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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    What explains private saving in Mexico? / (2006)
    [Washington, D.C.] :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958061621402883
    Format: 1 online resource (30 p.)
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 1-4623-3870-4 , 1-4519-9641-1 , 1-282-47418-9 , 1-4519-9105-3 , 9786613821713
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/06/191
    Content: This paper examines the factors influencing Mexico's private saving rate. Cross-country analysis finds that Mexico's private saving is somewhat higher than could be explained by its fundamentals, but lower than in the average country in the sample. This analysis suggests that Mexico's greater reliance on external saving, its relatively high population dependency ratio, and its less developed financial system have been the main factors holding back private saving. Time-series analysis finds that movements in private saving have not been associated with similar shifts in investment, as changes in public saving and external saving have tended to offset movements in private saving. This is consistent with the direction of causality being from investment to saving and suggests that policy measures should focus on creating conditions favorable to increased investment.
    Note: "August 2006". , ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. GROWTH, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT IN AN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMY""; ""III. THE MEASUREMENT OF PRIVATE SAVING""; ""IV. CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE""; ""V. TIME-SERIES EVIDENCE FOR MEXICO""; ""VI. MEXICO�S SAVING: WHICH WAY DOES THE CAUSALITY GO?""; ""VII. CONCLUSIONS""; ""REFERENCES"" , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6451-5
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Maastricht inflation criterion : how unpleasant is purgatory? (2006)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund, IMF Institute,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958098526802883
    Format: 1 online resource (43 p.)
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 1-4623-6695-3 , 1-4527-0877-0 , 1-283-51669-1 , 9786613829146 , 1-4519-0920-9
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/06/154
    Content: The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively influenced the public stance toward low inflation, it has biased the choice of the disinflation strategy toward short-run, fiat measures-rather than adopting structural reforms with longer-term benefits-with unpleasant consequences for the efficiency of the eurozone transmission mechanism. The criterion is also unnecessarily tight for new member countries as it mainly reflects cyclical developments.
    Note: "June 2006." , ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. INFLATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION""; ""III. HOW COSTLY CAN DISINFLATION BE AND WHY?""; ""IV. POLICY IMPLICATIONS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References"" , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6414-0
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Volatility of development aid : from the frying pan into the fire? (2006)
    [Washington, D.C.] :International Monetary Fund, IMF Institute,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958061619002883
    Format: 1 online resource (32 p.)
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 1-4623-6192-7 , 1-4527-8445-0 , 1-282-54117-X , 1-4519-0861-X , 9786613821959
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/06/65
    Content: The positive impact of foreign aid is limited by the erratic behavior of aid flows. The introduction in 1999 of various initiatives anchored in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) which were aimed at strengthening coordination among donors, improving the design of financial support programs, and improving domestic records of policy implementation should have led to an improvement in the time series properties of aid flows. We find no evidence of any fundamental changes in the way aid has been delivered in the past five years. If anything, aid volatility has worsened somewhat and the information value of long-term lending commitments has declined. We take these results to mean that the main causes of the volatility and unpredictability of aid, and the broader issue of macroeconomic instability in low-income countries, have not been addressed in a systematic manner by the donor community.
    Note: "March 2006." , ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. VOLATILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF AID: WHAT EXACTLY IS THE ISSUE?""; ""III. DATA AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES""; ""IV. MEASURING THE VARIABILITY OF AID: THREE APPROACHES""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS""; ""REFERENCES"" , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6325-X
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sustainable real exchange rates in the new EU member states : what did the Great Recession change? (2010)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958063775602883
    Format: 1 online resource (52 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4623-8903-1 , 1-4552-6066-5 , 1-282-84742-2 , 9786612847424 , 1-4552-0528-1
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/10/198
    Content: The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.
    Note: "August 2010." , At head of title: IMF Institute. , Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Tables and figures; Figure 1. FDI, Real Effective Exchange Rate, External Debt, Net Exports; Figure 2. FDI Inflows Are Paying Off, 1998-2008; Figure 3. "Tradable FDI" as a Share of "Nontradable FDI," 2002-2008; A. The First Step: Trade Equations; Table 1. Variables and Data Sources, 1998-2014; Table 2. Panel Estimates of Trade Equations; Table 3. Country-Specific FDI Elasticities; B. Second Step: Macroeconomic and Debt Scenarios; Table 4. Net External Debt Targets; Figure 4. Net foreign debt: Actual and simulated trajectories, 1998-2039 , Table 5. Summary of 11 Simulation ScenariosMisalignment; Figure 5. Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: 1999-2009; The SRER Projections; Figure 6. Projections of the Sustainable Real Exchange Rates: 1999-2014; Comparisons with Earlier Research; References; V. Conclusions; IV. Simulation results; III. The SRER Modeling Approach; II. Stylized Facts; I. Introduction; Footnote
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries : what have we learned from the forerunners? (2005)
    [Washington, D.C.] :International Monetary Fund, Policy Development and Review,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958078737802883
    Format: 1 online resource (39 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4623-8515-X , 1-4527-5118-8 , 1-282-03200-3 , 9786613796738 , 1-4519-0582-3
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/05/27
    Content: Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. According to the estimates, the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish currencies were overvalued in 2003. Simulations, conditional on large-model macroeconomic projections, suggest that under current policies those currencies would be unlikely to stay within the ERM2 stability corridor during 2004-10. In-sample simulations for Greece, Portugal, and Spain indicate both a much smaller misalignment of national currencies prior to ERM2, and a more stable path of real exchange rates over the medium term than can be expected for the new accession countries.
    Note: "February 2005." , ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FORERUNNERS AND LATECOMERS: ARE THERE LESSONS TO BE LEARNED?""; ""III. A MODEL OF FDI-DRIVEN REAL EXCHANGE RATES""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE""; ""V. POLICY IMPLICATIONS""; ""VI. CONCLUSIONS""; ""REFERENCES"" , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6046-3
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation targeting and communication : it pays off to read inflation reports (2008)
    [Washington, District of Columbia] :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958066542102883
    Format: 1 online resource (44 p.)
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 1-4623-1744-8 , 1-4527-3696-0 , 1-282-84185-8 , 9786612841859 , 1-4518-7092-2
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ;
    Content: Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports-provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000-05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Contents; I. Why Inflation Targeting?; Figures; 1. Inflation and Its Determinants, 2000-05; II. Inflation Targeting and Communication; A. Central Bank Communication and Inflation Forecasts; B. The Public; 2. Inflation Forecasts, Policymaking, and Communication Under Conditional; III. Methodology and Sample Selection; 3. The Public's Scrutiny of Central Bank Communication; A. Methodology; B. Sample Selection and Data; IV. Empirical Findings; Tables; 1. Inflation Targeters: Sample Characteristics; A. Summary of Results; 2. Breakdown of Communication Results, Sample Average, 2000-05 , 3. Clarity of Communication, Sample Averages, 2000-05B. "The Central Bank that Cried Wolf"; 4. Clarity of Communication, Individual Countries, 2000-05; 4. Monetary Policy Communication: 2000-05; C. Robustness Checks; 5. Clarity of Communication: Robustness Checks; V. Conclusions: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?; 5. Clarity of Communication, the 2-Year Forecast Horizon, 2000-05; References; Annex
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Writing clearly : ECB's monetary policy communication (2008)
    [Washington, District of Columbia] :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958098552602883
    Format: 1 online resource (36 p.)
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 1-4623-9110-9 , 1-4527-1476-2 , 1-4518-7110-4 , 1-282-84203-X , 9786612842030
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ;
    Content: The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Contents; I. Introduction; II. Motivation and Literature Overview; A. Communicating Clearly; B. Literature on Monetary Policy Communication; III. Methodology and Data; A. Methodology ("Central Bank Watching for Dummies"); Tables; 1. Slope Coefficient in a Regression of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; Figures; 1. Correlation of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; 2. GARCH Estimate of the Policy Rule for the ECB; 3. Parameterization Overview; B. Data; 2. Euro Area: Actual Inflation, Inflation Targets, and Inflation Expectations , 4. Inflation Factors and Their Serial Correlation5. Comparison with the KOF MPC Index; C. ECB Watching; 3. ECB Bulletins: Inflation Factors; 4. ECB: Central Bank Watching; IV. Results; A. Press Statements Only; B. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions; 5. Press Statements Only; C. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions and Forecast Risk Assessment; 6. ECB Bulletin, Shock Description, but No Forecast Risk Assessment; D. Monthly Bulletins: Adding Monetary Pillar Information; 7. ECB Bulletin, All Shocks; E. Summary Discussion: When Could the Public Get Confused?; 8. Monetary Pillar , 9. Confusing Communication: Robustness ChecksF. Comparison with Other Studies; V. Conclusions; References , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4519-1563-2
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845953761
    Format: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1498392911 , 9781498392914
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/175
    Content: We study whether clarity of central bank inflation reports affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure clarity of reports by the Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and Sveriges Riksbank using the Flesch-Kincaid grade level, a standard readability measure. We find some evidence, mainly for the euro area, of a negative relationship between clarity and market volatility prior to and during the early stage of the global financial crisis. As the crisis unfolded, there is no longer robust evidence of a negative connection. We conclude that reducing noise using clear reports is possible but not without challenges, especially in times of crisis
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Bulir, Ales Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets? Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014 ISBN 9781498392914
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781498392914.001
    URL: kostenfrei
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845950282
    Format: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1498387616 , 9781498387613
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/91
    Content: We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced-form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across factors, time, and countries
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Bulir, Ales Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014 ISBN 9781498387613
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781498387613.001
    URL: kostenfrei
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation (2012)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845836021
    Format: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 146393114X , 9781463931148
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/9
    Content: This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation has changed with the economic environment. We use readability statistics and content analysis to study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks between 1997 and 2010. Overall, we find no strong indications that central banks were less clear in explaining their policies when faced with higher uncertainty or a less favorable inflation outlook. The global financial crisis, however, did have a negative impact on clarity of central bank communication
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Bulir, Ales Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012 ISBN 9781463931148
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781463931148.001
    URL: kostenfrei
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