriching System Modeling -- Planning for Adaptiveness -- Organizing Around Command and Control and Related Networking -- Enablers -- Multiresolution Modeling and Families of Models -- Agent-Based Modeling -- Modular Composable Systems -- Decision-Support Technology -- Chapter Five - the Research Frontier: Reconciling Analytic and Intuitive Considerations -- Introduction -- Comparing Decisionmaking Paradigms -- The Value of Synthesis -- Elements of Synthesis.
    Anmerkung: Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
    Weitere Ausg.: ISBN 9780833038081
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 9780833038081
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Electronic books
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    UID:
    gbv_1658281896
    Umfang: 1 online resource (202 pages)
    ISBN: 9780833045898
    Inhalt: This monograph presents and illustrates in some detail an analytical framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews and describes new enabling tools to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military Services. The Building Blocks to Composite Options Tool (BCOT) is used to generate and screen preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) enables users to evaluate in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. The concepts are illustrated with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). Further research is recommended in four areas that promise to have a high payoff for defense planning: analysis cutting across capability areas; strategic-level portfolio analysis; advancing the science of exploratory analysis; and refinement of BCOT and PAT to make them easier to use, understand, modify, and maintain and also to enrich their utility for exploratory analysis and to incorporate new techniques for portfolio analysis developed in the fields of economics and business planning.
    Inhalt: Cover -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations and Acronyms -- Glossary of Terminology -- Chapter One - Introduction -- Objectives -- Structure of This Monograph -- Chapter Two - Background: The Capabilities-Development Process -- Context: DoD's Capabilities-Development Process -- Problems with the Current Process -- Historical Successes in Capability Development -- Past Recommendations and Recent Changes -- Past Recommendations for Change -- A Recent Change: Concept Decision Reviews -- Chapter Three - A Framework and a Generic Terms of Reference -- What Should a Capability-Area Review Accomplish? -- Elements of the Generic Analytic Process -- Define the Capability Area and Related Missions -- Characterize Operational Needs in a Scenario Space -- Define CONOPS and Critical Components for Options -- Generate and Screen Candidate Options -- Evaluate the Options in DIME-Sensitive Portfolio Analysis -- Characterize Shortfalls, Opportunities, and Surpluses -- Add Options: Remedies and Possible Reductions -- Iterate -- Chapter Four - Tools to Enable the Framework -- Systems Engineering, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis, and Experiments -- Capability Models -- Generating and Screening Candidate Options -- Portfolio-Analysis Tools -- Tailoring Analysis for Different Contexts -- Chapter Five - A Notional Example: Global Strike -- Defining Global Strike -- Key Attributes -- Historical Examples -- Timeliness Requirements -- Defining a Parameterized Scenario Space for Global Strike -- Timeliness, Target Character, and Number of Weapons -- A Scenario Set That Stresses All Key Factors -- Defining CONOPS and Critical Components for Global Strike -- Critical Components of Capability -- Concepts of Operations -- Identifying, Evaluating, and Comparing Global Strike Options -- The Options Themselves.
    Anmerkung: Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
    Weitere Ausg.: ISBN 9780833042149
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 9780833042149
    Weitere Ausg.: Print version Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Electronic books
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    UID:
    gbv_1696543207
    Umfang: 1 online resource (251 pages)
    ISBN: 9780833058775
    Inhalt: Using and testing a conceptual model that draws on social science and particularly social movement theory, this volume examines public support for al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist movement, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey, and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. The authors discuss which factors were most salient across cases, how their importance varied in each case, and how this understanding can inform strategy.
    Inhalt: Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction -- Background -- Objectives and Approach -- Seeing the Work in a System Context -- Concepts of Validation and Improvement -- Challenges -- Approach -- Structure of the Monograph -- CHAPTER TWO: A Conceptual Model -- The Concept of Factor Trees -- Initial Factor Trees for the Study -- Enhancements Drawn from Social Movement Theory -- Major Elements of Social Movement Theory -- Using the Elements as a Diagnostic Lens -- The Final Conceptual Model of Our Study -- Anticipating Conclusions -- The Narrative -- The Relative Importance of Factors -- Future Research: Modeling the Extent of Influence -- Appendix to Chapter Two -- CHAPTER THREE: The Case of al-Qa'ida -- Introduction -- Purpose and Background -- Methodology -- A Factor Tree for Public Support of al-Qa'ida -- Attractions -- Perceived Legitimacy of Violence -- Acceptability of Costs and Risks -- Effectiveness of the Organization: Public Support Through the Lens of Social Movement Theory -- Al-Qa'ida's Vulnerabilities -- Conclusions -- CHAPTER FOUR: Public Support for the Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan -- Introduction -- Purpose -- Methodology -- Background -- Empirical Content Analysis -- Structuring the Data -- Frequency of Factor Mentions and Co-Occurrences -- Factors Affecting Public Support -- Motivations -- Perceived Legitimacy of Violence -- Acceptability of Costs and Risks -- Effectiveness of the Organization: Public Support Through the Lens of Social Movement Theory -- Conclusions -- CHAPTER FIVE: Public Support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey -- Introduction -- Background and Purpose -- Methodology -- Factors Affecting Public Support -- Motivations for Supporting Group or Cause -- Perceived Legitimacy of Violence.
    Anmerkung: Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
    Weitere Ausg.: ISBN 9780833058690
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 9780833058690
    Sprache: Englisch
    Schlagwort(e): Electronic books
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    UID:
    gbv_1696482003
    Umfang: 1 online resource (75 pages)
    ISBN: 9780833050779
    Inhalt: This report offers research and recommendations on ways to measure the overall efforts of the national border-security enterprise between ports of entry. Focusing on three missions--illegal drug control, counterterrorism, and illegal migration--this report recommends ways to measure performance of U.S. border-security efforts in terms of interdiction, deterrence, and exploiting networked intelligence.
    Inhalt: Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter One - Introduction -- Chapter Two - General Missions, Focus Missions, and Criteria for Measuring Effectiveness -- 2.1 Understanding Related DHS Missions and Operations -- 2.1.1 The Breadth of Enduring Missions -- 2.1.2 Focus Missions -- 2.2 Framing Border Security Within a System of Solutions to National Missions -- 2.3 Measuring Contributions to Border Security -- Chapter Three - A Conceptual Model of Border Security as a Foundation for Measurement -- 3.1 Defining Border Security as Controlling Illegal Flows -- 3.2 Core Functions of Border-Security Activities -- 3.2.1 Interdiction -- 3.2.2 Deterrence -- 3.2.3 Networked Intelligence -- 3.3 Identifying Measures for Border-Security Functions -- Chapter Four - Contributions of Border Security to Drug Control, Counterterrorism, and Illegal Migration -- 4.1 Border-Security Contributions to Drug Control -- 4.1.1 National Drug Control Policy and Capabilities -- 4.1.2 Contributions of Interdiction, Deterrence, and Networked Intelligence to Drug Control -- 4.1.3 Non-DHS Agencies and Factors on Which Border-Security Outcomes Depend -- 4.2 Border-Security Contributions to Counterterrorism -- 4.2.1 National Counterterrorism Policy and Capabilities -- 4.2.2 Contributions of Border Interdiction, Deterrence, and Networked Intelligence -- 4.2.3 Non-DHS Factors on Which Border-Security Outcomes Depend -- 4.3 Border-Security Contributions to Preventing Illegal Migration -- 4.3.1 National Immigration Policy and Capabilities -- 4.3.2 Contributions of Border Interdiction, Deterrence, and Networked Intelligence -- 4.3.3 Non-DHS Factors on Which Border-Security Outcomes Depend -- Chapter Five - Recommended Measures for Controlling Drugs, Immigration, and Border Crossing by Terrorists.
    Anmerkung: Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
    Weitere Ausg.: ISBN 9780833049773
    Weitere Ausg.: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 9780833049773
    Sprache: Englisch
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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