In:
Journal of The Royal Society Interface, The Royal Society, Vol. 4, No. 12 ( 2007-02-22), p. 57-64
Abstract:
We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests—samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing the serological test data. The immune response of a host involves the production of antibodies in response to an antigen. Our analysis shows that great gerbils recovered from a plague infection are more likely to keep their antibodies to plague and survive throughout the summer-to-winter season than throughout the winter-to-summer season. Provided the seasonal mortality rates are similar (which seems to be the case based on a mortality analysis with abundance data), our finding indicates that the immune function of the sampled great gerbils is seasonal.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1742-5689
,
1742-5662
DOI:
10.1098/rsif.2006.0160
Language:
English
Publisher:
The Royal Society
Publication Date:
2007
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2156283-0
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