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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessment of Contingent Liabilities and Their Impact on Debt Dynamics in South Africa (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048271399
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Content: The aim of this analysis is to quantify the losses from potential materialization of contingent liabilities by applying a new methodology for the case of South Africa and, to assess their impact on debt dynamics. Accordingly, we bring a novelty to this research by utilizing probabilities of distress, which is a different approach compared to the existing, already applied methodology. The central finding of the simulations conducted is that estimated losses from contingent liabilities, are significantly lower in the first year when they materialize compared to the existing applied methodology, and will gradually add up over time. Accordingly, the solvency and liquidity situation in the country will deteriorate. For example, the largest deterioration will occur in the debt to GDP ratio where the debt accumulation may be higher by 2.1 percent of GDP within three years, compared to the baseline projection. What is more concerning is that the debt trajectory is not stabilizing and losses incurred from materialization of contingent liabilities may become significant driving factor of debt accumulation in medium-term. Ultimately, the current estimates suggest that contingent liabilities may constitute a drag to fiscal policy in medium-term and their long-term accumulation may jeopardize the debt sustainability of the country. In that respect, this analysis suggests remedial measures and building protective buffers by the South African Treasury in the case CLs materialize
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/29910
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Online Access
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Contingent Liabilities Risk Management : A Credit Risk Analysis Framework for Sovereign Guarantees and On-Lending: Country Experiences from Colombia, Indonesia, Sweden, and Turkey (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048269178
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Content: Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees. Country experiences show that although sovereign risk managers can draw on insights from credit risk management in the private sector, academic literature, and practices in other countries, approaches to risk management need to be highly context-specific. Key differentiating factors include characteristics of the guarantee and on-lending portfolio, the sovereign's specific risk exposure, the availability of market information and data, and resources and capacity in the public sector. Developing a sound risk analysis and measurement framework requires significant investments in resources, capacity building, and time. Governments should view this process as iterative and long-term
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Bachmair, Fritz Florian Contingent Liabilities Risk Management: A Credit Risk Analysis Framework for Sovereign Guarantees and On-Lending: Country Experiences from Colombia, Indonesia, Sweden, and Turkey Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2016
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7538
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Online Access
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Managing South Africa's Exposure to Eskom : How to Evaluate the Credit Risk from the Sovereign Guarantees? (2019)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048274173
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (27 Seiten)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Content: The South African government offers various support mechanisms to support Eskom, the state-owned electric utility, and the independent power producers in providing low-cost electricity, including credit and payment guarantees. Guarantees constitute contingent liabilities to the government and pose risks to government finances. This note illustrates the methodologies explored by South Africa to assess the credit risk from guarantees extended to Eskom. To manage and closely monitor this risk, a dedicated Credit Risk directorate in the Asset and Liability Management division at the National Treasury of South Africa has implemented a risk assessment and management framework, supported by the World Bank Treasury. The team developed a sector-specific internal credit rating methodology to assess Eskom's creditworthiness. Additionally, the team developed a scenario analysis methodology to assess Eskom's ability to service debt from cash flows and cash reserves. The scenario analysis tool is currently used on an ad hoc basis to feed into the various scenarios that are considered for the budget process. Risk assessments are reported to the Fiscal Liabilities Committee on a quarterly basis for risk monitoring and to support recommendations for taking on new contingent liabilities, such as government guarantees. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee advises the minister of finance and is responsible for the determination of the processes and policies for approving guarantees and guarantee-like transactions. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee is generally mandated to promote the optimum management of the government's contingent liabilities, including guarantees. The implementation of further risk mitigation and monitoring tools, such as risk-based guarantee fees, budget allocations, and a contingency reserve account, is under discussion
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Bachmair, Fritz Florian Managing South Africa's Exposure to Eskom: How to Evaluate the Credit Risk from the Sovereign Guarantees? Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2019
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8703
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Online Access
    Open Access Request
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Managing South Africa's exposure to Eskom : how to evaluate the credit risk from the sovereign guarantees? (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Financial Advisory and Banking Department
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1665845759
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8703
    Content: The South African government offers various support mechanisms to support Eskom, the state-owned electric utility, and the independent power producers in providing low-cost electricity, including credit and payment guarantees. Guarantees constitute contingent liabilities to the government and pose risks to government finances. This note illustrates the methodologies explored by South Africa to assess the credit risk from guarantees extended to Eskom. To manage and closely monitor this risk, a dedicated Credit Risk directorate in the Asset and Liability Management division at the National Treasury of South Africa has implemented a risk assessment and management framework, supported by the World Bank Treasury. The team developed a sector-specific internal credit rating methodology to assess Eskom's creditworthiness. Additionally, the team developed a scenario analysis methodology to assess Eskom's ability to service debt from cash flows and cash reserves. The scenario analysis tool is currently used on an ad hoc basis to feed into the various scenarios that are considered for the budget process. Risk assessments are reported to the Fiscal Liabilities Committee on a quarterly basis for risk monitoring and to support recommendations for taking on new contingent liabilities, such as government guarantees. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee advises the minister of finance and is responsible for the determination of the processes and policies for approving guarantees and guarantee-like transactions. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee is generally mandated to promote the optimum management of the government's contingent liabilities, including guarantees. The implementation of further risk mitigation and monitoring tools, such as risk-based guarantee fees, budget allocations, and a contingency reserve account, is under discussion
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Bachmair, Fritz Florian Managing South Africa's Exposure to Eskom: How to Evaluate the Credit Risk from the Sovereign Guarantees? Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2019
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8703
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Online Access
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Contingent Liabilities Risk Management : A Credit Risk Analysis Framework for Sovereign Guarantees and On-Lending: Country Experiences from Colombia, Indonesia, Sweden, and Turkey (2016)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958143942402883
    Format: 1 online resource (45 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees. Country experiences show that although sovereign risk managers can draw on insights from credit risk management in the private sector, academic literature, and practices in other countries, approaches to risk management need to be highly context-specific. Key differentiating factors include characteristics of the guarantee and on-lending portfolio, the sovereign's specific risk exposure, the availability of market information and data, and resources and capacity in the public sector. Developing a sound risk analysis and measurement framework requires significant investments in resources, capacity building, and time. Governments should view this process as iterative and long-term.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7538
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    FU Berlin
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessment of Contingent Liabilities and Their Impact on Debt Dynamics in South Africa / (2018)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9960785625702883
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Content: The aim of this analysis is to quantify the losses from potential materialization of contingent liabilities by applying a new methodology for the case of South Africa and, to assess their impact on debt dynamics. Accordingly, we bring a novelty to this research by utilizing probabilities of distress, which is a different approach compared to the existing, already applied methodology. The central finding of the simulations conducted is that estimated losses from contingent liabilities, are significantly lower in the first year when they materialize compared to the existing applied methodology, and will gradually add up over time. Accordingly, the solvency and liquidity situation in the country will deteriorate. For example, the largest deterioration will occur in the debt to GDP ratio where the debt accumulation may be higher by 2.1 percent of GDP within three years, compared to the baseline projection. What is more concerning is that the debt trajectory is not stabilizing and losses incurred from materialization of contingent liabilities may become significant driving factor of debt accumulation in medium-term. Ultimately, the current estimates suggest that contingent liabilities may constitute a drag to fiscal policy in medium-term and their long-term accumulation may jeopardize the debt sustainability of the country. In that respect, this analysis suggests remedial measures and building protective buffers by the South African Treasury in the case CLs materialize.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/29910
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    Charité
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Contingent Liabilities Risk Management : A Credit Risk Analysis Framework for Sovereign Guarantees and On-Lending: Country Experiences from Colombia, Indonesia, Sweden, and Turkey (2016)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9958143942402883
    Format: 1 online resource (45 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees. Country experiences show that although sovereign risk managers can draw on insights from credit risk management in the private sector, academic literature, and practices in other countries, approaches to risk management need to be highly context-specific. Key differentiating factors include characteristics of the guarantee and on-lending portfolio, the sovereign's specific risk exposure, the availability of market information and data, and resources and capacity in the public sector. Developing a sound risk analysis and measurement framework requires significant investments in resources, capacity building, and time. Governments should view this process as iterative and long-term.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7538
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    Charité
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Managing South Africa's Exposure to Eskom : How to Evaluate the Credit Risk from the Sovereign Guarantees? (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9959013202002883
    Format: 1 online resource (27 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The South African government offers various support mechanisms to support Eskom, the state-owned electric utility, and the independent power producers in providing low-cost electricity, including credit and payment guarantees. Guarantees constitute contingent liabilities to the government and pose risks to government finances. This note illustrates the methodologies explored by South Africa to assess the credit risk from guarantees extended to Eskom. To manage and closely monitor this risk, a dedicated Credit Risk directorate in the Asset and Liability Management division at the National Treasury of South Africa has implemented a risk assessment and management framework, supported by the World Bank Treasury. The team developed a sector-specific internal credit rating methodology to assess Eskom's creditworthiness. Additionally, the team developed a scenario analysis methodology to assess Eskom's ability to service debt from cash flows and cash reserves. The scenario analysis tool is currently used on an ad hoc basis to feed into the various scenarios that are considered for the budget process. Risk assessments are reported to the Fiscal Liabilities Committee on a quarterly basis for risk monitoring and to support recommendations for taking on new contingent liabilities, such as government guarantees. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee advises the minister of finance and is responsible for the determination of the processes and policies for approving guarantees and guarantee-like transactions. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee is generally mandated to promote the optimum management of the government's contingent liabilities, including guarantees. The implementation of further risk mitigation and monitoring tools, such as risk-based guarantee fees, budget allocations, and a contingency reserve account, is under discussion.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8703
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    FU Berlin
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Managing South Africa's Exposure to Eskom : How to Evaluate the Credit Risk from the Sovereign Guarantees? (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9959013202002883
    Format: 1 online resource (27 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The South African government offers various support mechanisms to support Eskom, the state-owned electric utility, and the independent power producers in providing low-cost electricity, including credit and payment guarantees. Guarantees constitute contingent liabilities to the government and pose risks to government finances. This note illustrates the methodologies explored by South Africa to assess the credit risk from guarantees extended to Eskom. To manage and closely monitor this risk, a dedicated Credit Risk directorate in the Asset and Liability Management division at the National Treasury of South Africa has implemented a risk assessment and management framework, supported by the World Bank Treasury. The team developed a sector-specific internal credit rating methodology to assess Eskom's creditworthiness. Additionally, the team developed a scenario analysis methodology to assess Eskom's ability to service debt from cash flows and cash reserves. The scenario analysis tool is currently used on an ad hoc basis to feed into the various scenarios that are considered for the budget process. Risk assessments are reported to the Fiscal Liabilities Committee on a quarterly basis for risk monitoring and to support recommendations for taking on new contingent liabilities, such as government guarantees. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee advises the minister of finance and is responsible for the determination of the processes and policies for approving guarantees and guarantee-like transactions. The Fiscal Liabilities Committee is generally mandated to promote the optimum management of the government's contingent liabilities, including guarantees. The implementation of further risk mitigation and monitoring tools, such as risk-based guarantee fees, budget allocations, and a contingency reserve account, is under discussion.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8703
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    Charité
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Contingent Liabilities Risk Management : A Credit Risk Analysis Framework for Sovereign Guarantees and On-Lending—Country Experiences from Colombia, Indonesia, Sweden, and Turkey (2016)
    World Bank, Washington, DC
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1759654175
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Research Working Paper No. 7538
    Content: Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees. Country experiences show that although sovereign risk managers can draw on insights from credit risk management in the private sector, academic literature, and practices in other countries, approaches to risk management need to be highly context-specific. Key differentiating factors include characteristics of the guarantee and on-lending portfolio, the sovereign’s specific risk exposure, the availability of market information and data, and resources and capacity in the public sector. Developing a sound risk analysis and measurement framework requires significant investments in resources, capacity building, and time. Governments should view this process as iterative and long-term
    Note: Colombia , Indonesia , Sweden , Turkey , English , en_US
    Language: English
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Stabi Berlin
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