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Influence of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Solar Irradiance Variability in Northern Europe

Parding, Kajsa M. ; Liepert, Beate G. ; Hinkelman, Laura M. ; [et al.]

American Meteorological Society ; 2016

In: Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 11 ( 2016-06-01), p. 4229-4250

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In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 11 ( 2016-06-01), p. 4229-4250

Abstract: Observations have revealed strong variability of shortwave (SW) irradiance at Earth’s surface on decadal time scales, referred to as global dimming and brightening. Previous studies have attributed the dimming and brightening to changes in clouds and atmospheric aerosols. This study assesses the influence of atmospheric circulation on clouds and SW irradiance to separate the influence of “natural” SW variability from direct and, to some extent, indirect aerosol effects. The focus is on SW irradiance in northern Europe in summer and spring because there is little high-latitude SW irradiance during winter. As a measure of large-scale circulation the Grosswetterlagen (GWL) dataset, a daily classification of synoptic weather patterns, is used. Empirical models of normalized SW irradiance are constructed based on the GWL, relating the synoptic weather patterns to the local radiative climate. In summer, a temporary SW peak in the 1970s and subsequent dimming is linked to variations in the synoptic patterns over Scandinavia, possibly related to a northward shift in the North Atlantic storm track. In spring, a decrease of anticyclonic and increase of cyclonic weather patterns over northern Europe contributes to the dimming from the 1960s to 1990. At many sites, there is also a residual SW irradiance trend not explained by the GWL model: a weak nonsignificant residual dimming from the 1950s or 1960s to around 1990, followed by a statistically significant residual brightening. It is concluded that factors other than the large-scale circulation (e.g., decreasing aerosol emissions) also play an important role in northern Europe.

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0476.1

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0476.s1

RVK:

UA 4548

Language: Unknown

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Publication Date: 2016

detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7

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Climate change projections of maximum temperature in the pre-monsoon season in Bangladesh using statistical downscaling of global climate models

Rashid, M. Bazlur ; Hossain, Syed Shahadat ; Mannan, M. Abdul ; [et al.]

Copernicus GmbH ; 2021

In: Advances in Science and Research Vol. 18 ( 2021-07-13), p. 99-114

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In: Advances in Science and Research, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18 ( 2021-07-13), p. 99-114

Abstract: Abstract. The climate of Bangladesh is very likely to be influenced by global climate change. To quantify the influence on the climate of Bangladesh, Global Climate Models were downscaled statistically to produce future climate projections of maximum temperature during the pre-monsoon season (March–May) for the 21st century for Bangladesh. The future climate projections are generated based on three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The downscaling process is undertaken by relating the large-scale seasonal mean temperature, taken from the ERA5 reanalysis data set, to the leading principal components of the observed maximum temperature at stations under Bangladesh Meteorological Department in Bangladesh, and applying the relationship to the GCM ensemble. The in-situ temperature data has only recently been digitised, and this is the first time they have been used in statistical downscaling of local climate projections for Bangladesh. This analysis also provides an evaluation of the local data, and the local temperatures in Bangladesh show a close match with the ERA5 reanalysis. Compared to the reference period of 1981–2010, the projected maximum pre-monsoon temperature in Bangladesh indicate an increase by 0.7/0.7/0.7 ∘C in the near future (2021–2050) and 2.2/1.2/0.8 ∘C in the far future (2071–2100) assuming the RCP8.5/RCP4.5/RCP2.6 scenario, respectively.

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 1992-0636

URL: Article

DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-99-2021

DOI: 10.5194/asr-18-99-2021-supplement

Language: English

Publisher: Copernicus GmbH

Publication Date: 2021

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2409176-5

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Climate change and projections for the Barents region: what is expected to change and what will stay the same?

Benestad, Rasmus E ; Parding, Kajsa M ; Isaksen, Ketil ; [et al.]

IOP Publishing ; 2016

In: Environmental Research Letters Vol. 11, No. 5 ( 2016-05-01), p. 054017-

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In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 11, No. 5 ( 2016-05-01), p. 054017-

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 1748-9326

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054017

Language: Unknown

Publisher: IOP Publishing

Publication Date: 2016

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4

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Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. ; Piniewski, Mikołaj ; Mezghani, Abdelkader ; [et al.]

Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018

In: Acta Geophysica Vol. 66, No. 6 ( 2018-12), p. 1509-1523

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In: Acta Geophysica, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 66, No. 6 ( 2018-12), p. 1509-1523

Abstract: The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 1895-6572 , 1895-7455

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11600-018-0220-4

Language: English

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Publication Date: 2018

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2231673-5

SSG: 16,13

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Global hydro-climatological indicators and changes in the global hydrological cycle and rainfall patterns

Benestad, Rasmus E. ; Lussana, Cristian ; Lutz, Julia ; [et al.]

Public Library of Science (PLoS) ; 2022

In: PLOS Climate Vol. 1, No. 5 ( 2022-5-11), p. e0000029-

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In: PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 1, No. 5 ( 2022-5-11), p. e0000029-

Abstract: There are few commonly used indicators that describe the state of Earth’s global hydrological cycle and here we propose three indicators to capture how an increased greenhouse effect influences the global hydrological cycle and the associated rainfall patterns. They are: i) the 24-hr global total rainfall, ii) the global surface area with daily precipitation, and iii) the global mean precipitation intensity. With a recent progress in both global satellite observations and reanalyses, we can now estimate the global rainfall surface area to provide new insights into how rainfall intensity changes over time. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the global area of daily precipitation decreased from 43 to 41% of the global area between 1950 and 2020, whereas the total daily global rainfall increased from 1440 Gt to 1510 Gt per day. However, the estimated 24-hr global precipitation surface area varies when estimated from different reanalyses and the estimates are still uncertain. To further investigate historical variations in the precipitation surface area, we carried out a wavelet analysis of 24-hr precipitation from the ERA5 reanalysis that indicated how the rainfall patterns have changed over time. Our results suggest that individual precipitation systems over the globe have shrunk in terms of their spatial extent while becoming more intense throughout the period 1950–2020. Hence, the wavelet results are in line with an acceleration of the rate of the global hydrological cycle, combined with a diminishing global area of rainfall.

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 2767-3200

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g001

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g002

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g003

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g004

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g005

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g006

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g007

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.g008

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.t001

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.t002

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.s001

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.s002

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.s003

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.r001

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.r002

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000029.r003

Language: English

Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Publication Date: 2022

detail.hit.zdb_id: 3109435-1

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Correction to: Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. ; Piniewski, Mikołaj ; Mezghani, Abdelkader ; [et al.]

Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2019

In: Acta Geophysica Vol. 67, No. 1 ( 2019-2), p. 273-273

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In: Acta Geophysica, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 67, No. 1 ( 2019-2), p. 273-273

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 1895-6572 , 1895-7455

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11600-018-0234-y

Language: English

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Publication Date: 2019

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2231673-5

SSG: 16,13

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A simple equation to study changes in rainfall statistics

Benestad, Rasmus E ; Parding, Kajsa M ; Erlandsen, Helene B ; [et al.]

IOP Publishing ; 2019

In: Environmental Research Letters Vol. 14, No. 8 ( 2019-08-01), p. 084017-

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In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 14, No. 8 ( 2019-08-01), p. 084017-

Abstract: We test an equation for the probability of heavy 24 h precipitation amounts Pr ( X 〉 x ) as a function of the wet-day frequency and the wet-day mean precipitation. The expression was evaluated against 9817 daily rain gauge records world-wide and was subsequently used to derive mathematical expressions for different rainfall statistics in terms of the wet-day frequency and the wet-day mean precipitation. This framework comprised expressions for probabilities, mean, variance, and return-values. We differentiated these statistics with respect to time and compared them to trends in number of rainy days and the mean rainfall intensity based on 1875 rain gauge records with more than 50 years of valid data over the period 1961–2018. The results indicate that there has been a general increase in the probability of precipitation exceeding 50 mm/day. The main cause for this increase has been a boost in the intensity of the rain, but there were also some cases where it has been due to more rainy days. In some limited regions there has also been an increase in Pr ( X 〉 50 mm/day) that coincided with a decrease in the number of rainy days. We also found a general increasing trend in the variance and the 10-year return-value over 1961–2018 due to increasing wet-day frequency and wet-day mean precipitation.

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 1748-9326

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab2bb2

Language: Unknown

Publisher: IOP Publishing

Publication Date: 2019

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4

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Testing a simple formula for calculating approximate intensity-duration-frequency curves

Benestad, Rasmus E ; Lutz, Julia ; Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe ; [et al.]

IOP Publishing ; 2021

In: Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 4 ( 2021-04-01), p. 044009-

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In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 4 ( 2021-04-01), p. 044009-

Abstract: A simple formula for estimating approximate values of return levels for sub-daily rainfall is presented and tested. It was derived from a combination of simple mathematical principles, approximations and fitted to 10 year return levels taken from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves representing 14 sites in Oslo. The formula was subsequently evaluated against IDF curves from independent sites elsewhere in Norway. Since it only needs 24 h rain gauge data as input, it can provide approximate estimates for the IDF curves used to describe sub-daily rainfall return levels. In this respect, it can be considered as means of downscaling with respect to timescale, given an approximate power-law dependency between temporal scales. One clear benefit with this framework is that observational data is far more abundant for 24 h rain gauge records than for sub-daily measurements. Furthermore, it does not assume stationarity, and is well-suited for projecting IDF curves for a future climate.

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 1748-9326

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd4ab

Language: Unknown

Publisher: IOP Publishing

Publication Date: 2021

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4

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CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

Mezghani, Abdelkader ; Dobler, Andreas ; Haugen, Jan Erik ; [et al.]

Copernicus GmbH ; 2017

In: Earth System Science Data Vol. 9, No. 2 ( 2017-11-28), p. 905-925

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In: Earth System Science Data, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 9, No. 2 ( 2017-11-28), p. 905-925

Abstract: Abstract. The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km  ×  5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 1866-3516

URL: Article

DOI: 10.5194/essd-9-905-2017

DOI: 10.5194/essd-9-905-2017-supplement

Language: English

Publisher: Copernicus GmbH

Publication Date: 2017

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2475469-9

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GCMeval – An interactive tool for evaluation and selection of climate model ensembles

Parding, Kajsa M. ; Dobler, Andreas ; McSweeney, Carol F. ; [et al.]

Elsevier BV ; 2020

In: Climate Services Vol. 18 ( 2020-04), p. 100167-

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In: Climate Services, Elsevier BV, Vol. 18 ( 2020-04), p. 100167-

Type of Medium: Online Resource

ISSN: 2405-8807

URL: Article

DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100167

Language: English

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Publication Date: 2020

detail.hit.zdb_id: 2858351-6

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