In:
Journal of Clinical Oncology, American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), Vol. 35, No. 4_suppl ( 2017-02-01), p. 354-354
Abstract:
354 Background: In advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (aPDAC), there is no consensual strategy for second-line chemotherapy (L2). Better discrimination of overall survival (OS) may help clinical decision-making in this setting. We aimed to predict OS from the beginning of L2 and to assess the benefit from chemotherapy among the identified risk groups. Methods: Analyses were derived from all consecutive aPDAC patients treated at Besancon hospital, France, during 11 years. The association of 50 parameters with OS was evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. Based on the final model, a prognostic nomogram and score were developed, and externally validated in patients receiving L2 in three other French centers, between 2010 and 2016. Results: The development cohort included 462 patients. 395 patients (85%) were eligible for L2, of which 261 (66%) were treated. Age, smoking status, liver metastases, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, pain, jaundice, ascites, duration of first-line chemotherapy, and type of L2 regimen were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS in L2. The final model exhibited excellent calibration and discrimination (C-index = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 0.78), and robust internal validity. Based on the final model, a prognostic nomogram was built. The nomogram total points were input into a prognostic score that delineated three risk groups with median OS of 11.3, 3.6 and 1.4 months (P 〈 0.0001). By applying the score in the population eligible for L2 but untreated, the chemotherapy benefit was significant across all groups but with a magnitude of the effect decreased significantly from low to high-risk groups (P = 0.0123 for treatment and risk groups interaction term). The clinical benefit centered accuracy of the final model was confirmed by a decision curve analysis. The score ability to discriminate OS was externally confirmed in 162 patients, by identifying the same risk groups. Conclusions: These prognostic tools in patients with aPDAC can accurately predict OS before administration of L2 and strengthen the prognosis-based decision making for clinicians.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0732-183X
,
1527-7755
DOI:
10.1200/JCO.2017.35.4_suppl.354
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)
Publication Date:
2017
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2005181-5
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