Format:
1 Online-Ressource (xv, 623 Seiten)
ISBN:
9780511611308
Content:
Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications
Content:
The emergence of decision analysis / Ralph F. Miles, Jr. -- The foundations of decision analysis revisited / Ronald A. Howard -- Decision analysis : a personal account of how it got started and evolved / Howard Raiffa -- Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards to decision analysis and behavioral research / Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlof von Winterfeldt -- Defining a decision analytic structure / Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards -- Developing objectives and attributes / Ralph L. Keeney -- Eliciting probabilities from experts / Stephen C. Hora -- Aggregating probability distributions / Robert T. Clemen and Robert L. Winkler -- Model building with belief networks and influence diagrams / Ross D. Shachter -- A Bayesian approach to learning causal networks / David Heckerman -- Utility and risk preferences / David E. Bell -- Practical value models -- Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof von Winterfeldt -- Extensions of the subjective expected utility model / Robert F. Nau -- Probabilistic risk analysis for engineered systems / Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. -- The engineering risk-analysis method and some applications / M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell -- Health risk analysis for risk-management decision-making / Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. -- What have we learned from our mistakes? / Barbara Mellers and Connson Locke -- Decision conferencing / Lawrence D. Phillips -- Resource allocation decisions / Don N. Kleinmuntz -- From decision analysis to the decision organization / David Matheson and James E. Matheson -- Building decision competency in organizations / Carl S. Spetzler -- Negotiation analysis : between decisions and games / James K. Sebenius -- The adoption of multiattribute utility theory for the evaluation of plutonium disposition options in the United States and Russia / John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia, and Vladimir I. Oussanov -- Choosing a tritium supply technology for nuclear weapons : reflections on a controversial decision analysis / Detlof von Winterfeldt -- Applications of decision analysis to the military systems acquisition process / Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick -- Balancing environmental and operational objectives in nuclear refueling strategies / Phillip C. Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker -- Perspective on decision analysis applications / Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, and James L. Corner
Note:
Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015)
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780521863681
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780521863686
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780521682305
Additional Edition:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Advances in decision analysis Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007 ISBN 0521682304
Additional Edition:
ISBN 0521863686
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780521682305
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780521863681
Language:
English
Subjects:
Economics
,
Psychology
Keywords:
Entscheidungstheorie
;
Aufsatzsammlung
DOI:
10.1017/CBO9780511611308
URL:
Volltext
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