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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, District of Columbia :World Bank,
    UID:
    almafu_9961102895502883
    Format: 1 online resource (60 pages).
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers
    Content: Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario -- by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year -- if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 2
    UID:
    almafu_9959377666902883
    Format: 1 online resource (36 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point in advanced economies and 1.1 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies. The slowdown mainly reflected weaker capital accumulation but is also evidence of decelerating productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. Unless countered, these forces are expected to continue and to depress global potential growth further by 0.2 percentage point over the next decade. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse this trend, including comprehensive policy initiatives to lift physical and human capital and to encourage labor force participation by women and older workers.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 3
    UID:
    almafu_9959699033302883
    Format: 1 online resource (44 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Since 2000, there have been three major global slowdowns, with the latest and most pronounced episode triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, many countries have faced major adverse events including natural disasters, wars, and financial crises, all of which can lead to long-lasting harm to productivity. Wars inflict particularly severe damage to productivity, while financial crises also lead to substantial losses, especially accompanied by a rapid build-up of debt. The greater frequency of natural disasters, especially climate disasters, means that they have the largest aggregate impact on productivity, as natural disasters have occurred most often and their frequency has doubled since 2000. Global adverse events can have large sustained negative effects on productivity through dislocating labor, tightening of credit, disrupting value chains, and decreasing innovation. Policies to counter the negative consequences of adverse shocks include accommodative fiscal policies, such as reconstruction spending on resilient infrastructure; transparent governance; efficient use of relief funds; as well as growth-friendly structural reforms. Appropriate policies and regulations concerning finance, construction, and environmental protection can help reduce the frequency of adverse shocks.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 4
    UID:
    almafu_9959045268502883
    Format: 1 online resource (22 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries have increased substantially in recent years. Since 2013, median government debt has risen by about 20 percentage points of gross domestic product and increasingly comes from non-concessional and private sources. As a result, in most low-income countries, interest payments are absorbing an increasing proportion of government revenues. The majority of low-income countries would be hard hit by a sudden weakening in trade or global financial conditions given high levels of external debt, lack of fiscal space, low foreign currency reserves, and undiversified exports. A proactive effort to identify and reduce debt-related vulnerabilities is a priority for many low-income countries. Policy makers should focus on mobilizing domestic resources, improving debt transparency, and strengthening debt management practices. These efforts should be complemented by measures to strengthen fiscal frameworks, improve the efficiency of public expenditures and public investment management, and develop domestic financial systems.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 5
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049079218
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (108 Seiten)
    Content: Potential growth slowed in most emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) regions in the past decade. The steepest slowdown occurred in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), although potential growth in EAP remained one of the two highest among EMDE regions, the other being South Asia (SAR), where potential growth remained broadly unchanged. Projections of the fundamental drivers of growth suggest that, without reforms, potential growth in EMDEs will continue to weaken over the remainder of this decade. The slowdown will be most pronounced in EAP and Europe and Central Asia because of slowing labor force growth and weak investment, and least pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa where the multiple adverse shocks over the past decade are assumed to dissipate going forward. Potential growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA, and SAR is expected to be broadly steady as slowing population growth is offset by strengthening productivity. The projected declines in potential growth are not inevitable. Many EMDEs could lift potential growth by implementing reforms, with policy priorities varying across regions
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Kasyanenko, Sergiy The Past and Future of Regional Potential Growth: Hopes, Fears, and Realities Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2023
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 6
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049079232
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (77 Seiten)
    Content: Potential growth-the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment-is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth: A Global Database Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2023
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    UID:
    gbv_1743501161
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9411
    Content: Since 2000, there have been three major global slowdowns, with the latest and most pronounced episode triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, many countries have faced major adverse events including natural disasters, wars, and financial crises, all of which can lead to long-lasting harm to productivity. Wars inflict particularly severe damage to productivity, while financial crises also lead to substantial losses, especially accompanied by a rapid build-up of debt. The greater frequency of natural disasters, especially climate disasters, means that they have the largest aggregate impact on productivity, as natural disasters have occurred most often and their frequency has doubled since 2000. Global adverse events can have large sustained negative effects on productivity through dislocating labor, tightening of credit, disrupting value chains, and decreasing innovation. Policies to counter the negative consequences of adverse shocks include accommodative fiscal policies, such as reconstruction spending on resilient infrastructure; transparent governance; efficient use of relief funds; as well as growth-friendly structural reforms. Appropriate policies and regulations concerning finance, construction, and environmental protection can help reduce the frequency of adverse shocks
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Dieppe, Alistair Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    UID:
    gbv_1701141485
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9177
    Content: Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point in advanced economies and 1.1 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies. The slowdown mainly reflected weaker capital accumulation but is also evidence of decelerating productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. Unless countered, these forces are expected to continue and to depress global potential growth further by 0.2 percentage point over the next decade. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse this trend, including comprehensive policy initiatives to lift physical and human capital and to encourage labor force participation by women and older workers
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Kilic Celik, Sinem Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Author information: Kose, M. Ayhan
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  • 9
    UID:
    edocfu_9959377666902883
    Format: 1 online resource (36 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point in advanced economies and 1.1 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies. The slowdown mainly reflected weaker capital accumulation but is also evidence of decelerating productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. Unless countered, these forces are expected to continue and to depress global potential growth further by 0.2 percentage point over the next decade. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse this trend, including comprehensive policy initiatives to lift physical and human capital and to encourage labor force participation by women and older workers.
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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  • 10
    UID:
    edoccha_9959377666902883
    Format: 1 online resource (36 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point in advanced economies and 1.1 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies. The slowdown mainly reflected weaker capital accumulation but is also evidence of decelerating productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. Unless countered, these forces are expected to continue and to depress global potential growth further by 0.2 percentage point over the next decade. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse this trend, including comprehensive policy initiatives to lift physical and human capital and to encourage labor force participation by women and older workers.
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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