UID:
almafu_9958096574102883
Format:
1 online resource (37 p.)
ISBN:
1-4623-0054-5
,
1-4519-9048-0
,
1-281-60164-0
,
9786613782335
,
1-4518-9594-1
Series Statement:
IMF Working Papers
Content:
We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference and error-correction specifications, and model performance is evaluated at forecast horizons of 1, 4, and 20 quarters, using the mean squared error, direction of change metrics, and the "consistency" test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period do not necessarily work well in another period.
Note:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. THEORETICAL MODELS""; ""III. DATA, ESTIMATION, AND FORECASTING COMPARISON""; ""IV. COMPARING THE FORECAST PERFORMANCE""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""ACKNOWLEDGMENTS""; ""DATA""; ""EVALUATING FORECAST ACCURACY""; ""References""
,
English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-4518-4949-4
Language:
English
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