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  • 1
    UID:
    almafu_BV026952273
    Format: 27 S. : , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Kiel working paper 1180
    Note: Literaturverz. S. 16 - 19
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics
    RVK:
    Keywords: Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, District of Columbia] :International Monetary Fund,
    UID:
    edoccha_9958124746602883
    Format: 1 online resource (17 p.)
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 1-4623-7598-7 , 1-4527-1780-X , 1-4518-6977-0 , 9786612840715 , 1-282-84071-1
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ;
    Content: Assuming a social welfare function that smoothes expenditure, this paper calculates a sustainability benchmark for the non-mineral balance in Botswana that is based on a notion of a "permanent income" from non-renewable resources. It is derived by constructing a hypothetical annuity from revenues from these resources, which is held constant in terms of GDP. Botswana is an interesting case because current projections suggest that diamond resources could be largely exhausted within a generation.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Contents; I. Introduction; II. Fiscal Policy in Resource-Rich Countries:; A. International Experience; B. The Permanent Income Hypothesis; C. Mathematical Representation of How to Calculate Benchmarks; III. The Case of Botswana; A. Background; B. Calculating Sustainable Non-mineral Balances for Botswana; Figures; 1 Botswana: Mineral Revenues, Annuity, and Asset Accumulation; Table; 1. Botswana: Fiscal Sustainability Benchmarks; C. Sensitivity Analysis; 2. Botswana: Sensitivity Analysis for Benchmarked Balances; 3. Botswana: Mineral Revenues, Annuity, and Asset Accumulation; IV. Conclusions , References , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4519-1431-8
    Language: English
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  • 3
    UID:
    edoccha_9958124939002883
    Format: 1 online resource (38 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4623-9510-4 , 1-4527-1574-2 , 1-283-55978-1 , 1-4519-9013-8 , 9786613872234
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/10/52
    Content: This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.
    Note: "February 2010." , Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Real-Time GDP Datasets; 1. Real GDP Vintages and Output Gap Series; III. Estimating Output Gaps; 1. Real GDP Growth Ex Post and Real-Time; IV. Simulating Inflation Forecasting; V. Results; 2. Inflation Forecast Errors; VI. Conclusion; 1. United Kingdom: Real-Time GDP Dataset; 1. United Kingdom: Real-Time GDP and Output Gap Dataset; 2. United States: Real-Time GDP Dataset; 2. United States: Real-Time GDP and Output Gap Dataset; 3. Germany: Real-Time GDP Dataset; 3. Germany: Real-Time GDP and Output Gap Dataset , 4. Germany: Output Gap Estimates1. Germany: Real-Time vs. Ex Post Output Gaps; 5. United Kingdom: Output Gap Estimates; 2. United Kingdom: Real-Time vs. Ex Post Output Gaps; 6. United States: Output Gap Estimates; 3. United States: Real-Time vs. Ex Post Output Gaps; 7. Inflation in Germany, the UK, and the US; 4. Inflation in Germany, the UK, and the US; References; Footnotes , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4519-6338-6
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, D.C.] :International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Financial Systems Dept and IMF Institute,
    UID:
    edocfu_9958084339802883
    Format: 1 online resource (40 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4623-2259-X , 1-4519-9644-6 , 1-282-00341-0 , 9786613795632 , 1-4519-0611-0
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/05/56
    Content: The paper investigates cyclical fluctuations in the current and financial (formerly capital) accounts of the balance of payments and major underlying components for nine industrial countries. The empirical model uses as explanatory variables domestic output growth, price inflation, real exchange rate fluctuations, energy price inflation, global growth, and regional growth. The evidence from the estimation of the model indicates the importance of fluctuations in output growth to the cyclicality of the current and financial account balances. The necessary and sufficient condition to sustain a large current account deficit is high domestic growth, which tends to stimulate financial inflows and provides adequate resources for financing. Other factors appear to be less important to the cyclicality of the current and financial account balances and their negative correlations.
    Note: "March 2005." , ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA BY COUNTRY""; ""III. MODELING CYCLICAL EFFECTS ON THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS""; ""A. The Current Account""; ""B. The Financial Account""; ""C. The Relation between the Current and Financial Accounts""; ""D. Empirical Investigation""; ""E. Non-Stationarity and Cointegration Analysis""; ""F. Analysis of Cyclical Fluctuations""; ""IV. RESULTS FROM REDUCED FORM EQUATIONS""; ""A. Determinants of Fluctuations in the Current Account Balance""; ""B. Determinants of Fluctuations in the Financial Balance"" , ""V. ON CORRELATION BETWEEN FINANCIAL AND CURRENT ACCOUNTS""""A. Cyclical Correlations Between Current and Financial Accounts""; ""B. Correlations between Estimated Parameters for the Current and Financial Balances""; ""VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY""; ""DATA DESCRIPTION AND SOURCES""; ""REFERENCES"" , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6075-7
    Language: English
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  • 5
    UID:
    gbv_845898353
    Format: Online-Ressource (16 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451866631 , 9781451866636
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 07/99
    Content: Zimbabwe has currently the highest rate of inflation in the world (an annual rate of 1,730 percent in February, 2007). The high rates of inflation have contributed to the contraction of the economy, which has declined by about 30 percent since 1999. This paper examines the stabilization experience of countries that experienced similar rates of inflation (above 1,000 percent) during 1980-2005 and draws lessons for Zimbabwe. First, with appropriate stabilization policies, the fall in inflation can be very rapid and output normally recovers within the first year or two of stabilization. Second, while reforms need to be comprehensive, a strong upfront fiscal consolidation, including elimination of quasi-fiscal activities, is a critical element of a successful stabilization program. Third, although stabilization itself can be done without significant external financing in the first year, most countries benefited from external policy advice and technical support, including from the IMF, during stabilization and from an increase in financial assistance in subsequent years
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Clausen, Jens Lessons From High Inflation Epidsodes for Stabilizing the Economy in Zimbabwe Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007 ISBN 9781451866636
    Language: English
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  • 6
    UID:
    gbv_845896806
    Format: Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451963386 , 9781451963380
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 10/52
    Content: This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Clausen, Jens Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time: How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US? Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010 ISBN 9781451963380
    Language: English
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  • 7
    UID:
    gbv_845873628
    Format: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451860757 , 9781451860757
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 05/56
    Content: The paper investigates cyclical fluctuations in the current and financial (formerly capital) accounts of the balance of payments and major underlying components for nine industrial countries. The empirical model uses as explanatory variables domestic output growth, price inflation, real exchange rate fluctuations, energy price inflation, global growth, and regional growth. The evidence from the estimation of the model indicates the importance of fluctuations in output growth to the cyclicality of the current and financial account balances. The necessary and sufficient condition to sustain a large current account deficit is high domestic growth, which tends to stimulate financial inflows and provides adequate resources for financing. Other factors appear to be less important to the cyclicality of the current and financial account balances and their negative correlations
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Clausen, Jens On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005 ISBN 9781451860757
    Language: English
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  • 8
    UID:
    kobvindex_DGP1643146572
    Format: graph. Darst., Tab., Lit.Hinw.
    ISSN: 0721-3808
    In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, Berlin : De Gruyter Oldenbourg, 1981, 50(2001), 3, Seite 289-308, 0721-3808
    Language: English
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  • 9
    UID:
    gbv_1643146572
    Format: graph. Darst., Tab., Lit.Hinw.
    ISSN: 0721-3808
    In: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, Berlin : De Gruyter Oldenbourg, 1981, 50(2001), 3, Seite 289-308, 0721-3808
    In: volume:50
    In: year:2001
    In: number:3
    In: pages:289-308
    Language: English
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  • 10
    UID:
    almafu_BV026497390
    Format: X, 231 S. : , graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 3-8322-2799-7
    Series Statement: Berichte aus der Volkswirtschaft
    Note: Zugl.: Köln, Univ., Diss., 2004
    Language: English
    Keywords: Währungsunion ; Geldnachfrage ; Geldmengensteuerung ; Taylor-Regel ; Hochschulschrift
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