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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe (2016)
    Washington D.C. : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9959301381502883
    Format: 1 online resource (48 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4983-6745-3 , 1-4983-6770-4
    Content: This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries' growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries' economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4755-7636-6
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Charité
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe (2016)
    Washington D.C. : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9959301381502883
    Format: 1 online resource (48 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4983-6745-3 , 1-4983-6770-4
    Content: This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries' growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries' economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4755-7636-6
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil? / (2023)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9961030633302883
    Format: 1 online resource (30 pages)
    ISBN: 979-84-00-23200-8
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality process, the adaptive learning model. In this context, we show that the separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job in fitting the data in both Brazil and the USA. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 979-84-00-22995-4
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Costly Will Reining in Inflation Be? It Depends on How Rational We Are / (2023)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9961030629102883
    Format: 1 online resource (37 pages)
    ISBN: 979-84-00-23381-4
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: We document that past highly inflationary episodes are often characterized by a steeper inflationslack relationship. We show that model-generated data from a standard small Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model can replicate this empirical finding when estimated with different expectation formation processes. When inflation becomes de-anchored and expectations drift, we can observe high inflation even with a mildly positive output gap in response to cost-push shocks. The results imply that we should not use an unconditioned (not controlling for expectations change) Phillips curve estimated in normal times to predict the cost of reining in inflation. Our optimal policy exercises prescribe early monetary policy tightening and then easing in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 979-84-00-23227-5
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Charité
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Costly Will Reining in Inflation Be? It Depends on How Rational We Are / (2023)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9961030629102883
    Format: 1 online resource (37 pages)
    ISBN: 979-84-00-23381-4
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: We document that past highly inflationary episodes are often characterized by a steeper inflationslack relationship. We show that model-generated data from a standard small Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model can replicate this empirical finding when estimated with different expectation formation processes. When inflation becomes de-anchored and expectations drift, we can observe high inflation even with a mildly positive output gap in response to cost-push shocks. The results imply that we should not use an unconditioned (not controlling for expectations change) Phillips curve estimated in normal times to predict the cost of reining in inflation. Our optimal policy exercises prescribe early monetary policy tightening and then easing in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 979-84-00-23227-5
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil? / (2023)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9961030633302883
    Format: 1 online resource (30 pages)
    ISBN: 979-84-00-23200-8
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality process, the adaptive learning model. In this context, we show that the separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job in fitting the data in both Brazil and the USA. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 979-84-00-22995-4
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Charité
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy / (2016)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9960178340602883
    Format: 1 online resource (32 pages) : , illustrations.
    ISBN: 1-4755-5443-5 , 1-4755-5447-8
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4755-5222-X
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Charité
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy / (2016)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9960178340602883
    Format: 1 online resource (32 pages) : , illustrations.
    ISBN: 1-4755-5443-5 , 1-4755-5447-8
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4755-5222-X
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis / (2021)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9960178572702883
    Format: 1 online resource (35 pages)
    ISBN: 1-5135-9350-1
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-5135-9484-2
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Charité
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis / (2021)
    Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9960178572702883
    Format: 1 online resource (35 pages)
    ISBN: 1-5135-9350-1
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers
    Content: This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-5135-9484-2
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    FU Berlin
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