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  • 1
    UID:
    almafu_9958246396702883
    Format: 1 online resource (42 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Existing evidence forms a body of "conventional wisdom" on the redistributive impact of fiscal policies that has been recently questioned by more disaggregated analyses. This paper proposes an additional extension to the traditional benefit incidence analysis to explore further the extent to which the conventional wisdom holds, as well as to provide effective guidance in fiscal decision making. The benefit incidence analysis extension includes linking fiscal policies with the concept of equality of opportunities. The paper describes this approach and showcases the application of the proposed "opportunity incidence analysis" to six pilot countries: Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, Zambia, Tajikistan, Thailand, and Paraguay. Three main contributions stand out: first, opportunity incidence analysis complements traditional benefit incidence analysis by applying its mechanics to a more forward looking concept of equal opportunity. Second, opportunities can be used to target public spending with higher precision. Third, micro-simulations can be used to understand the cost-effectiveness of alternative spending interventions that seek to improve equality of opportunities. All of these results complement the diagnosis produced by traditional incidence analysis and provide useful information to guide specific policy decisions.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    UID:
    almafu_9958246482802883
    Format: 1 online resource (36 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper explores the reduction of food insecurity in Bolivia, adopting a supply side approach that analyzes the role of agricultural spending on vulnerability. Vulnerability to food insecurity is captured by a municipal level composite-developed locally within the framework of World Food Program food security analysis-that combines welfare outcomes, weather conditions and agricultural potential for all 327 municipalities in 2003, 2006 and 2007. Our econometric results indicate that levels of public agricultural spending are positively associated with high or very high vulnerability. The authors interpret this to indicate that agricultural spending allocation decisions are driven by high or very high vulnerability levels. In other words, more agricultural spending appears to be destined to where it is more needed in line with previous findings in other sectors in Bolivia. This is confirmed through a number of specifications, including contemporaneous and lagged relationships between spending and vulnerability. They also find evidence of public spending on infrastructure and research and extension services having a significant (but very small) effect towards reducing high vulnerability. This indicates the importance of the composition of public agricultural spending in shaping its relationship with vulnerability to food insecurity.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    UID:
    almafu_9958246440002883
    Format: 1 online resource (45 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper analyzes the distributional effect of public spending in Zambia using the most recent data from the 2010 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey. The analysis focuses on both the "traditional" social sectors, such as education and public healthcare, as well as other spending areas less thoroughly studied, such as agricultural support programs. Ultimately, this benefit incidence analysis addresses the extent to which spending is pro-poor and progressive; that is, it primarily benefits the poor and does so at an increasing rate as welfare levels decrease. The results indicate that overall public education spending in Zambia is neither pro-poor nor progressive, but while this is true for the system as a whole it is not true for all of its parts. The net unitary benefits of primary and secondary education are clearly both pro-poor and progressive. However, their progressivity is ultimately outweighed by the extreme concentration of tertiary education benefits among the wealthiest members of Zambian society. Health spending is also regressive and not pro-poor. Although unitary net benefits are slightly progressive, unequal access remains the key constraint. In contrast, the benefits of agricultural-input subsidy programs follow a somewhat progressive pattern (for each beneficiary in the top quintile there are almost two beneficiaries in the poorest quintile) but clearly suffer from targeting problems. Consequently, without better-designed and more conscientiously implemented targeting mechanisms, public spending on health, education, and fertilizers will not be able to further the government's larger objectives for pro-poor and progressive development policy.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    UID:
    almafu_9958246412902883
    Format: 1 online resource (22 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper reviews the prospects for long-term food security in Asia, where a significant number of malnourished individuals still live after decades of mixed progress. Evidence shows that poverty reduction on its own will not do the job of eradicating hunger, nor will only increased food production. The region's contribution to high and volatile international food prices is well known, but Asia's potential contributions toward future decreased price uncertainty are much less cited. The changing composition of future food demand in the region will depend on the extent to which poverty reduction effectively leads to middle class expansion, which remains unclear.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    UID:
    almafu_9958246464202883
    Format: 1 online resource (43 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper brings back the fiscal angle to the analysis of equal opportunities both by connecting traditional benefit-incidence analysis of public spending with equal opportunities and by conducting ex-ante micro-simulations on the fiscal cost of equal opportunity policies in education. Four simulations are conducted in Liberia, a country devastated by a civil war, with serious educational enrollment gaps and fiscal policies highly dependent on international aid. Results for the simulated policy scenarios (increases in teachers' salaries, elimination of both fee and non-fee costs borne by households, and targeting public spending on education to rural schools) point to very modest redistributive effects but very different patterns of winners and losers among groups of children in Liberia.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 6
    UID:
    almafu_9958246202502883
    Format: 1 online resource (28 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper identifies and quantifies three distortions caused by the existing social security and social assistance systems in Colombia. These distortions refer to the discrepancy between the cost of formal social security for the employer and the worker's valuation of the received service (social distortion): the differences in social security benefits received by salaried and self-employed formal workers (occupational distortion); and the discrepancy caused by the cost in employing a formal instead of an informal worker (informal distortion). Based on recently collected information concerning Colombian workers' willingness to pay for several packages of social security benefits, the study calculates that social distortions range from 2 to 27 percent of the workers' labor earnings; the occupational distortion amounts to 50 percent of formal salaried workers' earnings; and the informal distortions represent between 45 and 56 percent of formal workers' labor income. Results indicate that valuations of the contributive and noncontributive protection systems play a key role in explaining these distortions. In addition, the Colombian social protection system thereby places a hefty tax on the formal worker (and employer) while transferring resources to the informal worker, but these distortions are not sufficient to revert differentials in earnings among formal and informal workers.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    UID:
    almafu_9961102900602883
    Format: 1 online resource (43 pages)
    Content: This paper advances the understanding of the linkages between trust in government and citizen participation in Latin America and the Caribbean, using machine learning techniques and Latinobarometro 2020 data. Proponents of the concept of stealth democracy argue that an inverse relationship exists between political trust and citizen participation, while deliberative democracy theorists claim the opposite. The paper estimates that trust in national governments or other governmental institutions plays neither a dominant nor consistent role in driving political participation. Instead, interest in politics, personal circumstances such as experience of crime and discrimination, and socioeconomic aspects appear to drive citizen participation much more strongly in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. This is true across models imposing simple linear trends (logit and lasso) and others allowing for nonlinear and complex relations (decision trees). The results vary across the type of participation-signing a petition, participation in demonstrations, or involvement in a community issue-which the paper attributes to increasing net costs associated with participation.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 8
    UID:
    almafu_9961265123502883
    Format: 1 online resource (30 pages).
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers
    Content: Social sustainability is often poorly understood and vaguely defined, despite growing appreciation of its relevance as a concept. This paper advances the empirical understanding of social sustainability by constructing a global database of 71 indicators across 193 countries and 37 territories between 2016 and 2020. The indicators are flexibly clustered around four dimensions-social inclusion, resilience, social cohesion, and process legitimacy-for which measurement indices are constructed. A simple empirical analysis using the database confirms that social sustainability is positively and strongly associated with per capita income, negatively and strongly associated with poverty, and negatively but weakly associated with income inequality. Much remains to be analyzed to understand the interactions between dimensions, but the results underscore that social sustainability matters not only in itself, but also to reduce poverty. Furthermore, extending access to markets, basic public services, and social assistance needs to be complemented with strengthening process legitimacy and social cohesion if inequality is to be reduced.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 9
    UID:
    almafu_9960819724902883
    Format: 1 online resource (44 pages)
    Content: There are multiple estimates of global monetary and multidimensional poverty, but there are still no estimates of populations at risk of social exclusion worldwide. This paper fills this gap by estimating the share and number of populations at risk of exclusion globally and regionally. It develops a conceptual framework of social exclusion that builds on Sen's capability approach and emphasizes the relative, multidimensional, and dynamic features of exclusion. The paper also develops a macro counting measure of population groups that are particularly vulnerable to exclusion based on identity, circumstances, and socioeconomic conditions. The empirical strategy surveys the most reliable sources of vulnerable populations across countries and develops a protocol to avoid double-counting of individuals at risk of social exclusion. Overall, between 2.33 billion and 2.43 billion people-roughly 32 percent of the global population-are estimated to be at risk of being socially excluded. The South Asia and East Asia and Pacific regions contain 1.3 billion such people, with India and China alone home to 840 million of them. Meanwhile, 52 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's population is vulnerable to exclusion, the greatest share of any region. The paper also discusses several implications of these estimates, emphasizing that policies targeting the poor might not be sufficient to tackle social exclusion.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048265088
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Content: This paper quantifies the magnitude of transitions across occupational categories in Colombia, a country with high unemployment and informality but quickly increasing its social security coverage for health. The analysis makes use of a panel of households between 2008 and 2009, representative of the main metropolitan areas in the country. Results confirm previous evidence found in Colombia and elsewhere in the region that transitions between occupations are large and asymmetric: they are disproportionally more likely to happen from formal to informal occupations than vice versa. The paper finds for the first time that such transitions are also different for salaried workers compared with the self-employed, as well as by poverty status of the worker. Salaried workers are more likely to transition first into other salaried jobs, while self-employed are more likely to transition into unemployment or out of the labor force. There are marked differences in the profiles of transitioning and non-transitioning workers, both in terms of socioeconomic characteristics and social security coverage. Causal analysis shows that affiliation to social security on health deters occupational transitions, while pension insurance does not. Hence, high-volume transitions may not be crisis-specific phenomena, but rather associated with contributive and non-contributive social security mechanisms that incentivize informality, and workers' preferences for informal jobs. The debate on labor market and social security reforms needs to take these features of transitions into account
    Additional Edition: Cuesta, Jose Labor Market Transitions and Social Security in Colombia
    Language: English
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