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  • 1
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 24, No. 4 ( 2024-02-27), p. 2443-2464
    Abstract: Abstract. Satellite observations and ground-based measurements have indicated a high variability in the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Middle East region in recent decades. In the period that extends from 2003 to 2012, observations show a positive AOD trend of 0.01–0.04 per year or a total increase of 0.1–0.4 per decade. This study aimed to investigate if the observed trend was also captured by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. To this end, we examined changes in the simulated dust emissions and dust AOD during this period. To understand the factors driving the increase in AOD in this region we also examined meteorological and surface parameters important for dust emissions, such as wind fields and soil moisture. Two GEOS model simulations were used in this study: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis (with meteorological and aerosol AOD data assimilated) and MERRA-2 Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Replay (with meteorology constrained by the MERRA-2 reanalysis but without aerosol assimilation). We did not find notable changes in the modeled 10 m wind speed and soil moisture. However, analysis of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data did show an average decrease of 8 % per year in the region encompassing Syria and Iraq, which prompted us to quantify the effects of vegetation on dust emissions and AOD in the Middle East region. This was done by performing a sensitivity experiment in which we enhanced dust emissions in grid cells where the NDVI decreased. The simulation results supported our hypothesis that the loss of vegetation cover and the associated increase in dust emissions over Syria and Iraq can partially explain the increase in AOD downwind. The model simulations indicated dust emissions need to be 10-fold larger in those grid cells in order to reproduce the observed AOD and trend in the model.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 124, No. 14 ( 2019-07-27), p. 8043-8064
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 124, No. 14 ( 2019-07-27), p. 8043-8064
    Abstract: CESM with K14 dust emission scheme has the best agreement with dust extinction profiles and DOD from CALIPSO in East Asia Large uncertainties exist in observations from CALIPSO and have significant impacts on the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions CESM underestimates dust surface concentrations in East Asia due to the its inability to capture strong surface wind events
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 14 ( 2017-07), p. 5419-5454
    Abstract: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA’s terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO. This paper provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system and various performance metrics. Among the advances in MERRA-2 relevant to IESA are the assimilation of aerosol observations, several improvements to the representation of the stratosphere including ozone, and improved representations of cryospheric processes. Other improvements in the quality of MERRA-2 compared with MERRA include the reduction of some spurious trends and jumps related to changes in the observing system and reduced biases and imbalances in aspects of the water cycle. Remaining deficiencies are also identified. Production of MERRA-2 began in June 2014 in four processing streams and converged to a single near-real-time stream in mid-2015. MERRA-2 products are accessible online through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 18 ( 2021-09-24), p. 14177-14197
    Abstract: Abstract. The Amazon experiences fires every year, and the resulting biomass burning aerosols, together with cloud particles, influence the penetration of sunlight through the atmosphere, increasing the ratio of diffuse to direct photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) reaching the vegetation canopy and thereby potentially increasing ecosystem productivity. In this study, we use the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with coupled aerosol, cloud, radiation, and ecosystem modules to investigate the impact of Amazon biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity, as well as the role of the Amazon's clouds in tempering this impact. The study focuses on a 7-year period (2010–2016) during which the Amazon experienced a variety of dynamic environments (e.g., La Niña, normal years, and El Niño). The direct radiative impact of biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity – called here the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect – is found to increase Amazonian gross primary production (GPP) by 2.6 % via a 3.8 % increase in diffuse PAR (DFPAR) despite a 5.4 % decrease in direct PAR (DRPAR) on multiyear average during burning seasons. On a monthly basis, this increase in GPP can be as large as 9.9 % (occurring in August 2010). Consequently, the net primary production (NPP) in the Amazon is increased by 1.5 %, or ∼92 Tg C yr−1 – equivalent to ∼37 % of the average carbon lost due to Amazon fires over the 7 years considered. Clouds, however, strongly regulate the effectiveness of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect. The efficiency of this fertilization effect is the highest in cloud-free conditions and linearly decreases with increasing cloud amount until the cloud fraction reaches ∼0.8, at which point the aerosol-influenced light changes from being a stimulator to an inhibitor of plant growth. Nevertheless, interannual changes in the overall strength of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect are primarily controlled by the large interannual changes in biomass burning aerosols rather than by changes in cloudiness during the studied period.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 5
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 22 ( 2020-11-17), p. 13835-13855
    Abstract: Abstract. Dust aerosol is important in modulating the climate system at local and global scales, yet its spatiotemporal distributions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) are highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of dust extinction profiles and dust optical depth (DOD) simulated by the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2), the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) against satellite retrievals from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). We find that CESM1, CESM2, and E3SMv1 underestimate dust transport to remote regions. E3SMv1 performs better than CESM1 and CESM2 in simulating dust transport and the northern hemispheric DOD due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust. CESM2 performs the worst in the Northern Hemisphere due to its lower dust emission than in the other two models but has a better dust simulation over the Southern Ocean due to the overestimation of dust emission in the Southern Hemisphere. DOD from MERRA-2 agrees well with CALIOP DOD in remote regions due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust and the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. The large disagreements in the dust extinction profiles and DOD among CALIOP, MODIS, and MISR retrievals make the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions challenging. Our study indicates the importance of representing dust emission, dry/wet deposition, and size distribution in GCMs in correctly simulating dust spatiotemporal distributions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 6
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 6 ( 2018-06-19), p. 2315-2332
    Abstract: Abstract. The NEMS GFS Aerosol Component Version 2.0 (NGACv2) for global multispecies aerosol forecast has been developed at the National Centers of Environment Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with the NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and the University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNYA). This paper describes the continuous development of the NGAC system at NCEP after the initial global dust-only forecast implementation (NGAC version 1.0, NGACv1). With NGACv2, additional sea salt, sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosol species were included. The smoke emissions are from the NESDIS STAR's Global Biomass Burning Product (GBBEPx), blended from the global biomass burning emission product from a constellation of geostationary satellites (GBBEP-Geo) and GSFC's Quick Fire Emission Data Version 2 from a polar-orbiting sensor (QFED2). This implementation advanced the global aerosol forecast capability and made a step forward toward developing a global aerosol data assimilation system. The aerosol products from this system have been used by many applications such as for regional air quality model lateral boundary conditions, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) physical retrievals, and the global solar insolation estimation. Positive impacts have been seen in these applications.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 7
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 19 ( 2019-10-09), p. 12545-12567
    Abstract: Abstract. Fire emissions are a critical component of carbon and nutrient cycles and strongly affect climate and air quality. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes in fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table based on field and laboratory studies in various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. The evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products. They can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas and low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Before the 1850s, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions, which is consistent with the multi-source merged historical reconstructions used as input data for CMIP6. On the other hand, the trends are quite different among DGVMs for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land use and land cover change (LULCC). Our study provides an important dataset for further development of regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions, analyses of the historical changes in fire emissions and their uncertainties, and quantification of the role of fire emissions in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 8
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 16 ( 2019-08-26), p. 10773-10785
    Abstract: Abstract. Atmospheric sea salt plays important roles in marine cloud formation and atmospheric chemistry. We performed an integrated analysis of NASA GEOS model simulations run with the GOCART aerosol module, in situ measurements from the PALMS and SAGA instruments obtained during the NASA ATom campaign, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from the AERONET Marine Aerosol Network (MAN) and from MODIS satellite observations to better constrain sea salt in the marine atmosphere. ATom measurements and GEOS model simulations both show that sea salt concentrations over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have a strong vertical gradient, varying up to 4 orders of magnitude from the marine boundary layer to free troposphere. The modeled residence times suggest that the lifetime of sea salt particles with a dry diameter of less than 3 µm is largely controlled by wet removal, followed by turbulent process. During both boreal summer and winter, the GEOS-simulated sea salt mass mixing ratios agree with SAGA measurements in the marine boundary layer (MBL) and with PALMS measurements above the MBL. However, comparison of AOD from GEOS with AERONET/MAN and MODIS aerosol retrievals indicated that the model underestimated AOD over the oceans where sea salt dominates. The apparent discrepancy of slightly overpredicted concentration and large underpredicted AOD could not be explained by biases in the model RH affecting the particle hygroscopic growth, as modeled RH was found to be comparable to or larger than the in situ measurements. This conundrum could at least partially be explained by the difference in sea salt size distribution; the GEOS simulation has much less sea salt percentage-wise in the smaller particle size range and thus less efficient light extinction than what was observed by PALMS.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 9
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 105, No. 6 ( 2024-06), p. E991-E1003
    Abstract: Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here, we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM 2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 10
    In: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 14, No. 9 ( 2021-09-24), p. 6159-6179
    Abstract: Abstract. A quantitative comparison study for Raman lidar and ceilometer observations, and for model simulations of mass concentration estimates of smoke particles is presented. Layers of biomass burning aerosol particles were observed in the lower troposphere, at 2 to 5 km height on 4 to 6 June 2019, over Kuopio, Finland. These long-range-transported smoke particles originated from a Canadian wildfire event. The most pronounced smoke plume detected on 5 June was intensively investigated. Optical properties were retrieved from the multi-wavelength Raman polarization lidar PollyXT. Particle linear depolarization ratios (PDRs) of this plume were measured to be 0.08±0.02 at 355 nm and 0.05±0.01 at 532 nm, suggesting the presence of partly coated soot particles or particles that have mixed with a small amount of dust or other non-spherical aerosol type. The layer-mean PDR at 355 nm (532 nm) decreased during the day from ∼0.11 (0.06) in the morning to ∼0.05 (0.04) in the evening; this decrease with time could be linked to the particle aging and related changes in the smoke particle shape properties. Lidar ratios were derived as 47±5 sr at 355 nm and 71±5 sr at 532 nm. A complete ceilometer data processing for a Vaisala CL51 ceilometer is presented from a sensor-provided attenuated backscatter coefficient to particle mass concentration (including the water vapor correction for high latitude for the first time). Aerosol backscatter coefficients (BSCs) were measured at four wavelengths (355, 532, 1064 nm from PollyXT and 910 nm from CL51). Two methods, based on a combined lidar and sun-photometer approach, are applied for mass concentration estimations from both PollyXT and the ceilometer CL51 observations. In the first method, no. 1, we used converted BSCs at 532 nm (from measured BSCs) by corresponding measured backscatter-related Ångström exponents, whereas in the second method, no. 2, we used measured BSCs at each wavelength independently. A difference of ∼12 % or ∼36 % was found between PollyXT and CL51 estimated mass concentrations using method no. 1 or no. 2, showing the potential of mass concentration estimates from a ceilometer. Ceilometer estimations have an uncertainty of ∼50 % in the mass retrieval, but the potential of the data lies in the great spatial coverage of these instruments. The mass retrievals were compared with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorological and aerosol reanalysis. The inclusion of dust (as indicated by MERRA-2 data) in the retrieved mass concentration is negligible considering the uncertainties, which also shows that ceilometer observations for mass retrievals can be used even without exact knowledge of the composition of the smoke-dominated aerosol plume in the troposphere.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1867-8548
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2505596-3
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