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  • 1
    UID:
    gbv_729987086
    Format: 59 p
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Content: The paper first reviews the conceptual framework underlying different measures of structural unemployment as well as alternative empirical methods that have been used to provide estimates of them. Drawing on this review, it goes on to develop a method for estimating time-varying NAIRUs across a range of OECD countries using a Kalman filter. It then discusses the resulting econometric estimates, and the scope for their further refinement given the associated range of uncertainties. Recent trends in the NAIRU estimates are reviewed: they fell in many countries in the second half of the 1990s, although actual unemployment has remained well above the NAIRU for a majority of countries throughout much of the 1990s, particularly in Europe. Finally, the relevance of such measures to analysing inflation developments and monetary policy is discussed.
    In: OECD, OECD journal: economic studies, Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008, Vol. 2001, no. 2, p. 171-216, 1995-2856
    Additional Edition: Parallelausg. L'estimation du taux de chômage structurel des pays de l'OCDE
    Language: English
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  • 2
    UID:
    gbv_729995267
    Format: 53 p
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Content: Après l’euphorie boursière de la fin des années 90, les cours des actions se sont repliés, dans l’ensemble, depuis 2001. Les prix des logements, en revanche, ont continué de grimper, progressant plus rapidement que le niveau général des prix dans plusieurs pays. Ces évolutions ont entraîné un regain d’intérêt pour l’impact du prix des actifs sur la consommation et la demande globale. Ce document analyse l’influence des patrimoines financier et immobilier des ménages sur leur consommation, dans les pays du G7 (à l’exception de l’Allemagne). Il fournit des estimations de la sensibilité de la consommation à diverses formes de richesse et s’interroge, en procédant à des tests, sur les éventuelles variations de ces sensibilités au fil du temps. Il quantifie également l’impact des récentes évolutions des marchés financier et immobilier sur la consommation. Il ressort de ce document, premièrement, que pour tous les pays, les mécanismes de la richesse sont identifiés, deuxièmement, que ces effets varient considérablement d’un pays à l’autre et, troisièmement, que pour certains pays, leur importance a eu tendance à croître très nettement dans un passé récent.
    In: OECD, Revue économique de l'OCDE, Paris : OCDE, 1998, Vol. 2002, no. 2, p. 197-224, 1684-3444
    Additional Edition: Parallelausg. The Stock Market, the Housing Market and Consumer Behaviour
    Language: French
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  • 3
    UID:
    gbv_729986861
    Format: 61 p
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Content: La présente étude commence par une revue du cadre conceptuel des différentes mesures du chômage structurel et des autres méthodes empiriques qui ont été utilisées pour estimer ces mesures. A partir de là, elle expose une méthode pour estimer, au moyen du filtre de Kalman, les NAIRU variables dans le temps dans un ensemble de pays de l’OCDE. Elle analyse ensuite les estimations économétriques qui en résultent et la possibilité de les affiner davantage, compte tenu des nombreuses incertitudes liées à l’estimation. Elle expose les évolutions récentes des estimations du NAIRU : elles ont régressé dans de nombreux pays au cours de la deuxième moitié des années 80, bien que le chômage effectif soit demeuré largement supérieur au NAIRU dans une majorité de pays pendant la plus grande partie de la décennie, particulièrement en Europe. En dernière partie, elle explique l’intérêt des mesures du chômage structurel pour l’analyse des évolutions de l’inflation et de la politique monétaire.
    In: OECD, Revue économique de l'OCDE, Paris : OCDE, 1998, Vol. 2001, no. 2, p. 185-232, 1684-3444
    Additional Edition: Parallelausg. Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries
    Language: French
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  • 4
    UID:
    gbv_729994910
    Format: 38 p
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Content: After the buoyancy of stock markets in the late nineties, share prices have generally trended downwards since 2001. By contrast, house prices have continued to increase, rising more rapidly than the general price level in several countries. These developments have led to renewed interest in the impact of asset prices on consumption and overall demand. This paper analyses the roles of household financial wealth and housing wealth across G7 countries (with the exception of Germany), in determining private consumption. It provides some estimates of the sensitivity of consumption to various forms of wealth and tests whether these sensitivities have changed over time. The impacts of recent financial and housing market developments on consumption are also quantified. The main results are, first, that for all countries, wealth channels are identified, second, that these effects vary significantly across countries, and third that for some countries, their importance has tended to rise markedly over the recent past.
    In: OECD, OECD journal: economic studies, Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008, Vol. 2002, no. 2, p. 175-200, 1995-2856
    Additional Edition: Parallelausg. La bourse, le marché de l'immobilier et le comportement des consommateurs
    Language: English
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  • 5
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047934008
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (27 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: Economists often seek to estimate unobserved variables, representing "equilibrium" or "expected" values of economic variables, as benchmarks against which observed, realised values of these variables may be evaluated. Such comparisons are often used as economic policy indicators, for example the output gap, as measured by the ratio of actual to potential GDP, is commonly used as a measure of excess demand in assessing inflation pressures. To estimate these unobserved variables, a popular approach is the so-called semi-structural approach which includes: the Hodrick Prescott multivariate filter (developed by Laxton and Tetlow, 1992) and the Kalman filter (see, among others Harvey, 1992 and Cuthberson et al., 1992). This paper shows that the two approaches are closely linked, and specifically, it explains how to reproduce theHodrick Prescott multivariate filter using the Kalman filter. Being able to do so has at least two possible advantages. First, while the traditional HPMV filter ...
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    UID:
    gbv_730041395
    Format: 44 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.298
    Content: During the first two years of monetary union, the euro's weakness surprised most market participants. Explanations proliferated ranging from fundamentals such as differences in growth prospects to psychological factors such as herd behaviour, but no single story fully accounts for the observed exchange rate path. Based on an eclectic approach, this paper offers an empirical analysis showing that terms-of-trade and saving/investment behaviour seem to have driven the euro exchange rate over the medium and longer run. While such econometric estimates ought to be interpreted with due care, they do support the view that towards the end of 2000, the euro was significantly undervalued ...
    Language: English
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  • 7
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047936415
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (27 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on major OECD economies, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical framework and available empirical evidence, consumption functions are estimated for the US including the influence of financial wealth. The resulting estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth are extrapolated to other G7 countries, allowing for differences in stock market capitalisation, and compared with ones obtained more directly from consumption functions that include stock market prices as an explanatory variable. Simulations are then carried out to assess the potential world impact of a major fall in stock market prices in the G7 countries using a version of the OECD INTERLINK model which embodies the latter equations. The overall effects are found to be significant, particularly when relevant international linkage mechanisms are taken into account ...
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 8
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047932716
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (75 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: The structural rate of unemployment and associated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU) are of major importance to the analysis of macro and structural economic developments, although in practice these concepts are not well defined and there is considerable uncertainty and controversy concerning their measurement and policy use. The present paper reviews a range of conceptual and analytical issues and related empirical studies to examine the usefulness and limitations of such concepts. A reduced-form Phillips curve approach is found the most suitable conceptual framework for representing the NAIRU as currently used by the OECD in its policy analysis and surveillance work. Three distinct classes of NAIRU concept are identified, distinguished by the time-frame in which they are defined, which map directly into the broad requirements for macro and structural policy analysis. In line with a number of recent empirical studies, this general approach is applied ...
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 9
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047934586
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (19 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: This paper investigates the determinants of money demand (M3) in the euro area. It specifically examines the potential impact of financial and housing wealth on money demand. It tests the hypothesis, whether wealth associated with increases in asset prices is used to finance liquidity holdings in a standard portfolio context. Regressing velocity on interest rates and a wealth variable (a composite of residential property and stocks) within an error-correction framework provides evidence of positive wealth effects from financial and housing assets on money demand in the long run, but no significant impact in the short run. Tests suggests that the long-run and dynamic money demand equations are stable and have not been disrupted by the adoption of the euro on 1 January 1999, while the impact of wealth on money demand may have increased ...
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 10
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047934589
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (29 Seiten) , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers
    Content: The past two decades have seen substantial deregulation in the financial sectors of most OECD countries. The main motivation was to improve efficiency within the financial system, but the macroeconomic implications might go beyond this objective with impacts on the business cycle and the transmission mechanisms of monetary and fiscal policies. More specifically, financial liberalisation and heightened competition in the financial services sector, through a rapid expansion of credit, may have eased the liquidity constraints facing households, thus raising the targeted level of consumption. The objective of this paper is to test whether financial deregulation, through an easing of liquidity constraints, has had an impact on the relationship between consumption and income, and more specifically on the wealth effect. A range of different procedures is used to assess the impact of financial deregulation on global wealth and on its different components (financial, housing and others) ...
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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