In:
eLife, eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd, Vol. 7 ( 2018-02-27)
Abstract:
Influenza – or ‘the flu’ – is a contagious disease which sweeps across the globe like clockwork, claiming tens of thousands of lives. This is known as ‘seasonal flu’. Many scientists have tried to identify the factors that spark these yearly outbreaks. Some past studies have found that seasonal flu occurs when air that is normally humid turns dry, suggesting weather patterns play an important part. Other research has shown that air travel contributes to the flu spreading across the world. However, these studies typically focus on just one or two factors on their own. It is still not clear how exactly these factors combine to drive outbreaks, and then sustain the wave of infection. To address this, Chattopadhyay et al. analyze the medical histories of 150 million American people over a decade, combining this information with large datasets about the different factors that trigger flu outbreaks. This includes detailed data about air travel and weather patterns, as well as census data that describe features of the population. Patterns of movement are also examined, for example by processing billions of Twitter messages “tagged” with a location. Chattopadhyay et al. used all of these datasets to model outbreaks of the flu in the United States, and see which factors play the biggest role. It turns out that yearly outbreaks of seasonal flu are a result of a combination of elements. Some factors interact to help trigger the start of the wave, like humid weather in a highly populated area with nearby airports. Other factors, such how people move, encourage the spread of the infection. Finally, certain features of the population, for example how closely knitted a community is, make specific areas of the country more susceptible to the arrival of the disease. Overall, some of the most important elements of the model relate to the characteristics of the populations, the weather, the type of virus, and the number of short-distance journeys (rather than air travel). Understanding how and why outbreaks occur can help policy-makers design strategies that reduce the spread and impact of seasonal flu, which could potentially save thousands of lives. Ultimately, the model developed by Chattopadhyay et al. could be used to test whether these policies would work before they are implemented in the real world.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
2050-084X
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.001
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.002
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.003
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.004
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.005
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.006
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.007
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.008
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.009
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.010
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.014
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.011
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.012
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.013
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.015
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.016
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.017
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.018
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.019
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.020
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.021
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.022
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.023
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.024
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.025
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.026
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.027
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.028
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.029
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.030
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.031
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.032
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.30756.033
Language:
English
Publisher:
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Publication Date:
2018
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2687154-3
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