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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    E-Journals of Meteorology ; 2021
    In:  E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2021-10-05), p. 1-27
    In: E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, E-Journals of Meteorology, Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2021-10-05), p. 1-27
    Abstract: Severe thunderstorms occurred across portions of the central United States on 18 March 1925. The deadly, long-track Tri-State tornado was the most publicized storm event of 18 March and remains the most significant single tornado in the nation’s history. There has been only one formal paper regarding the Tri-State tornado and its meteorological setting. Results are presented from a recent study of the event that was done drawing upon all relevant Weather Bureau data that could be obtained. The storms of 18 March were associated with a rapidly moving, synoptic cyclone that was not unusually intense. There appear to be no outstanding aspects of the meteorological setting that would explain the extreme character of the Tri-State tornado. Surface analyses indicate: a) the tornado was produced by a long-lived supercell that developed very near the center of the cyclone, possibly at the intersection of a warm front and a distinct dryline; b) the south-to-north temperature gradient ahead of the cyclone was very pronounced due to cooling produced by early morning storms and precipitation; c) the tornadic supercell tracked east-northeastward very rapidly at about 60 to 65 mph (~28 ms-1), moving farther away from the cyclone with time; and d) the storm remained very close to the surface warm front. Previous reports concerning the tornado and its setting had inaccurate surface analyses and surface pressures, and incorrectly stated that the tornado had formed in cold air well west of the surface cyclone. As  the supercell and dryline moved rapidly eastward, the northward movement of the warm front kept the tornadic supercell within a very favorable storm environment for several hours. Apparently, this consistent, time and space concatenation of the supercell, the warm front, and the dryline for more than three hours was extremely unusual.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1559-5404
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: E-Journals of Meteorology
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2374821-7
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  • 2
    In: Meteorological Monographs, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 59 ( 2019-01-01), p. 18.1-18.41
    Abstract: The history of severe thunderstorm research and forecasting over the past century has been a remarkable story involving interactions between technological development of observational and modeling capabilities, research into physical processes, and the forecasting of phenomena with the goal of reducing loss of life and property. Perhaps more so than any other field of meteorology, the relationship between researchers and forecasters has been particularly close in the severe thunderstorm domain, with both groups depending on improved observational capabilities. The advances that have been made have depended on observing systems that did not exist 100 years ago, particularly radar and upper-air systems. They have allowed scientists to observe storm behavior and structure and the environmental setting in which storms occur. This has led to improved understanding of processes, which in turn has allowed forecasters to use those same observational systems to improve forecasts. Because of the relatively rare and small-scale nature of many severe thunderstorm events, severe thunderstorm researchers have developed mobile instrumentation capabilities that have allowed them to collect high-quality observations in the vicinity of storms. Since much of the world is subject to severe thunderstorm hazards, research has taken place around the world, with the local emphasis dependent on what threats are perceived in that area, subject to the availability of resources to study the threat. Frequently, the topics of interest depend upon a single event, or a small number of events, of a particular kind that aroused public or economic interests in that area. International cooperation has been an important contributor to collecting and disseminating knowledge. As the AMS turns 100, the range of research relating to severe thunderstorms is expanding. The time scale of forecasting or projecting is increasing, with work going on to study forecasts on the seasonal to subseasonal time scales, as well as addressing how climate change may influence severe thunderstorms. With its roots in studying weather that impacts the public, severe thunderstorm research now includes significant work from the social science community, some as standalone research and some in active collaborative efforts with physical scientists. In addition, the traditional emphases of the field continue to grow. Improved radar and numerical modeling capabilities allow meteorologists to see and model details that were unobservable and not understood a half century ago. The long tradition of collecting observations in the field has led to improved quality and quantity of observations, as well as the capability to collect them in locations that were previously inaccessible. Much of that work has been driven by the gaps in understanding identified by theoretical and operational practice.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0065-9401
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 416187-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2630885-X
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    E-Journals of Meteorology ; 2021
    In:  E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol. 8, No. 2 ( 2021-10-05), p. 1-33
    In: E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, E-Journals of Meteorology, Vol. 8, No. 2 ( 2021-10-05), p. 1-33
    Abstract: The “Tri-State tornado” event of 18 March 1925, with an official death toll of 695 people, generally is accepted as the deadliest single tornado in United States recorded history. The officially accepted damage path is 352 km (219 mi) long. The entire damage path was not surveyed by the Weather Bureau in 1925 to determine if it truly was continuous, and the nature of the tornado event and the storm that produced it are not well known. Therefore, as much new data as possible have been gathered about this event in all three states along and near the purported damage path. Detailed information about the locations where damage was reported and the type of damage (recorded as “damage points”) was obtained from: interviews and driving surveys with first- and secondhand eyewitnesses, many local 1925 and later newspapers, local books, and photographs and other materials found in local libraries and genealogy centers. After plotting all damage points, a potential damage path of 378 km (235 mi) was indicated. However, 32 gaps ≥1.6 km (1 mi) appeared between consecutive damage points. This paper presents all the damage points, and indicates which of the gaps might be “real” (i.e., where one tornado ended and another tornado developed), as well as those gaps more likely to have been a continuous tornado. We speculate that path segments at the beginning of the potential damage path in eastern Shannon County, MO, and at the end of the potential path in central Pike County, IN, were both likely from separate tornadoes. In the very rural and hilly terrain of southeast Missouri, there were areas with a minimum of human development and no known witnesses to the tornado (parts of Reynolds, Iron and Madison Counties). This led to several relatively long damage path gaps 〉 3.2 km (2 mi). The existence of relatively long gaps prevents confidence in the continuity of the first section of the path. Beginning in central Madison County, MO, and continuing to Pike County, IN, a distance of 280 km (174 mi), there are no gaps 〉 3.2 km (2 mi), more strongly suggesting that the tornado was likely continuous for that path segment. Because of having the highest density of damage reports and the most eyewitness reports, the part of the main damage path that is 243 km (151 mi) long from central Bollinger County, MO to the west edge of Pike County, IN can be considered likely a continuous path. The tornado event was associated with what began as a classic supercell in Missouri, transitioning to high-precipitation mode in Illinois and Indiana. Witnesses saw a wedge tornado along most of the damage path and a large multivortex tornado in some areas. At two places in Illinois, a satellite tornado may have appeared at about the same time as the primary tornado was passing nearby. Another previously unreported tornado with a 32-km (20-mi) damage path occurred in Washington and Jackson Counties, IN, whose path and trajectory suggests that it may also have been produced by the same supercell. This new tornado started about 75 min later and about 105 km (65 mi) east-northeast of the apparent end of the Tri-State tornado damage path in Pike County, IN.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1559-5404
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: E-Journals of Meteorology
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2374821-7
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    E-Journals of Meteorology ; 2021
    In:  E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol. 2, No. 5 ( 2021-09-28), p. 1-16
    In: E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, E-Journals of Meteorology, Vol. 2, No. 5 ( 2021-09-28), p. 1-16
    Abstract: A major challenge in weather research is associated with the size of the data sample from which evidence can be presented in support of some hypothesis. This issue arises often in severe storm research, since severe storms are rare events, at least in any one place. Although large numbers of severe storm events (such as tornado occurrences) have been recorded, some attempts to reduce the impact of data quality problems within the record of tornado occurrences also can reduce the sample size to the point where it is too small to provide convincing evidence for certain types of conclusions. On the other hand, by carefully considering what sort of hypothesis to evaluate, it is possible to find strong enough signals in the data to test conclusions relatively rigorously. Examples from tornado occurrence data are used to illustrate the challenge posed by the interaction between sample size and data quality, and how it can be overcome by being careful to avoid asking more of the data than what they legitimately can provide. A discussion of what is needed to improve data quality is offered.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1559-5404
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: E-Journals of Meteorology
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2374821-7
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    E-Journals of Meteorology ; 2021
    In:  E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol. 6, No. 2 ( 2021-10-02), p. 1-28
    In: E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, E-Journals of Meteorology, Vol. 6, No. 2 ( 2021-10-02), p. 1-28
    Abstract: A method for ranking severe weather outbreaks of any type using a linear-weighted multivariate scheme has been introduced recently. The results of using this ranking method indicated that the scheme was capable of identifying the most significant severe weather outbreaks. However, the inclusion of days in which numerous reports were widely dispersed across a large region, or in which multiple clusters of reports that were geographically widely separated, was problematic. Though the studies included a variable (the so-called middle-50% parameter) that was effective in identifying these cases, a new way was needed to account for these days in a manner that agrees with subjective perceptions of these events. A candidate scheme introduced here uses nonparametric kernel density estimation to identify clusters of severe weather reports associated with a single severe weather event. Clusters with relatively few reports or sparse coverage within the region associated with the event then can be excluded quite easily. This technique also allows for multiple, regionally-separated clusters of severe reports to be considered in one day. After identifying clusters of severe weather events from 1960-2008, the cases are ranked and classified in a way similar to past research, using multivariate linear-weighting and cluster analysis, respectively. Results suggest that the most significant severe weather outbreaks again are identified appropriately, and the cases could be classified as major tornado, hail-dominant, wind-dominant, and minor mixed-mode events.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1559-5404
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: E-Journals of Meteorology
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2374821-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    E-Journals of Meteorology ; 2021
    In:  E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2021-09-30), p. 1-39
    In: E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, E-Journals of Meteorology, Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2021-09-30), p. 1-39
    Abstract: In previous work, severe weather outbreaks have been classified either as major tornado outbreaks or as primarily nontornadic outbreaks, but the large majority of such events are of a mixed character.  This study proposes a reproducible method for ranking all types of severe weather outbreaks from the period 1960-2006.  Numerous nonmeteorological artifacts exist in the severe weather reports archived during this period, and many of the variables used to formulate the multivariate indices had to be detrended to reduce the effect of secular trends.  The resulting outbreak rankings indicate that the methodology presented herein is able to distinguish the most significant severe weather outbreaks from intermediate outbreak days and days with a large amount of geographic scatter in the severe reports.  The rankings of the most severe outbreaks and those outbreak days with a large degree of spatial scatter exhibit only limited variability when the selection of parameters and their weights are modified, but a relatively high degree of volatility is noted with the intermediate cases.  This result suggests there is relatively little difference in the severity of these intermediate events.  However, the particular modes of severe weather in these events can be quite different.  A k-means cluster analysis of the outbreak days, using a four-dimensional representation of the multivariate indices developed, indicates that outbreak days can be separated into five groups:  major tornado, wind-dominated, hail-dominated, multi-modal, and days with considerable spatial scatter of the severe reports.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1559-5404
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: E-Journals of Meteorology
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2374821-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    E-Journals of Meteorology ; 2021
    In:  E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol. 1, No. 3 ( 2021-09-28), p. 1-22
    In: E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, E-Journals of Meteorology, Vol. 1, No. 3 ( 2021-09-28), p. 1-22
    Abstract: This paper discusses our concept of the proper (and improper) use of diagnostic variables in severe-storm forecasting. A framework for classification of diagnostic variables is developed, indicating the limitations of such variables and their suitability for operational diagnosis and forecasting. The utility of diagnostic indices and parameters as prognostic tools for forecasting is discussed, revealing the relevant issues in designing new diagnostic variables used for making weather forecasts. Finally, criteria required to claim that a new diagnostic variable represents an effective prognostic variable are proposed. We argue that few, if any, diagnostic variables have met these criteria for demonstrated utility at prognosis.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1559-5404
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: E-Journals of Meteorology
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2374821-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    E-Journals of Meteorology ; 2021
    In:  E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol. 2, No. 4 ( 2021-09-28), p. 1-12
    In: E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, E-Journals of Meteorology, Vol. 2, No. 4 ( 2021-09-28), p. 1-12
    Abstract: Two cold fronts passed through central Oklahoma in late 2006, one on 29 November and the other on 7 December. Meteorograms for Norman, OK, show the two frontal passages had very different characteristics. The late November event was a textbook example, with the windshift and rapid temperature drop very close together in time. On the other hand, the early December event was unusual, showing a temperature rise after cold frontal passage. The reasons for this behavior in the December case are shown to be associated with the time of day and the ambient conditions in the planetary boundary layer at the time of the frontal passage. Shear-induced turbulence within the nocturnal boundary layer is likely responsible for the seemingly paradoxical initial temperature rise following passage of the cold front.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1559-5404
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: E-Journals of Meteorology
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2374821-7
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Scientific Research Publishing, Inc. ; 2013
    In:  Open Journal of Statistics Vol. 03, No. 05 ( 2013), p. 356-366
    In: Open Journal of Statistics, Scientific Research Publishing, Inc., Vol. 03, No. 05 ( 2013), p. 356-366
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2161-718X , 2161-7198
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Scientific Research Publishing, Inc.
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2680845-6
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2012
    In:  Weather Vol. 67, No. 4 ( 2012-04), p. 88-94
    In: Weather, Wiley, Vol. 67, No. 4 ( 2012-04), p. 88-94
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0043-1656
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202615-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2089182-9
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