In:
Ambio, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 52, No. 5 ( 2023-05), p. 976-994
Abstract:
Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by 〉 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios ( $$-\,23\%$$ - 23 % , $$-\,32\%$$ - 32 % and $$-\,36\%$$ - 36 % , correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0044-7447
,
1654-7209
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-022-01827-8
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
120759-3
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2040524-8
SSG:
23
SSG:
12
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