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  • 1
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-03-15), p. 457-593
    Abstract: Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2578793-7
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  • 2
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-03-31), p. 633-685
    Abstract: Abstract. Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change and strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping the biogeochemical functioning and thus also the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in the Baltic Sea. First, the rising nutrient loads from land in the second half of the 20th century led to eutrophication and spreading of hypoxic and anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification of the water column and limited ventilation of deep-water layers made favourable conditions. Since the 1980s the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea have been continuously decreasing. This, however, has so far not resulted in significant improvements in oxygen availability in the deep regions, which has revealed a slow response time of the system to the reduction of the land-derived nutrient loads. Responsible for that is the low burial efficiency of phosphorus at anoxic conditions and its remobilization from sediments when conditions change from oxic to anoxic. This results in a stoichiometric excess of phosphorus available for organic-matter production, which promotes the growth of N2-fixing cyanobacteria and in turn supports eutrophication. This assessment reviews the available and published knowledge on the biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea. In its content, the paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, and P) external loads, their transformations in the coastal zone, changes in organic-matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability), and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. In addition to that, this paper focuses also on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure and functioning of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. This comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying knowledge gaps and future research needs in the field of marine biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2578793-7
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  • 3
    In: Regional Environmental Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 19, No. 4 ( 2019-4), p. 1073-1086
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1436-3798 , 1436-378X
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1480672-1
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stockholm University Press ; 2015
    In:  Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography Vol. 67, No. 1 ( 2015-12-01), p. 24284-
    In: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Stockholm University Press, Vol. 67, No. 1 ( 2015-12-01), p. 24284-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1600-0870
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Stockholm University Press
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2026987-0
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stockholm University Press ; 2014
    In:  Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography Vol. 66, No. 1 ( 2014-12-01), p. 24908-
    In: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Stockholm University Press, Vol. 66, No. 1 ( 2014-12-01), p. 24908-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1600-0870
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Stockholm University Press
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2026987-0
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2001
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Vol. 106, No. C12 ( 2001-12-15), p. 30997-31016
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 106, No. C12 ( 2001-12-15), p. 30997-31016
    Abstract: As mixing plays a dominant role for the physics of an estuary like the Baltic Sea (seasonal heat storage, mixing in channels, deepwater mixing), different mixing parameterizations for use in three‐dimensional (3‐D) Baltic Sea models are discussed. Within the Swedish regional climate modeling program, SWECLIM, a 3‐D coupled ice‐ocean model for the Baltic Sea has been coupled with an improved version of the two‐equation k ‐ε turbulence model using a corrected dissipation term, flux boundary conditions to include the effect of a turbulence enhanced layer due to breaking surface gravity waves, and a parameterization for breaking internal waves. Results of multiyear simulations are compared with observations. The seasonal thermocline (the main focus of this paper) is simulated satisfactory. During the stagnation period between 1983 and 1993, simulated salinity in the lower layer of the Baltic Sea decreases as observed. Unsolved problems of the k ‐ε model are discussed. To replace the controversial equation for dissipation, the performance of a hierarchy of k models has been tested and compared with the k ‐ε model. In addition, it is shown that the results of the 1‐D turbulence submodel depend very much on the dimensionality of the hydrodynamic model. Using the same turbulence parameterization, vertical velocity shear and density gradients are simulated differently in 1‐D column models compared to 3‐D ocean circulation models. Finally, the impact of two mixing parameterizations on Baltic Sea climate is discussed.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2001
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033040-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094104-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2130824-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016813-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2403298-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161666-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161665-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094181-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094167-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094197-0
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 110, No. C2 ( 2005)
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 110, No. C2 ( 2005)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033040-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094104-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2130824-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016813-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2403298-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161666-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161665-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094181-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094167-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094197-0
    SSG: 16,13
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2019
    In:  Frontiers in Earth Science Vol. 6 ( 2019-1-9)
    In: Frontiers in Earth Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 6 ( 2019-1-9)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-6463
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2741235-0
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2022
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 9 ( 2022-3-24)
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 9 ( 2022-3-24)
    Abstract: The Baltic Sea is a coastal sea with the world’s largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic bottom area. Although hypoxia has periodically occurred during the sea’s 8,000-year history, the rapid rise in the population and intensified agriculture after World War II have led to nutrient input levels that have made hypoxia a permanent, widespread phenomenon. Efforts since the 1980s considerably reduced nutrient inputs in the Baltic Sea, but an improved ecological status in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea has yet to be achieved. In fact, hypoxic areas in those basins have reached record size and in some cases large euxinic areas have emerged. This study was based on a novel observational dataset comprising maps of hypoxic and euxinic areas of the Baltic Sea. The seasonal cycles of hypoxia and euxinia in the various sub-basins were investigated. The comparison of those maps with other observational and reanalysis datasets of hypoxia and euxinia revealed some discrepancies. Those discrepancies together with a pronounced interannual variability prevent the detection of robust trends in hypoxic and euxinic areas that would indicate an influence of decreasing nutrient inputs from the land and the atmosphere since the 1980s. A correlation analysis of physical drivers and hypoxic and euxinic areas suggests that climate change has already played an important role by enhancing oxygen depletion.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2023
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 10 ( 2023-8-11)
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 10 ( 2023-8-11)
    Abstract: The Baltic Sea is one of the marine systems suffering from pronounced man-made hypoxia due to the elevated nutrient loads from land. To mitigate hypoxia expansion and to return the Baltic Sea to a good environmental state, the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), regulating the waterborne and airborne nutrient input, was adopted by all states surrounding the Baltic Sea. However, at the moment, no significant shrinking of the hypoxic area is observed. In this study, two scenario simulations of the future state of the deep parts of the central Baltic Sea (deeper than 70 meters) were carried out, utilizing a 3-dimensional numerical model. Climate change effects on meteorology, hydrology, and oceanic state were not included. We focused on O 2 and H 2 S sources and sinks under different nutrient input scenarios. We found that under the BSAP scenario, all subbasins in the central Baltic Sea, especially the northern and western Gotland Basin, show significant improvement, namely, oxygenation and oxidation of the deposited reduced material, ceasing its advection to the upper layers and neighboring basins. We found that the nutrient loads are responsible for more than 60% and 80% of the O 2 and H 2 S sources and sinks variability, respectively, at the interannual time scale. We showed that the Baltic Sea could return to the initial state in 1948, but under the more rigorous 0.5 BSAP scenario (nutrient input is halved compared to the BSAP). However, since we observed no hysteresis effect, the system would probably reach the initial state but over a timeframe longer than the 71-year future simulation period.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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