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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Finding the Tipping Point : When Sovereign Debt Turns Bad (2010)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246202402883
    Format: 1 online resource (15 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5391
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Fulltext
    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    When Do Sudden Stops Really Hurt? / (2009)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958104864002883
    Format: 1 online resource (20 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper analyzes the drivers and consequences of sudden stops of capital flows. It focuses on the impact of external vulnerability on the depth and length of sudden stop crises. The authors analyze 43 developing and developed countries between 1993 and 2006. They find evidence that external vulnerability not only significantly impacts the probability of a sudden stop crisis, but also prolongs the time it takes for growth to revert to its long-term trend once a sudden stop occurs. Interestingly, external vulnerability does not significantly impact the size of the instantaneous output effect in case of a sudden stop but prompts a cumulative output effect through significantly diminishing the speed of adjustment of output to its trend. This finding implies that countries financing a large part of their absorption externally do not suffer more ferocious output losses in a sudden stop crisis, but take longer to adapt afterward and are hence expected to suffer more protracted crises periods. Compared with previous literature, this paper makes three contributions: (i) it extends the country and time coverage relative to datasets that have previously been used to analyze related topics; (ii) it specifically accounts for time-series autocorrelation; and (iii) it provides an analysis of the adjustment path of economic growth after a sudden stop.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5021
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Fulltext
    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Characterizing business cycles in small economies (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1031662545
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8527
    Content: This paper aims to document a set of stylized facts characterizing business cycle dynamics in smaller economies. The paper uses a large sample of countries spanning 1960-2014 to show that country size is a significant factor affecting countries' volatility, comovement with gross domestic product and real interest rate, and persistence. Specifically, analysis finds that smaller countries (i) tend to have more volatile gross domestic product; (ii) have more volatile, less procyclical, and less persistent investment; (iii) exhibit more volatile trade balance and current account, have more procyclical exports, and thus less countercyclical trade balance; (iv) have more volatile government consumption and more procyclical public revenues and fiscal balance; and (v) possess more procyclical inflation. The effects of country size remain robust even after we control for the level of economic and institutional development, the presence of fiscal rule(s) and fixed exchange rates, and the commodity exporting status
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Hnatkovska, Viktoria Characterizing Business Cycles in Small Economies Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2018
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8527
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Author information: Köhler-Geib, Friederike
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Online Access
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sources of volatility in small economies (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1031662391
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8526
    Content: Do sources of volatility differ by country characteristics such as the level of development, country size, quality of institutions, and presence of restrictions on fiscal policy? This paper sets out to answer this question in a quarterly panel of 48 developed and developing countries for 1960-2015. Using individual country and panel vector autoregressions, the paper shows that factors affecting gross domestic product volatility differ systematically by country size, development level, and whether a country has adopted fiscal rule(s). The role of country size is particularly pronounced in developing countries. The paper shows that small developing countries are more prone to domestic output shocks, while shocks to the world interest rate and real exchange rate are more important in large developing countries. Small countries are also more susceptible to terms of trade shocks. These results suggest that stabilization policies must be designed with these country characteristics in mind
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Hnatkovska, Viktoria Sources of Volatility in Small Economies Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2018
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8526
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Author information: Köhler-Geib, Friederike
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Online Access
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Finding the Tipping Point : When Sovereign Debt Turns Bad (2010)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9958246202402883
    Format: 1 online resource (15 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5391
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    Charité
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Finding the Tipping Point : When Sovereign Debt Turns Bad (2010)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edocfu_9958246202402883
    Format: 1 online resource (15 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5391
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    FU Berlin
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sources of Volatility in Small Economies (2018)
    World Bank, Washington, DC
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1759633232
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Research Working Paper No. 8526
    Content: Do sources of volatility differ by country characteristics such as the level of development, country size, quality of institutions, and presence of restrictions on fiscal policy? This paper sets out to answer this question in a quarterly panel of 48 developed and developing countries for 1960-2015. Using individual country and panel vector autoregressions, the paper shows that factors affecting gross domestic product volatility differ systematically by country size, development level, and whether a country has adopted fiscal rule(s). The role of country size is particularly pronounced in developing countries. The paper shows that small developing countries are more prone to domestic output shocks, while shocks to the world interest rate and real exchange rate are more important in large developing countries. Small countries are also more susceptible to terms of trade shocks. These results suggest that stabilization policies must be designed with these country characteristics in mind
    Note: English
    Language: English
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Stabi Berlin
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Characterizing Business Cycles in Small Economies (2018)
    World Bank, Washington, DC
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1759633224
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Research Working Paper No. 8527
    Content: This paper aims to document a set of stylized facts characterizing business cycle dynamics in smaller economies. The paper uses a large sample of countries spanning 1960-2014 to show that country size is a significant factor affecting countries' volatility, comovement with gross domestic product and real interest rate, and persistence. Specifically, analysis finds that smaller countries (i) tend to have more volatile gross domestic product; (ii) have more volatile, less procyclical, and less persistent investment; (iii) exhibit more volatile trade balance and current account, have more procyclical exports, and thus less countercyclical trade balance; (iv) have more volatile government consumption and more procyclical public revenues and fiscal balance; and (v) possess more procyclical inflation. The effects of country size remain robust even after we control for the level of economic and institutional development, the presence of fiscal rule(s) and fixed exchange rates, and the commodity exporting status
    Note: English
    Language: English
    URL: kostenfrei
    URL: kostenfrei
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Stabi Berlin
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    "Finding the Tipping Point -- When Sovereign Debt Turns Bad" (2012)
    [Erscheinungsort nicht ermittelbar]
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_797524371
    Format: Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Research working paper WPS 5391
    Content: Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP.
    Note: English
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    URL: kostenfrei
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Fulltext
    Stabi Berlin
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    When Do Sudden Stops Really Hurt? / (2009)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    edoccha_9958104864002883
    Format: 1 online resource (20 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper analyzes the drivers and consequences of sudden stops of capital flows. It focuses on the impact of external vulnerability on the depth and length of sudden stop crises. The authors analyze 43 developing and developed countries between 1993 and 2006. They find evidence that external vulnerability not only significantly impacts the probability of a sudden stop crisis, but also prolongs the time it takes for growth to revert to its long-term trend once a sudden stop occurs. Interestingly, external vulnerability does not significantly impact the size of the instantaneous output effect in case of a sudden stop but prompts a cumulative output effect through significantly diminishing the speed of adjustment of output to its trend. This finding implies that countries financing a large part of their absorption externally do not suffer more ferocious output losses in a sudden stop crisis, but take longer to adapt afterward and are hence expected to suffer more protracted crises periods. Compared with previous literature, this paper makes three contributions: (i) it extends the country and time coverage relative to datasets that have previously been used to analyze related topics; (ii) it specifically accounts for time-series autocorrelation; and (iii) it provides an analysis of the adjustment path of economic growth after a sudden stop.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5021
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    Charité
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