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  • 1
    UID:
    almafu_9958246457202883
    Format: 1 online resource (28 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Middle class values have long been perceived as drivers of social cohesion and growth. This paper investigates the relation between class (measured by position in the income distribution), values, and political orientations using comparable values surveys for six Latin American countries. The analysis finds that both a continuous measure of income and categorical measures of income-based class are robustly associated with values. Both income and class tend to display a similar association to values and political orientations as education, although differences persist in some important dimensions. Overall, there is no strong evidence of any "middle class particularism": values appear to gradually shift with income, and middle class values are between the ones of poorer and richer classes. If any, the only peculiarity of middle class values is moderation. The analysis also finds changes in values across countries to be of much larger magnitude than the ones dictated by income, education, and individual characteristics, suggesting that individual values vary primarily within bounds dictated by each society.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    UID:
    almafu_9958143906802883
    Format: 1 online resource (35 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Growth is an important channel for poverty reduction. Policies to make growth more "inclusive" have permeated the development debate and "pro-poor growth" has been the subject of a wide range of papers in the literature, including issues related to measurement, modeling, and policy. However, the analytical and particularly empirical literature to support the idea that equity-enhancing policies have a positive effect on growth is more scarce and limited, especially on the potential policy links. This paper proposes a simple conceptual framework to identify the main elements that contribute to the income generation of households, building on the notion that growth can be seen partly as the aggregate outcome of the income generation capacity of households. The framework relies on an asset-based approach, and offers insights on how a more equitable distribution of assets and opportunities for their productive use can feed back into higher growth in the long term. Using this framework, the paper links the World Bank's twin goals to specific policy channels that have direct impacts on the income generation capacity of households, with a particular focus on households at the bottom of the income distribution. The four key policy channels include (i) implementing equitable, efficient and sustainable fiscal policy and macroeconomic management, (ii) strengthening fair and transparent institutions capable of delivering quality basic services, (iii) enabling well-functioning markets, and (iv) establishing adequate risk management instruments at the macro and household levels.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    UID:
    almafu_9958246454502883
    Format: 1 online resource (28 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Measurement of the middle class has recently come to the center of policy debate in middle-income countries as they search for the potential engines of growth and good governance. This debate assumes, first, that there is a meaningful definition of class, and second, that thresholds that define relatively homogeneous groups in terms of pre-determined sociological characteristics can be found empirically. This paper aims at proposing a view of the middle class based on vulnerability to poverty. Following this approach the paper exploits panel data to determine the amount of comparable income - associated with a low probability of falling into poverty - which could define the lower bound of the middle class. The paper looks at absolute thresholds, challenging the view that people above the poverty line are actually part of the middle class. The estimated lower threshold is used in cross-section surveys to quantify the size and the evolution of middle classes in Chile, Mexico, and Peru over the past two decades. The first relevant feature relates to the fact that the proposed thresholds lie around the 60th percentile of the distribution. The evidence also shows that the middle class has increased significantly in all three countries, suggesting that a higher number of households face lower probabilities of falling into poverty than they did in the 1990s. There is an important group of people, however, which cannot be defined as middle class from this perspective, but are not eligible for poverty programs according to traditional definitions of poverty.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    UID:
    almafu_9958143917402883
    Format: 1 online resource (48 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Since the early 2000s, after a long period of wide and persistent gaps, Latin America has experienced a steady decline in income inequality. This paper presents evidence of a trend reversal in labor income inequality, which is considered the main factor behind such a decline in income inequality across the region. The analysis shows that, while labor income inequality increased during the 1990s, with heterogeneous experiences across countries, it fell in a synchronized way across countries beginning in the early 2000s. This systematic decline was supported by an expansion in real hourly earnings among the bottom of the wage distribution and, to a lesser extent, the middle part of the earnings distribution, thus reducing upper and lower tail inequality. This trend reversal is explained by a lower dispersion of earnings among workers with observable different attributes and by a much less extensive dispersion of residual labor inequality. Regarding the earnings differentials among workers with observable different attributes, the analysis concludes that the decline in labor inequality in Latin America has been closely associated with a reduction in the college/primary education premium and in the urban-rural earnings gap, coupled with a steady drop in the high school/primary education premium, which accelerated markedly since the 2000s, as well as a reduction in the experience premium across all age groups.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
    UID:
    almafu_9958246390702883
    Format: 1 online resource (18 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Inequality in Latin America unambiguously declined in the 2000s. The Gini coefficient fell in 16 of the 17 countries where there are comparable data, and the change was statistically significant for all of them. Existing studies point to two main explanations for the decline in inequality: a reduction in hourly labor income inequality, and more robust and progressive government transfers. Available evidence suggests that it is the skill premium-or, more precisely, the returns to primary, secondary, and tertiary education vs. no schooling or incomplete primary schooling-that drives the decline in hourly labor income inequality. The causes behind the decline in returns to schooling, however, have not been unambiguously established. Some studies find that returns fell because of an increase in the supply of workers with more educational attainment; others, because of a shift in demand away from skilled labor.
    Language: English
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  • 6
    UID:
    almafu_9958246437902883
    Format: 1 online resource (44 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Teenage pregnancy has been a cause of concern for policy makers because it is associated with a complex and often adverse social context for women. It is seen as the cause of lower social and economic achievement for mothers and their children, and as the potential determinant of inter-generational poverty traps. However, the question of whether pregnancy-and the subsequent rearing of a child-is actually the trigger of poverty, higher dependence on social welfare and/ or other undesirable social and economic consequences has not been studied in developing countries with enough rigor to establish a causal relation. This paper follows a methodology previously applied in the United States, using Mexican data from the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, to exploit information about miscarriages as an instrument to identify the long-term consequences of early child bearing. Thus, the paper takes the advantage of a natural experiment: it compares the outcomes of women who became pregnant in adolescence, and gave birth, to outcomes of women who became pregnant in adolescence and miscarried. This approach only allows for estimating the costs of adolescent childbearing for teenagers in a risk group, that is, teenagers who are likely to experience a pregnancy. The results are consistent with findings in the United States, suggesting that, contrary to popular thinking, adolescent childbearing does not hamper significantly the lifelong opportunities of the young mothers. Actually, women who gave birth during their adolescence have on average 0.34 more years of education, and are 21 percentage points more likely to be employed, compared with their counterparts who miscarried. The results also suggest, however, greater dependence on social welfare among women who gave birth during adolescence: their social assistance income is 36 percent higher, and they are more likely to participate in social programs, especially the conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades.
    Language: English
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  • 7
    UID:
    almafu_9958246420602883
    Format: 1 online resource (28 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources. In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and institutional factors. Their relative importance depends on the country.
    Language: English
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  • 8
    UID:
    almafu_9958143941602883
    Format: 1 online resource (25 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Wage inequality has declined in Mexico since 2000. Using data from Mexican labor surveys for the period between 2000 and 2014, this paper investigates whether the decline was driven by wages declining more sharply for younger or older workers. The analysis finds that the wages of older workers declined and the decline was more pronounced in the older cohort. This would seem to support the hypothesis that older workers' skills have become obsolete.
    Language: English
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  • 9
    UID:
    almafu_9958246220402883
    Format: 1 online resource (31 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The 2015 United Nations resolution on Financing for Development stresses the importance of effective resource mobilization and use of domestic resources to pursue sustainable development. The first Sustainable Development Goal is to eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere by 2030. This paper proposes an accounting exercise to assess whether it is feasible for countries to eliminate poverty using only domestic resources, in other words, by mere redistribution. Moreover, the paper argues that the concentration of resources in the hands of fewer individuals in the society may hinder the feasibility of implementing effective fiscal policies (from the revenue side and the social spending side) to reduce poverty. The paper provides a new tool to assess the capacity of countries to eliminate poverty through redistribution, and a new tool to approximate the concentration of political influence in a country. The new methodologies are applied to the most recent surveys available for more than 120 developing countries. The findings show that countries with the same fiscal capacity to mobilize resources for poverty eradication differ widely in the political feasibility of such redistribution policies.
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 10
    UID:
    almafu_9959269262402883
    Format: 1 online resource (44 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper exploits a novel municipal-level data set to explore patterns of convergence in income and poverty in Mexico during 1992-2014. The paper finds that, despite a context of overall stagnant economic growth and poverty reduction, there is evidence of income and poverty convergence at the municipal level. The findings suggest that these convergence processes stem from a combination of considerable positive performance among the poorest municipalities and stagnant and deteriorating performance among richer municipalities. Re distributive programs, such as federal transfers to poor municipalities and cash transfers to poor households, seem to have played an important role in driving these results by bolstering income growth among the poorest municipalities, while also inducing progressive changes in the distribution of income.
    Language: English
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