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UID:

Format: 1 Online-Ressource (XIV, 291 p. 37 illus., 11 illus. in color)

Edition: 1st ed. 2024

ISBN: 9783031444241

Series Statement: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 350

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-031-44423-4

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-031-44425-8

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-031-44426-5

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-44424-1

URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (297 pages)

Edition: 1st ed.

ISBN: 3-031-44424-8

Series Statement: International Series in Operations Research and Management Science Series ; v.350

Note: Intro -- Foreword -- References -- Contents -- Contributors -- Behavioral Decision Analysis: Past, Present and Future -- References -- Behavioral Decision Research: Descriptive and Prescriptive Perspectives -- Introduction -- Historical Development of Behavioral Decision Research -- Two Perspectives of Behavioral Decision Research -- Descriptive Behavioral Decision Research -- Identifying Cognitive Biases in Unsupported Decision Making -- Identifying Motivational Biases in Unsupported Decision Making -- Detecting Cognitive Limitations in Unsupported Decision Making -- Investigating Adaptive Behavior in Unsupported Decision Making -- Investigating Group Decision Making Behavior -- Prescriptive Behavioral Decision Research -- Identifying Relevant Biases for Prescriptive Decision Models -- Debiasing Judgments Required by Prescriptive Decision Models -- Eliciting Judgments Required by Prescriptive Decision Models -- Facilitating Decision Making Groups with Decision Analysis -- Conclusions and Directions for Further Research -- References -- Behavioral Biases in the Uncertainty Quantification Process -- Introduction -- The Elicitation Process -- Behavioral Biases in the Pre-Elicitation Phase -- Background and Framing -- Initial Design -- Recruitment -- Behavioral Biases in the Elicitation Phase -- Motivating and Exploring -- Assessment: Training and Implementation -- Behavioral Biases in the Post-Elicitation Phase -- Ending Remarks -- References -- Analyzing Decisions Under Uncertainty: Simple Tools of the Heathens -- The Distinction Between Risk and Uncertainty -- First Tool: Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics -- Application: Friend or Foe? -- Application: Knowledge and Thinking -- Theory: The Role of Sparsity -- Second Tool: Rich and Coherent Narratives -- Ways Forward -- References -- Should an Analyst Share Calibration Information with Experts?. , Introduction -- Literature Review -- Experiment -- Experiment Design -- Experiment Details and Protocol -- Metrics -- Summary Statistics and Preliminary Analysis -- Detailed Analysis and Results -- Does Task Complexity Matter? -- Does Feedback Improve Performance? -- Does Numeracy Matter? -- Are Individuals Self-Aware? -- Discussion -- References -- The Role of Environmental Instability in Detecting and Responding to Signals of Impending Regime Shifts -- Introduction -- Method -- Experiment -- Results -- Discussion and Conclusion -- References -- The Social Psychology of the Wisdom of Crowds (with a New Section on Recent Advances) -- The Wisdom of Crowds -- Conditions for Crowds to be Wise -- Composition -- Process -- Crowds Versus Individual Experts -- Types of Crowd Judgments -- The Individual as a Crowd -- How Well Do People Use Crowds? -- Strategies for Combining Judgments -- Using Advice from Another Person -- Combining Judgments from a Collective -- Future Directions for the Psychology of the Wisdom of the Crowds -- Update 2024: A Decade of Discovery -- The Benefits and Costs of Discussion -- The Identification and Use of Experts in Crowds -- Conclusion -- References -- Predicting Behavior in Games: Loss Aversion vs. Rank Dependent Utility vs. Range Utility Theory -- Introduction -- Expected Utility -- Loss Aversion -- Rank-Dependent Utility -- Range Utility Theory -- A Simultaneous 2 × 2 Inspection Game -- Equilibrium Under Expected Utility -- Equilibrium Under Loss Aversion -- Equilibrium Under Rank-Dependent Utility -- Equilibrium Under Range Utility Theory -- Summary of Each Equilibrium -- A Simultaneous 6 × 6 Investment Game -- Conclusions -- References -- Consequences of Missing Objectives in Applications of Multiattribute Utility Analysis -- Introduction -- Objectives in Multiattribute Decision Modeling. , Current Literature on Missing Objectives/Attributes -- Brief Overview of Multiattribute Modeling -- Methods -- Selection of Cases -- Properties of Decision Problems -- Analysis Procedures -- Results -- Selected Application Analysis: Container Ports (De Icaza et al., 2019) -- Aggregated Results -- Hit Rate -- Value Loss -- Translating Value Loss into a Real Unit Equivalent to Cost -- Mean Convergence for Ordering Alternatives -- Discussion -- Limitations and Future Research -- Appendices -- Decision Problem Description -- Airline Competitiveness Chang and Yeh (2001) -- Cargo Delivery (Cavalcanti et al., 2017) -- Climate Change Policy (Konidari & -- Mavrakis, 2007) -- Container Ports (De Icaza et al., 2019) -- Historical Buildings (Ferretti et al., 2014) -- Power Plant (Jacobi & -- Hobbs, 2007) -- Radioactive Waste (Brothers et al., 2009) -- References -- When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes -- Introduction -- How Should We Evaluate Intertemporal Outcomes? -- Descriptive Results of Time Preference Experiments -- Impatience: Preferring a Smaller Positive Outcome Sooner -- Patience: Preferring a Constant or Increasing Sequence of Outcomes -- Prescriptive Guidance for Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes -- Nudges -- Self-Nudges -- Interventional Nudges by Institutions -- CARD Act -- Save More Tomorrow™ -- Crop Insurance -- EPA Guidance: Display Graphs with Outcomes over Time -- Using a Discount Rate or Other Model to Compute a Single Number Representing How Good an Option Is -- Future Research -- Conclusion -- References -- The Near-Miss Bias -- Introduction -- Near-Miss Events: A Definition -- Operationalizing Near-Miss Events -- The Normative Perspective on Near Misses -- The Near-Miss Bias: Behavioral Insights -- Individual Level -- Individual Differences -- Organizational Characteristics. , Counteracting the Near-Miss Bias: Prescriptive Solutions -- Individual-Level Interventions -- Organizational-Level Interventions -- Conclusion -- References -- Behavioral Challenges in Practice When Dealing with Public Environmental Decision Problems -- Introducing Environmental and Public Policy Decisions -- Problem Structuring for Use in MCDA -- Identifying Stakeholders -- Generating Decision Objectives -- Diverging Phase: Capturing All Important Interests -- Converging Phase: Generating a Concise, Well-Structured Hierarchy -- Generating Decision Alternatives -- Conclusion: Problem Structuring -- Predicting the Outcome of Decision Alternatives -- Preference Elicitation -- Preference Construction -- Marginal Value Functions -- Risk, Uncertainty, and Marginal Utility Functions -- Weights -- Online Preference Elicitation and Gamification -- Conclusion: Preference Elicitation -- MCDA Model, Uncertainty, and Sensitivity Analyses -- Does the MCDA Model Match Stakeholder Preferences? -- Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses -- Conclusion: MCDA Model and Uncertainties -- Conclusions -- References -- Team Decision Making -- Introduction -- Team vs. Individual Decision-Making -- Uncertainty and Time Preferences -- Uncertainty Preferences -- Time Preferences -- Social Differences -- Non-strategic Situations -- Strategic Situations -- Cooperation -- Inter-Group Competition -- Complex Decision Environments and Learning -- Morality and Ethical Decision Making -- Self-Selection into Teamwork -- Field Evidence on Working in Teams with Incentive Dependence -- Summary -- References.

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-031-44423-X

Language: English

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (297 pages)

Edition: 1st ed. 2024.

ISBN: 3-031-44424-8

Series Statement: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 350

Content: This book lays out a foundation and taxonomy for Behavioral Decision Analysis, featuring representative work across various domains. Traditional research in the domain of Decision Analysis has focused on the design and application of logically consistent tools to support decision makers during the process of structuring problem complexity, modeling uncertainty, generating predictions, eliciting preferences, and, ultimately, making better decisions. Two commonly held assumptions are that the decision maker’s cognitive belief system is fully accessible and that this system can be understood and formalized by trained analysts. However, in past years, an active line of research has emerged studying instances in which such assumptions may not hold. This book unites this community under the common theme of Behavioral Decision Analysis. The taxonomy used in this book categorizes research based on task focus (prediction or decision) and behavioral level (individual or group). Two theoretical lenses that lie at the interface between (1) normative and descriptive research, and (2) normative and prescriptive research are introduced. The book then proceeds to highlight representative works across the two lenses focused on individual and group-level decision making. Featuring various methodologies and applications, the book serves as a reference for researchers, students, and professionals across different disciplines with a common interest in Behavioral Decision Analysis.

Note: Behavioral Decision Analysis - Past, Present and Future -- Behavioral Decision Research: Descriptive and Prescriptive Perspectives -- Behavioral Biases in the Uncertainty Quantification Process -- Analyzing Decisions Under Uncertainty: Simple Tools Of the Heathens -- Should an Analyst Share Calibration Information with Experts? -- The Role of Environmental Instability in Detecting and Responding to Signals of Impending Regime Shifts -- The Social Psychology of the Wisdom of Crowds -- Predicting Behavior in Games: Loss Aversion vs. Rank Dependent Utility vs. Range Utility Theory -- Consequences of Missing Objectives in Applications of Multiattribute Utility Analysis -- "When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes" -- The near-miss bias -- Behavioral challenges in practice when dealing with public environmental decision problems -- Team decision making.

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-031-44423-X

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-44424-1