Format:
1 Online-Ressource (9 Seiten)
ISSN:
2041-1723
,
2041-1723
Content:
High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven
reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used
process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has
been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the
observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day
430 C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines
observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the
hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a
negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical
conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the
future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures 430 C. Elevated
CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.
Content:
Peer Reviewed
Note:
Nachgenutzt gemäß den CC-Bestimmungen des Lizenzgebers bzw. einer im Dokument selbst enthaltenen CC-Lizenz.
In:
London : Nature Publishing Group, 8,13931, 2041-1723
Language:
Undetermined
URN:
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/19585-4
URL:
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