In:
Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 600, No. 7887 ( 2021-12-02), p. 127-132
Abstract:
Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally 1–7 . Although a limited number of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were reported in January and February 2020 (refs. 8,9 ), the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, combined with a slow growth in testing capacity and porous travel screening 10 , left many countries vulnerable to unmitigated, cryptic transmission. Here we use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the early dispersal of infections and the temporal windows of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 and onset of local transmission in Europe and the USA. We find that community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was likely to have been present in several areas of Europe and the USA by January 2020, and estimate that by early March, only 1 to 4 in 100 SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected by surveillance systems. The modelling results highlight international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, with possible introductions and transmission events as early as December 2019 to January 2020. We find a heterogeneous geographic distribution of cumulative infection attack rates by 4 July 2020, ranging from 0.78% to 15.2% across US states and 0.19% to 13.2% in European countries. Our approach complements phylogenetic analyses and other surveillance approaches and provides insights that can be used to design innovative, model-driven surveillance systems that guide enhanced testing and response strategies.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0028-0836
,
1476-4687
DOI:
10.1038/s41586-021-04130-w
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Date:
2021
detail.hit.zdb_id:
120714-3
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1413423-8
SSG:
11
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