In:
PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 3, No. 2 ( 2023-2-22), p. e0001607-
Abstract:
While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
2767-3375
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607.s008
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
3101394-6
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