UID:
almafu_9958132096102883
Format:
1 online resource (267 p.)
ISBN:
1-4832-9422-6
Series Statement:
Contributions to Economic Analysis
Content:
This comparative historical study of econometrics focuses on the development of econometric methods and their application to macroeconomics.The analysis covers the origins of modern econometrics in the USA and Europe during the 1920's and 30's, the rise of `structural estimation' in the 1940's and 50's as the dominant research paradigm, and the crisis of the large macroeconomic models in the 1970's and 80's.The completely original feature of this work is the use of previously unknown manuscript material from the archives of the Cowles Commission and other collections. The history so constructe
Note:
Description based upon print version of record.
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Front Cover; A History of Econometrics; Copyright Page; Introduction to the Series; PREFACE; Table of Contents; INTRODUCTION; Purpose of the Study; The Setting of the Problem; Use of Original Source Material; Summary of Principal Recent Critiques; Outline of Following Chapters; NOTES TO INTRODUCTION; CHAPTER 1. THE DISCOVERY OF HIGHER STATISTICS"" IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH; 1.1 Background; 1.2 American Developments 1911-1930; 1.3 Stirrings in Europe; NOTES TO CHAPTER 1; CHAPTER 2.THE EMERGENCE OF STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION; 2.1 Background: Macrodynamics and Complete Systems
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2.2 The ""Cowles Commission Method""2.3 Beginning Debate over Methodology of Structural Estimation; NOTES TO CHAPTER 2; CHAPTER 3. THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION; 3.1 The Full Employment Act and Post-War Policies; 3.2 Wartime Price Controls and the Cowles Commission; 3.3 Fiscal Policy and Debates over Taxation; 3.4 Structural Estimation and American Institutionalism; NOTES TO CHAPTER 3; CHAPTER 4. PROMISES AND PROBLEMS OF STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION; 4.1 Attempts to Recruit Mathematical Statisticians; 4.2 Empirical Work at Cowles; 4.3 Retreat from Structure
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4.4 Structural Estimation after CowlesNOTES TO CHAPTER 4; CHAPTER 5. CONTEMPORARY ALTERNATIVES TO SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS ESTIMATION; 5.1 Comparative Developments in England 1939-54; 5.2 Tinbergen and the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau; 5.3 The Swedish School: Recursive Models and OLS; NOTES TO CHAPTER 5; CHAPTER 6. EXOGENEITY; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 A Priori Exogeneity; 6.3 Testing Exogeneity; 6.4 Rational Expectations; NOTES TO CHAPTER 6; CHAPTER 7.VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS; 7.1 Background; 7.2 Critique of Identification; 7.3 An Alternative Time-Series Methodology
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7.4 Contrast to Structural Methods7.5 Estimation and Inference with a VAR; 7.6 Hypothesis Testing; 7.7 Policy Analysis; 7.8 Conclusions about VAR Methodology; NOTES TO CHAPTER 7; CHAPTER 8.CONCLUSION; 8.1 Review of the Argument; 8.2 Divergent Trends in Modern Econometrics; 8.3 A Role for Methodological Studies; BIBLIOGRAPHY; INDEX OF NAMES; INDEX OF SUBJECTS
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English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-322-47254-8
Additional Edition:
ISBN 0-444-70267-9
Language:
English
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