In:
GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, Oekom Publishers GmbH, Vol. 2, No. 3 ( 1993-05-01), p. 128-138
Abstract:
In this article two purposes should be fulfilled: First we shall analyze the error tendencies of humans when confronted with the challenges of coping with very complex and uncertain domains of reality. From the results of experimental and case studies we try to derive a coherent
picture of the slips, lapses and mistakes in different phases (goal elaboration, hypothesis formation, planning, decision making, control of success, self-reflexion) of the organization of action in complex environments. Additionally we try to find the reasons for these error tendencies. Behind a lot of very different forms of behaviour exhibited by humans when confronted with uncertain and very complex environments we recognize a small number of basic conditions for the human cognitive “machinery”, namely the restricted capacity of human conscious thinking, the
overweight of the actual motive, the tendency to guard one's own feeling of competence and – quite simple – forgetting, which makes it difficult for us to identify the laws of time series. Eventually we investigate what could be done for the augmentation of the capability to
cope with complexity and uncertainty. We recommend the use of computer-simulations of complex realities as a “wind-tunnel” to develop and to try out strategies to cope with very complex problems.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0940-5550
Language:
English
Publisher:
Oekom Publishers GmbH
Publication Date:
1993
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2901363-X
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2111556-4
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1114994-2
SSG:
14
SSG:
5,21
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