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  • 1
    UID:
    almafu_9958246524702883
    Format: 1 online resource (43 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The 2013 World Trade Organization ministerial in Bali produced a comprehensive framework agreement on trade facilitation. If fully implemented, the agreement should increase the speed and reduce the cost of moving goods across international borders. But which reforms are most likely to improve these outcomes, how much improvement should be expected, and what might such improvements be worth? This paper adopts the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's trade facilitation indicators as quantitative descriptions of trade facilitation policy. It estimates the impact of the indicators and other variables on the time necessary to clear customs, the associated cost, and a customs performance index. Of the 12 policy bundles, the good governance and impartiality indicator is most clearly related to customs clearance time. A move to best practice in all policies by all World Trade Organization members would reduce the predicted time spent in customs by an average of 1.6 days for imports and 2 days for exports. Using a conservative estimate of the value of time in trade, such comprehensive reforms imply a mean tariff equivalent reduction of 0.9 percentage points on imports and 1.2 percentage points on exports. The same estimates are used to calculate welfare gains of policy reform by World Trade Organization members. Reform in China alone accounts for roughly one-fourth of the global benefits from the Trade Facilitation Agreement.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    UID:
    almafu_9958246566902883
    Format: 1 online resource (33 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: What kinds of changes in foreign competition lead domestic industries to seek import protection? To address this question this paper uses detailed monthly U.S. import data to investigate changes in import composition during a 24-month window immediately preceding the filing of a petition for protection. A decomposition methodology allows a comparison of imports from two groups of countries supplying the same product: those that are named in the petition and those that are not. The same decomposition can be applied to products quite similar to the imports in question, but not subject to a petition. The results suggest that industries typically seek protection when faced with a specific pattern of shocks. First, a persistent positive relative supply shock favors imports from named countries. Second, a negative demand shock hits imports from all sources just prior to domestic industries' petition for protection. The relative supply shock is a broad one; it applies both to named commodities and to the comparison product group. The import demand shock, by contrast, is narrow, hitting only named products. The latter shock is also large: import growth over the two-year window is 15 percentage points lower in named products than in reference products, with most of this gap arising in the final two quarters before the petition. The negative import demand shock appears to be a key event in the run-up to the filing of a petition. It has been missed by previous studies using more aggregated data.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    UID:
    almafu_9958143922302883
    Format: 1 online resource (61 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Despite the importance of trade facilitation as an area of trade and development policy, there have been very few impact evaluations of specific trade facilitation reforms. This paper offers an evaluation of in-house clearance, a reform that allows qualified firms in Serbia to clear customs from within their own warehouse rather than at the customs office. The pooled synthetic control method applied here offers a novel solution to many of the empirical challenges that frustrate efforts to evaluate trade facilitation reforms. The method is used to estimate causal impacts on trade outcomes for 21 firms that adopted in-house clearance for import shipments. The program compressed the distribution of clearance times for adopting firms, but the estimated effects on median clearance times, inspection rates, and import value were not statistically significant. Tests for heterogeneous program impact do not indicate that the program affected adopting firms differently. Overall, the results suggest that the most evident benefit of the program for participating firms is reduced uncertainty about clearance times.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    UID:
    almafu_9958246553302883
    Format: 1 online resource (37 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The dynamism of air traffic markets in the Middle East obscures the persistence of restrictions on international competition. But how important are such restrictions for passenger traffic? This paper uses detailed data on worldwide passenger aviation to estimate the effect of air transport policy on international air traffic. The policy variable is a quantitative measure of the commitments under international agreements. The paper analyzes, for the first time, not only bilateral agreements, but also plurilateral agreements such as the one between Arab states. The analysis finds that more liberal policy is associated with greater passenger traffic between countries. Higher traffic levels appear to be driven primarily by larger numbers of city pairs being served, rather than by more passengers traveling along given routes. To demonstrate the quantitative implication of the estimates, two liberalization scenarios in the Middle East are evaluated. Deepening the plurilateral agreement among Arab states would lead to a 30 percent increase in intraregional passenger traffic. Widening the agreement to include Turkey would generate significantly larger gains because current policy vis-`-vis Turkey is much more restrictive.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    UID:
    almafu_9958143952202883
    Format: 1 online resource (71 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: International supply chains require the coordination of numerous activities across multiple countries and firms. This paper develops a theoretical model of supply chains in which the measure of tasks completed within a firm is determined by parameters that define transaction costs and the cost of coordinating more activities within the firm. The structural parameters that govern these costs explain variation in supply chain length as well as cross-country variation in gross-output-to-value-added ratios. The structural parameters are linked to comparative advantage along and across supply chains. The paper provides an analytical treatment of trade and welfare responses to trade cost change in a simple two-country model. To explore the models implications in a richer setting, the model is calibrated to match key observables in East Asia, and the calibrated model is used to evaluate implications of changes in model parameters for trade, welfare, the length of supply chains, and countries relative position within them.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 6
    UID:
    almafu_9958307341502883
    Format: 1 online resource (57 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Impact evaluations of trade facilitation reforms have almost exclusively focused on reforms by data-rich customs agencies. Other "technical" agencies also intervene in the logistics of international trade, and do so in ways that can cause significant interruptions in the flow of the imported products they oversee. This paper is the first to evaluate a reform by a technical agency, namely, the agency responsible for food safety and animal health in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The data environment is much more challenging than in customs, but enables the investigation of novel questions. The study finds that on-the-ground practices regarding sampling of import shipments departed substantially from those planned in the reform. It finds little evidence that the reform was successful in its attempt to improve the targeting of risky shipments. There is limited evidence that the reform increased trade flows, but circumstances make it difficult to establish a strong causal link to the specific reform studied.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    UID:
    almafu_9959699030602883
    Format: 1 online resource (42 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: As part of their commitments under the World Trade Organization's Agreement on Trade Facilitation, many developing countries are set to adopt risk management, a strategy for selecting import shipments for inspection. This paper formalizes key enforcement issues related to risk management. It argues that the complexities of international trade oversight mean that inspecting agencies lack certainty about the conditional probability that a given shipment will not comply with import regulations. Ambiguity of this sort is likely to be especially important in developing countries that lack the sophisticated information technology used in advanced risk management systems. This paper formalizes a role for ambiguity in a theoretical model of border inspection. It provides evidence suggesting that ambiguity affects inspection rates. Finally, the paper calibrates the model and shock the ambiguity parameters to illustrate the consequences of an information technology-driven improvement in risk management capabilities for equilibrium rates of search and compliance.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 8
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048269357
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Content: Despite enormous academic interest in international trade costs and keen policy interest in efforts to mitigate them, so far there is very little hard evidence on the impacts of trade facilitation efforts. This paper exploits a dramatic reduction in the rate of physical inspections by Albanian customs to estimate the effects of fewer inspection-related delays on the level and composition of imports. In this setting, the paper finds evidence that the expected median number of days spent in Albanian customs falls by 7 percent when the probability that a shipment is inspected falls from 50 percent or more to under 50 percent. In turn, this reduction in time produces a 7 percent increase in import value. The paper finds evidence that the reforms favored imports from preferential trading partners, especially the European Union. There are also reform-induced changes in the composition of trade, including increases in average quantities and unit prices, the number of shipments, and the number of importing firms per product-country pair and the number of countries per firm-product pair. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the estimate of 7 percent import growth along an intensive margin is roughly consistent with a 0.36 percentage point reduction in average tariff equivalent trade costs. Applying this figure to the value of Albania's non-oil imports produces a reform-induced trade cost savings estimate of approximately US
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Fernandes, Ana M Trade Effects of Customs Reform Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2015
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 9
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048269579
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Content: Industry
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Alc�ntara, Alejandra Mendoza Understanding the Operations of Freight Forwarders: Evidence from Serbia Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2015
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 10
    UID:
    almafu_BV026945401
    Format: 10 S. : , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 9022
    Language: English
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