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  • 1
    UID:
    almafu_9958246211402883
    Format: 1 online resource (32 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30, which shows how these revisions have affected medium-term prospects. The analysis shows a decrease, since 1970, in technological optimism about switching away from fossil fuels; this decrease is unsurprisingly correlated with a decline in modelers' beliefs in the suitability of nuclear energy. But, after a trend of increasing optimism, a declining trend also characterizes renewable energies in the 1980s and 1990s before a slight revival of technological optimism about renewables in the aftermath of Kyoto.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 2
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049075417
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource
    Edition: Online-Ausg Also available in print
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 3180
    Note: "December 24, 2003 , Includes bibliographical references , Title from title screen as viewed on January 6, 2004
    Additional Edition: Hourcade, Jean Charles Equitable provision of long-term public goods
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    UID:
    b3kat_BV047031701
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (106 p.)
    ISBN: 9782759807253 , 9782759808465
    Note: Includes bibliographical references
    Language: French
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 4
    UID:
    almafu_BV040364310
    Format: XXVII, 520 s. : , graph. Darst.
    Edition: 1. publ.
    ISBN: 978-0-415-51882-6
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics , Political Science
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Keywords: Klimaänderung ; Energiewirtschaft ; Transformation ; Nachhaltigkeit ; Energiepolitik ; Umweltökonomie ; Nachhaltigkeit
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  • 5
    UID:
    almafu_BV041957284
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (xxvii, 520 Seiten) : , Diagramme.
    ISBN: 978-1-315-85768-8
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index , Pillar 1. Standards and engagement for smarter choices -- Pillar 2. Markets and prices for cleaner products and processes -- Pillar 3. Strategic investment for innovation and infrastructure
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-0-415-51882-6
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics , Political Science
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Keywords: Klimaänderung ; Energiewirtschaft ; Transformation ; Nachhaltigkeit ; Energiepolitik ; Umweltökonomie ; Nachhaltigkeit
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 6
    UID:
    gbv_834965623
    Format: Online-Ressource (19 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Content: This note highlights a major reason to limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty arises from three sources: the change in climate itself, the change’s impacts at the sector level, and their macroeconomic costs. First, the greater the difference between the future climate and the current one, the more difficult it is to predict how local climates will evolve, making it more difficult to anticipate adaptation actions. Second, the adaptive capacity of various economic sectors can already be observed for limited warming, but is largely unknown for larger changes. The larger the change in climate, therefore, the more uncertain is the final impact on economic sectors. Third, economic systems can efficiently cope with sectoral losses, but macroeconomic-level adaptive capacity is difficult to assess, especially when it involves more than marginal economic changes and when structural economic shifts are required. In particular, these shifts are difficult to model and involve thresholds beyond which the total macroeconomic cost would rise rapidly. The existence of such thresholds is supported by past experiences, including economic disruptions caused by natural disasters, observed difficulties funding needed infrastructure, and regional crises due to rapid economic shifts induced by new technologies or globalization. As a consequence, larger warming is associated with higher cost, but also with larger uncertainty about the cost. Because this uncertainty translates into risks and makes it more difficult to implement adaptation strategies, it represents an additional motive to mitigate climate change
    Additional Edition: Hallegatte, Stephane A Note On the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale To Limit It Below 2°C
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    UID:
    gbv_1832353893
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (106 p.)
    ISBN: 9782759805099 , 9782759808465
    Content: Pourquoi s'intéresser à la préservation à long terme de l'information numérique, alors que les capacités de stockage n'ont jamais été aussi vastes et bon marché ? Cette question soulève un problème de plus en plus important : nos sociétés produisent des masses croissantes d'information, alors même que la durée de vie des supports numériques disponibles pour la conserver n'a jamais été aussi courte. Le stockage ou la sauvegarde à court terme ne soulèvent pas de question particulière, mais archiver de cette façon sur des décennies ou un siècle pose un tout autre problème, dans la mesure où les supports numériques n'ont qu'une durée de vie de 5 ou 10 ans environ. L'évolution de ces supports étant difficile à prévoir, seul un suivi constant des données et leur migration perpétuelle permettront d'en assurer l'archivage, avec un coût d'organisation important. Si ce problème est correctement abordé dans quelques organismes publics spécialisés, il est très largement ignoré du grand public ainsi que de la majorité des institutions ou entreprises. Une importante quantité d'informations personnelles, médicales, scientifiques, techniques, administratives, etc., est ainsi en réel danger de disparition. Devant ce constat, l'Académie des sciences et l'Académie des technologies ont créé un groupe de travail commun, avec l'ambition de faire le point sur le sujet. Le présent rapport se donne un périmètre précis en se concentrant sur la fraction de l'information qui garde sa valeur à long terme : documents soit personnels (souvenirs familiaux, données médicales, ...), soit publics (données scientifiques acquises lors d'expériences uniques, ...). Les stratégies possibles sont discutées et les différents supports de stockage utilisables sont passés en revue, avec une brève discussion de leurs qualités et limitations respectives. Le rapport évalue également la possible généralisation de la stratégie active à l'ensemble des besoins de la société. Enfin sont étudiés les disques optiques numériques enregistrables, pour lesquels une série de mesures alarmantes a été effectuée récemment. Les auteurs proposent quelques pistes qui pourraient conduire à des disques enregistrables de bien meilleure longévité et émettent quatre recommandations de nature à faire prendre conscience de ce problème général et des voies possibles pour le résoudre
    Note: French
    Language: Undetermined
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  • 8
    UID:
    gbv_1750385953
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (107 p)
    Edition: [Online-Ausgabe]
    ISBN: 9782759808465
    Series Statement: Académie des sciences
    Content: Frontmatter -- Résumé -- Table des matières -- Introduction -- Chapitre 1. Périmètre du rapport -- Chapitre 2. Stratégies possibles -- Chapitre 3. Les supports d'information -- Chapitre 4. Une stratégie active généralisée ? Évaluation quantitative -- Chapitre 5. La stratégie passive, les disques optiques numériques -- Conclusion et recommandations -- Abstract -- Conclusion and recommendations -- Appendices -- Liste des auditions du groupe PSN
    Content: Alors que les capacités de stockage n'ont jamais été aussi vastes et bon marché, alors que les données numériques sont véritablement le cerveau et le système nerveux du monde, rares sont les interrogations sur la préservation à long terme de toute l'information numérique. Cette question soulève un problème de plus en plus important : nos sociétés produisent des masses croissantes d'information, alors même que la durée de vie des supports numériques disponibles pour la conserver n'a jamais été aussi courte. Le stockage ou la sauvegarde à court terme ne soulèvent pas de question particulière, mais archiver de cette façon sur des décennies ou un siècle pose un tout autre problème, dans la mesure où les supports numériques n'ont qu'une durée de vie de 5 ou 10 ans environ. L'évolution de ces supports étant difficile à prévoir, seul un suivi constant des données et leur migration perpétuelle permettront d'en assurer l'archivage, avec un coût d'organisation important. Si ce problème est correctement abordé dans quelques organismes publics spécialisés, il est très largement ignoré du grand public ainsi que de la majorité des institutions ou entreprises. Une importante quantité d'informations personnelles, médicales, scientifiques, techniques, administratives, etc., est ainsi en réel danger de disparition. Devant ce constat, l'Académie des sciences et l'Académie des technologies ont créé un groupe de travail commun, avec l'ambition de faire le point sur le sujet. Le présent rapport se donne un périmètre précis en se concentrant sur la fraction de l'information qui garde sa valeur à long terme : documents soit personnels (souvenirs familiaux, données médicales, .), soit publics (données scientifiques acquises lors d'expériences uniques, .). Les stratégies possibles sont discutées et les différents supports de stockage utilisables sont passés en revue, avec une brève discussion de leurs qualités et limitations respectives. Le rapport évalue également la possible généralisation de la stratégie active à l'ensemble des besoins de la société. Enfin sont étudiés les disques optiques numériques enregistrables, pour lesquels une série de mesures alarmantes a été effectuée récemment. Les auteurs proposent quelques pistes qui pourraient conduire à des disques enregistrables de bien meilleure longévité et émettent quatre recommandations de nature à faire prendre conscience de ce problème général et des voies possibles pour le résoudre
    Note: Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. , In French
    Language: French
    URL: Cover
    URL: Cover
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  • 9
    UID:
    almafu_9958246228702883
    Format: 1 online resource (19 pages).
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers
    Content: This note highlights a major reason to limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty arises from three sources: the change in climate itself, the change's impacts at the sector level, and their macroeconomic costs. First, the greater the difference between the future climate and the current one, the more difficult it is to predict how local climates will evolve, making it more difficult to anticipate adaptation actions. Second, the adaptive capacity of various economic sectors can already be observed for limited warming, but is largely unknown for larger changes. The larger the change in climate, therefore, the more uncertain is the final impact on economic sectors. Third, economic systems can efficiently cope with sectoral losses, but macroeconomic-level adaptive capacity is difficult to assess, especially when it involves more than marginal economic changes and when structural economic shifts are required. In particular, these shifts are difficult to model and involve thresholds beyond which the total macroeconomic cost would rise rapidly. The existence of such thresholds is supported by past experiences, including economic disruptions caused by natural disasters, observed difficulties funding needed infrastructure, and regional crises due to rapid economic shifts induced by new technologies or globalization. As a consequence, larger warming is associated with higher cost, but also with larger uncertainty about the cost. Because this uncertainty translates into risks and makes it more difficult to implement adaptation strategies, it represents an additional motive to mitigate climate change.
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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  • 10
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048264621
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (19 p)
    Content: This note highlights a major reason to limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty arises from three sources: the change in climate itself, the change's impacts at the sector level, and their macroeconomic costs. First, the greater the difference between the future climate and the current one, the more difficult it is to predict how local climates will evolve, making it more difficult to anticipate adaptation actions. Second, the adaptive capacity of various economic sectors can already be observed for limited warming, but is largely unknown for larger changes. The larger the change in climate, therefore, the more uncertain is the final impact on economic sectors. Third, economic systems can efficiently cope with sectoral losses, but macroeconomic-level adaptive capacity is difficult to assess, especially when it involves more than marginal economic changes and when structural economic shifts are required. In particular, these shifts are difficult to model and involve thresholds beyond which the total macroeconomic cost would rise rapidly. The existence of such thresholds is supported by past experiences, including economic disruptions caused by natural disasters, observed difficulties funding needed infrastructure, and regional crises due to rapid economic shifts induced by new technologies or globalization. As a consequence, larger warming is associated with higher cost, but also with larger uncertainty about the cost. Because this uncertainty translates into risks and makes it more difficult to implement adaptation strategies, it represents an additional motive to mitigate climate change
    Additional Edition: Hallegatte, Stephane A Note On the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale To Limit It Below 2°C
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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