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Format: xvii, 274 Seiten , Illustrationen, Diagramme , 23.5 cm x 15.5 cm

ISBN: 3662489570 , 9783662489574

Series Statement: Earth systems data and models volume 2

Content: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Additional Edition: ISBN 9783662489598

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe Gettelman, Andrew Demystifying climate models Berlin : SpringerOpen, 2016 ISBN 9783662489598

Language: English

Subjects: Physics , Geography

Keywords: Klima ; Modell ; Klima ; Modell

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8

URL: Inhaltsverzeichnis

URL: Inhaltstext

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URL: http://www.springer.com/

URL: Inhaltstext

URL: Inhaltsverzeichnis

Author information: Gettelman, Andrew

Author information: Rood, Richard B.

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (XVII, 274 p. 62 illus., 58 illus. in color.)

Edition: 1st ed. 2016.

ISBN: 3-662-48959-7

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models, 2

Content: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Note: Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph , Introduction.-Components of the Climate System -- Climate Change and Global Warming -- Essence of a Climate Model -- Simulating the Atmosphere -- Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice -- Simulating Terrestrial Systems -- Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity -- Model Evaluation -- Predictability -- Results of Current Models -- Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners -- Summary and Final Thoughts. , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-662-48957-0

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8

UID:

Format: 1 Online-Ressource (274 p.)

ISBN: 9783662489598 , 9784431548041

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models

Content: Civil engineering; Climate change management

Note: English

Language: English

URL: kostenfrei

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (282 pages)

ISBN: 9783662489598

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models Ser. ; v.2

Note: Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- About the Authors -- Introduction -- Part I Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts -- 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling -- 1.1 What Is Climate? -- 1.2 What Is a Model? -- 1.3 Uncertainty -- 1.3.1 Model Uncertainty -- 1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty -- 1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty -- 1.3.4 Total Uncertainty -- 1.4 Summary -- 2 Components of the Climate System -- 2.1 Components of the Earth System -- 2.1.1 The Atmosphere -- 2.1.2 The Ocean and Sea Ice -- 2.1.3 Terrestrial Systems -- 2.2 Timescales and Interactions -- 2.3 Summary -- 3 Climate Change and Global Warming -- 3.1 Coupling of the Pieces -- 3.2 Forcing the Climate System -- 3.3 Climate History -- 3.4 Understanding Where the Energy Goes -- 3.5 Summary -- 4 Essence of a Climate Model -- 4.1 Scientific Principles in Climate Models -- 4.2 Basic Formulation and Constraints -- 4.2.1 Finite Pieces -- 4.2.2 Processes -- 4.2.3 Marching Forward in Time -- 4.2.4 Examples of Finite Element Models -- 4.3 Coupled Models -- 4.4 A Brief History of Climate Models -- 4.5 Computational Aspects of Climate Modeling -- 4.5.1 The Computer Program -- 4.5.2 Running a Model -- 4.6 Summary -- Part II Model Mechanics -- 5 Simulating the Atmosphere -- 5.1 Role of the Atmosphere in Climate -- 5.2 Types of Atmospheric Models -- 5.3 General Circulation -- 5.4 Parts of an Atmosphere Model -- 5.4.1 Clouds -- 5.4.2 Radiative Energy -- 5.4.3 Chemistry -- 5.5 Weather Models Versus Climate Models -- 5.6 Challenges for Atmospheric Models -- 5.6.1 Uncertain and Unknown Processes -- 5.6.2 Scales -- 5.6.3 Feedbacks -- 5.6.4 Cloud Feedback -- 5.7 Applications: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones -- 5.8 Summary -- 6 Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice -- 6.1 Understanding the Ocean -- 6.1.1 Structure of the Ocean -- 6.1.2 Forcing of the Ocean -- 6.2 "Limited" Ocean Models. , 6.3 Ocean General Circulation Models -- 6.3.1 Topography and Grids -- 6.3.2 Deep Ocean -- 6.3.3 Eddies in the Ocean -- 6.3.4 Surface Ocean -- 6.3.5 Structure of an Ocean Model -- 6.3.6 Ocean Versus Atmosphere Models -- 6.4 Sea-Ice Modeling -- 6.5 The Ocean Carbon Cycle -- 6.6 Challenges -- 6.6.1 Challenges in Ocean Modeling -- 6.6.2 Challenges in Sea Ice Modeling -- 6.7 Applications: Sea-Level Rise, Norfolk, Virginia -- 6.8 Summary -- 7 Simulating Terrestrial Systems -- 7.1 Role of the Land Surface in Climate -- 7.1.1 Precipitation and the Water Cycle -- 7.1.2 Vegetation -- 7.1.3 Ice and Snow -- 7.1.4 Human Impacts -- 7.2 Building a Land Surface Simulation -- 7.2.1 Evolution of a Terrestrial System Model -- 7.2.2 Biogeophysics: Surface Fluxes and Heat -- 7.2.3 Biogeophysics: Hydrology -- 7.2.4 Ecosystem Dynamics (Vegetation and Land Cover/Use Change) -- 7.2.5 Summary: Structure of a Land Model -- 7.3 Biogeochemistry: Carbon and Other Nutrient Cycles -- 7.4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions -- 7.5 Land Ice -- 7.6 Humans -- 7.7 Integrated Assessment Models -- 7.8 Challenges in Terrestrial System Modeling -- 7.8.1 Ice Sheet Modeling -- 7.8.2 Surface Albedo Feedback -- 7.8.3 Carbon Feedback -- 7.9 Applications: Wolf and Moose Ecosystem, Isle Royale National Park -- 7.10 Summary -- 8 Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity -- 8.1 Types of Coupled Models -- 8.1.1 Regional Models -- 8.1.2 Statistical Models and Downscaling -- 8.1.3 Integrated Assessment Models -- 8.2 Coupling Models Together: Common Threads -- 8.3 Key Interactions in Climate Models -- 8.3.1 Intermixing of the Feedback Loops -- 8.3.2 Water Feedbacks -- 8.3.3 Albedo Feedbacks -- 8.3.4 Ocean Feedbacks -- 8.3.5 Sea-Level Change -- 8.4 Coupled Modes of Climate Variability -- 8.4.1 Tropical Cyclones -- 8.4.2 Monsoons -- 8.4.3 El Niño -- 8.4.4 Precipitation and the Land Surface. , 8.4.5 Carbon Cycle and Climate -- 8.5 Challenges -- 8.6 Applications: Integrated Assessment of Water Resources -- 8.7 Summary -- Part III Using Models -- 9 Model Evaluation -- 9.1 Evaluation Versus Validation -- 9.1.1 Evaluation and Missing Information -- 9.1.2 Observations -- 9.1.3 Model Improvement -- 9.2 Climate Model Evaluation -- 9.2.1 Types of Comparisons -- 9.2.2 Model Simulations -- 9.2.3 Using Model Evaluation to Guide Further Observations -- 9.3 Predicting the Future: Forecasts Versus Projections -- 9.3.1 Forecasts -- 9.3.2 Projections -- 9.4 Applications of Climate Model Evaluation: Ozone Assessment -- 9.5 Summary -- 10 Predictability -- 10.1 Knowledge and Key Uncertainties -- 10.1.1 Physics of the System -- 10.1.2 Variability -- 10.1.3 Sensitivity to Changes -- 10.2 Types of Uncertainty and Timescales -- 10.2.1 Predicting the Near Term: Initial Condition Uncertainty -- 10.2.2 Predicting the Next 30-50 Years: Scenario Uncertainty -- 10.2.3 Predicting the Long Term: Model Uncertainty Versus Scenario Uncertainty -- 10.3 Ensembles: Multiple Models and Simulations -- 10.4 Applications: Developing and Using Scenarios -- 10.5 Summary -- 11 Results of Current Models -- 11.1 Organization of Climate Model Results -- 11.2 Prediction and Uncertainty -- 11.2.1 Goals of Prediction -- 11.2.2 Uncertainty -- 11.2.3 Why Models? -- 11.3 What Is the Confidence in Predictions? -- 11.3.1 Confident Predictions -- 11.3.1.1 Temperature -- 11.3.1.2 Precipitation -- 11.3.2 Uncertain Predictions: Where to Be Cautious -- 11.3.3 Bad Predictions -- 11.3.4 How Do We Predict Extreme Events? -- 11.4 Climate Impacts and Extremes -- 11.4.1 Tropical Cyclones -- 11.4.2 Stream Flow and Extreme Events -- 11.4.3 Electricity Demand and Extreme Events -- 11.5 Application: Climate Model Impacts in Colorado -- 11.6 Summary. , 12 Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners -- 12.1 Knowledge Systems -- 12.2 Interpretation and Translation -- 12.2.1 Barriers to the Use of Climate Model Projections -- 12.2.2 Downscaled Datasets -- 12.2.3 Climate Assessments -- 12.2.4 Expert Analysis -- 12.3 Uncertainty -- 12.3.1 Ensembles -- 12.3.2 Uncertainty in Assessment Reports -- 12.4 Framing Uncertainty -- 12.5 Summary -- 13 Summary and Final Thoughts -- 13.1 What Is Climate? -- 13.2 Key Features of a Climate Model -- 13.3 Components of the Climate System -- 13.3.1 The Atmosphere -- 13.3.2 The Ocean -- 13.3.3 Terrestrial Systems -- 13.3.4 Coupled Components -- 13.4 Evaluation and Uncertainty -- 13.4.1 Evaluation -- 13.4.2 Uncertainty -- 13.5 What We Know (and Do not Know) -- 13.6 The Future of Climate Modeling -- 13.6.1 Increasing Resolution -- 13.6.2 New and Improved Processes -- 13.6.3 Challenges -- 13.7 Final Thoughts -- Climate Modeling Text Glossary -- Index.

Additional Edition: Print version: Gettelman, Andrew Demystifying Climate Models Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin / Heidelberg,c2016 ISBN 9783662489574

Language: English

Keywords: Electronic books.

URL: Click to View

URL: lizenzpflichtig

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (XVII, 274 p. 62 illus., 58 illus. in color.)

Edition: 1st ed. 2016.

ISBN: 3-662-48959-7

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models, 2

Content: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Note: Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph , Introduction.-Components of the Climate System -- Climate Change and Global Warming -- Essence of a Climate Model -- Simulating the Atmosphere -- Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice -- Simulating Terrestrial Systems -- Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity -- Model Evaluation -- Predictability -- Results of Current Models -- Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners -- Summary and Final Thoughts. , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-662-48957-0

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (XVII, 274 p. 62 illus., 58 illus. in color.)

Edition: 1st ed. 2016.

ISBN: 3-662-48959-7

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models, 2

Content: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Note: Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph , Introduction.-Components of the Climate System -- Climate Change and Global Warming -- Essence of a Climate Model -- Simulating the Atmosphere -- Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice -- Simulating Terrestrial Systems -- Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity -- Model Evaluation -- Predictability -- Results of Current Models -- Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners -- Summary and Final Thoughts. , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-662-48957-0

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8

UID:

Format: 1 Online-Ressource (34 Seiten)

Content: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

Content: Peer Reviewed

In: Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus Publications, 16,6, Seiten 2625-2658

Language: English

DOI: 10.18452/29051

DOI: 10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024

URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/29673-7

URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)

UID:

Format: 1 Online-Ressource (XVII, 274 p. 62 illus., 58 illus. in color)

ISBN: 9783662489598

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models volume 2

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe ISBN 978-3-662-48957-4

Language: English

Subjects: Geography

Keywords: Klima ; Modell ; Klimaänderung ; Modellierung ; Computersimulation

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8

URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)

URL: Inhaltsverzeichnis

URL: Abstract

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (282 pages)

ISBN: 9783662489598

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models Ser. v.2

Note: Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- About the Authors -- Introduction -- Part I Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts -- 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling -- 1.1 What Is Climate? -- 1.2 What Is a Model? -- 1.3 Uncertainty -- 1.3.1 Model Uncertainty -- 1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty -- 1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty -- 1.3.4 Total Uncertainty -- 1.4 Summary -- 2 Components of the Climate System -- 2.1 Components of the Earth System -- 2.1.1 The Atmosphere -- 2.1.2 The Ocean and Sea Ice -- 2.1.3 Terrestrial Systems -- 2.2 Timescales and Interactions -- 2.3 Summary -- 3 Climate Change and Global Warming -- 3.1 Coupling of the Pieces -- 3.2 Forcing the Climate System -- 3.3 Climate History -- 3.4 Understanding Where the Energy Goes -- 3.5 Summary -- 4 Essence of a Climate Model -- 4.1 Scientific Principles in Climate Models -- 4.2 Basic Formulation and Constraints -- 4.2.1 Finite Pieces -- 4.2.2 Processes -- 4.2.3 Marching Forward in Time -- 4.2.4 Examples of Finite Element Models -- 4.3 Coupled Models -- 4.4 A Brief History of Climate Models -- 4.5 Computational Aspects of Climate Modeling -- 4.5.1 The Computer Program -- 4.5.2 Running a Model -- 4.6 Summary -- Part II Model Mechanics -- 5 Simulating the Atmosphere -- 5.1 Role of the Atmosphere in Climate -- 5.2 Types of Atmospheric Models -- 5.3 General Circulation -- 5.4 Parts of an Atmosphere Model -- 5.4.1 Clouds -- 5.4.2 Radiative Energy -- 5.4.3 Chemistry -- 5.5 Weather Models Versus Climate Models -- 5.6 Challenges for Atmospheric Models -- 5.6.1 Uncertain and Unknown Processes -- 5.6.2 Scales -- 5.6.3 Feedbacks -- 5.6.4 Cloud Feedback -- 5.7 Applications: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones -- 5.8 Summary -- 6 Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice -- 6.1 Understanding the Ocean -- 6.1.1 Structure of the Ocean -- 6.1.2 Forcing of the Ocean -- 6.2 "Limited" Ocean Models , 12 Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners -- 12.1 Knowledge Systems -- 12.2 Interpretation and Translation -- 12.2.1 Barriers to the Use of Climate Model Projections -- 12.2.2 Downscaled Datasets -- 12.2.3 Climate Assessments -- 12.2.4 Expert Analysis -- 12.3 Uncertainty -- 12.3.1 Ensembles -- 12.3.2 Uncertainty in Assessment Reports -- 12.4 Framing Uncertainty -- 12.5 Summary -- 13 Summary and Final Thoughts -- 13.1 What Is Climate? -- 13.2 Key Features of a Climate Model -- 13.3 Components of the Climate System -- 13.3.1 The Atmosphere -- 13.3.2 The Ocean -- 13.3.3 Terrestrial Systems -- 13.3.4 Coupled Components -- 13.4 Evaluation and Uncertainty -- 13.4.1 Evaluation -- 13.4.2 Uncertainty -- 13.5 What We Know (and Do not Know) -- 13.6 The Future of Climate Modeling -- 13.6.1 Increasing Resolution -- 13.6.2 New and Improved Processes -- 13.6.3 Challenges -- 13.7 Final Thoughts -- Climate Modeling Text Glossary -- Index , 6.3 Ocean General Circulation Models -- 6.3.1 Topography and Grids -- 6.3.2 Deep Ocean -- 6.3.3 Eddies in the Ocean -- 6.3.4 Surface Ocean -- 6.3.5 Structure of an Ocean Model -- 6.3.6 Ocean Versus Atmosphere Models -- 6.4 Sea-Ice Modeling -- 6.5 The Ocean Carbon Cycle -- 6.6 Challenges -- 6.6.1 Challenges in Ocean Modeling -- 6.6.2 Challenges in Sea Ice Modeling -- 6.7 Applications: Sea-Level Rise, Norfolk, Virginia -- 6.8 Summary -- 7 Simulating Terrestrial Systems -- 7.1 Role of the Land Surface in Climate -- 7.1.1 Precipitation and the Water Cycle -- 7.1.2 Vegetation -- 7.1.3 Ice and Snow -- 7.1.4 Human Impacts -- 7.2 Building a Land Surface Simulation -- 7.2.1 Evolution of a Terrestrial System Model -- 7.2.2 Biogeophysics: Surface Fluxes and Heat -- 7.2.3 Biogeophysics: Hydrology -- 7.2.4 Ecosystem Dynamics (Vegetation and Land Cover/Use Change) -- 7.2.5 Summary: Structure of a Land Model -- 7.3 Biogeochemistry: Carbon and Other Nutrient Cycles -- 7.4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions -- 7.5 Land Ice -- 7.6 Humans -- 7.7 Integrated Assessment Models -- 7.8 Challenges in Terrestrial System Modeling -- 7.8.1 Ice Sheet Modeling -- 7.8.2 Surface Albedo Feedback -- 7.8.3 Carbon Feedback -- 7.9 Applications: Wolf and Moose Ecosystem, Isle Royale National Park -- 7.10 Summary -- 8 Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity -- 8.1 Types of Coupled Models -- 8.1.1 Regional Models -- 8.1.2 Statistical Models and Downscaling -- 8.1.3 Integrated Assessment Models -- 8.2 Coupling Models Together: Common Threads -- 8.3 Key Interactions in Climate Models -- 8.3.1 Intermixing of the Feedback Loops -- 8.3.2 Water Feedbacks -- 8.3.3 Albedo Feedbacks -- 8.3.4 Ocean Feedbacks -- 8.3.5 Sea-Level Change -- 8.4 Coupled Modes of Climate Variability -- 8.4.1 Tropical Cyclones -- 8.4.2 Monsoons -- 8.4.3 El Niño -- 8.4.4 Precipitation and the Land Surface , 8.4.5 Carbon Cycle and Climate -- 8.5 Challenges -- 8.6 Applications: Integrated Assessment of Water Resources -- 8.7 Summary -- Part III Using Models -- 9 Model Evaluation -- 9.1 Evaluation Versus Validation -- 9.1.1 Evaluation and Missing Information -- 9.1.2 Observations -- 9.1.3 Model Improvement -- 9.2 Climate Model Evaluation -- 9.2.1 Types of Comparisons -- 9.2.2 Model Simulations -- 9.2.3 Using Model Evaluation to Guide Further Observations -- 9.3 Predicting the Future: Forecasts Versus Projections -- 9.3.1 Forecasts -- 9.3.2 Projections -- 9.4 Applications of Climate Model Evaluation: Ozone Assessment -- 9.5 Summary -- 10 Predictability -- 10.1 Knowledge and Key Uncertainties -- 10.1.1 Physics of the System -- 10.1.2 Variability -- 10.1.3 Sensitivity to Changes -- 10.2 Types of Uncertainty and Timescales -- 10.2.1 Predicting the Near Term: Initial Condition Uncertainty -- 10.2.2 Predicting the Next 30-50 Years: Scenario Uncertainty -- 10.2.3 Predicting the Long Term: Model Uncertainty Versus Scenario Uncertainty -- 10.3 Ensembles: Multiple Models and Simulations -- 10.4 Applications: Developing and Using Scenarios -- 10.5 Summary -- 11 Results of Current Models -- 11.1 Organization of Climate Model Results -- 11.2 Prediction and Uncertainty -- 11.2.1 Goals of Prediction -- 11.2.2 Uncertainty -- 11.2.3 Why Models? -- 11.3 What Is the Confidence in Predictions? -- 11.3.1 Confident Predictions -- 11.3.1.1 Temperature -- 11.3.1.2 Precipitation -- 11.3.2 Uncertain Predictions: Where to Be Cautious -- 11.3.3 Bad Predictions -- 11.3.4 How Do We Predict Extreme Events? -- 11.4 Climate Impacts and Extremes -- 11.4.1 Tropical Cyclones -- 11.4.2 Stream Flow and Extreme Events -- 11.4.3 Electricity Demand and Extreme Events -- 11.5 Application: Climate Model Impacts in Colorado -- 11.6 Summary

Additional Edition: Print version Gettelman, Andrew Demystifying Climate Models Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin / Heidelberg,c2016 ISBN 9783662489574

Language: English

Keywords: Electronic books.

URL: FULL  ((Currently Only Available on Campus))

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (XVII, 274 pages 62 illustrations, 58 illustrations in color.) : , online resource

ISBN: 9783662489598 , 3662489597 , 9783662489574 , 3662489570

Series Statement: Earth Systems Data and Models, 2

Content: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth?s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Note: Introduction.-Components of the Climate System -- Climate Change and Global Warming -- Essence of a Climate Model -- Simulating the Atmosphere -- Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice -- Simulating Terrestrial Systems -- Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity -- Model Evaluation -- Predictability -- Results of Current Models -- Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners -- Summary and Final Thoughts.

In: Springer eBooks

Additional Edition: Printed edition: 9783662489574

Language: English

Keywords: Electronic books. ; Electronic books.

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8

URL: ProQuest Ebook Central

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