UID:
edocfu_9958073087902883
Format:
1 online resource (34 p.)
ISBN:
1-4623-2858-X
,
1-4527-4910-8
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1-283-45035-6
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9786613823656
,
1-4519-1206-4
Series Statement:
IMF working paper ; WP/07/189
Content:
Panel estimates based on 19 transition economies suggests that some central banks may aim at comparatively high inflation rates mainly to make up for, and to perhaps exploit, lagging internal and external liberalization in their economies. Out-of-sample forecasts, based on expected developments in the underlying structure of these economies, and assuming no changes in institutions, suggest that incentives may be diminishing, but not to the point where inflation levels below 5 percent could credibly be announced as targets. Greater economic liberalization would help reduce incentives for higher inflation, and enhancements to central bank independence could help shield these central banks from pressures.
Note:
Description based upon print version of record.
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Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Inflation in CEEC and CIS, 2001-05; II. Could the Inflation Differential Simply Be a Statistical Artifact?; Tables; 1. Estimates of Inflation Bias in Advanced Economies and the Czech Republic; 2. Weights of Sectors in CPI, 2001-05; 3. Inflation Based on Different Weights: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, 2001-05 ..; III. Modeling the Inflation Differential; 4. Government Stability in Transition Countries, Averages 1999-2003; IV. Empirical Methodology and Results; 2. Terms of Trade; 3. Crop Production
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5. Panel Unit Root Tests for the Rate of Depreciation of MoneyV. The Empirical Model; 4. Fitted versus Actual Inflation, 1996-2004; 6. Results from Panel Regressions: Role of Output-Inflation Trade-off and Exogenous Factors; 7. Results from Panel Regressions: Role of Institutions; 8. Results from Panel Regressions: Role of Structural Features; VI. What Does the Model Say about the Inflation Differential?; 5. Factors Underlying Inflation Differences, 1996-2004; 6. Factors Underlying Inflation Differences, by Country, 1997-2004; 7. Forecast Inflation, CIS West, 1996-2007
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VII. Summary and ConclusionsAppendices; I. Recent Studies of Inflation in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova; II. Recent Cross-Country Studies on Inflation; III. Data; IV. Data Correlation Matrices; V. Robustness of Econometric Results; References
,
English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-4518-6753-0
Language:
English
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