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  • 1
    UID:
    b3kat_BV040618843
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausgabe World Bank E-Library Archive Sonstige Standardnummer des Gesamttitels: 041181-4
    Content: This paper examines the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. The paper analyzes the effect of a variety of prior assumptions on the inference concerning model size, posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors, and predictive performance. The analysis illustrates these issues in the context of cross-country growth regressions using three datasets with 41 to 67 potential drivers of growth and 72 to 93 observations. The results favor particular prior structures for use in this and related contexts
    Note: Weitere Ausgabe: Steel, Mark F.J : On The Effect of Prior Assumptions In Bayesian Model Averaging With Applications To Growth Regression
    Additional Edition: Reproduktion von Steel, Mark F.J. On The Effect of Prior Assumptions In Bayesian Model Averaging With Applications To Growth Regression 2007
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    UID:
    b3kat_BV040618668
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (17 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausgabe World Bank E-Library Archive Sonstige Standardnummer des Gesamttitels: 041181-4
    Content: The authors present a measure of jointness to explore dependence among regressors in the context of Bayesian model selection. The jointness measure they propose equals the posterior odds ratio between those models that include a set of variables and the models that only include proper subsets. They show its application in cross-country growth regressions using two data-sets from the model-averaging growth literature
    Additional Edition: Reproduktion von Ley, Eduardo Jointness In Bayesian Variable Selection With Applications To Growth Regression 2006
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048264654
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Content: This paper assesses whether the level of taxation of motor fuel is broadly appropriate in a group of countries (OECD, BRICs and South Africa) accounting for more than 80 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis deals with emissions from oil combustion in transport, which account for about 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions. In the benchmark specification, six countries (responsible, in turn, for more than 40 percent of worldwide motor-fuel greenhouse gas world emissions) would be undertaxing motor fuel. The authors evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the values of the elasticities and externalities that used in the analysis. They find that varying the values of these parameters (within the level of uncertainty reasonably associated with them) significantly affects the results. This implies that, while informative, the results must be taken as indicative. Further analysis for a particular country must rely on a well-informed choice for the values of the country-specific parameters
    Additional Edition: Ley, Eduardo The Taxation of Motor Fuel
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048265170
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Content: This paper examines the issue of variable selection in linear regression modeling, where there is a potentially large amount of possible covariates and economic theory offers insufficient guidance on how to select the appropriate subset. In this context, Bayesian Model Averaging presents a formal Bayesian solution to dealing with model uncertainty. The main interest here is the effect of the prior on the results, such as posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and predictive performance. The authors combine a Binomial-Beta prior on model size with a g-prior on the coefficients of each model. In addition, they assign a hyperprior to g, as the choice of g has been found to have a large impact on the results. For the prior on g, they examine the Zellner-Siow prior and a class of Beta shrinkage priors, which covers most choices in the recent literature. The authors propose a benchmark Beta prior, inspired by earlier findings with fixed g, and show it leads to consistent model selection. Inference is conducted through a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler over model space and g. The authors examine the performance of the various priors in the context of simulated and real data. For the latter, they consider two important applications in economics, namely cross-country growth regression and returns to schooling. Recommendations for applied users are provided
    Additional Edition: Ley, Eduardo Mixtures of g-Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging with Economic Application
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048265739
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Content: This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation
    Additional Edition: Ley, Eduardo Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 6
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049073912
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource
    Edition: Online-Ausg Also available in print
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 4709
    Content: "This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is dropped by modeling their respective empirical distribution directly, which makes it possible to quantify asymetries and thick tails. Third, the use of fiscal reaction functions is avoided by focusing attention on debt-stabilizing balances. "--World Bank web site
    Note: Includes bibliographical references , Title from PDF file as viewed on 5/18/2009
    Additional Edition: Frank, Nathaniel Refinements to the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability analysis
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048265566
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Content: "Getting the prices right" is a good starting point but is not sufficient for achieving environmentally efficient outcomes. Other policy interventions are often necessary to complement pricing policies. Moreover, when pricing is not at all feasible, regulatory and command-and-control policies must be used instead. This paper focuses on three interrelated themes at the core of the pricing problem. First, there is the incorporation of non-marketed activities with environmental consequences into aggregate measures of economic performance: the so-called "green-GDP." Second, there is the problem regarding the reliable estimation of the valuation of the shadow prices that properly reflect environmental externalities. Third, there is the issue of full-cost pricing that requires the pricing of environmental externalities for guiding both individual and public decision-making
    Additional Edition: Ngoc Bich Tran Green Prices
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048266209
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Content: Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift
    Additional Edition: Onder, Harun Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    UID:
    gbv_845823825
    Format: Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1475505302 , 9781475505306
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/182
    Content: It is generally acknowledged that the government’s output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution, adopted by national accounts systems, is to equate output to input costs. However, several studies estimate significant inefficiencies in government activities (i.e., same output could be achieved with less inputs), implying that inputs are not a good approximation for outputs. If taken seriously, the next logical step is to purge from GDP the fraction of government inputs that is wasted. As differences in the quality of the public sector have a direct impact on citizens’ effective consumption of public and private goods and services, we must take them into account when computing a measure of living standards. We illustrate such a correction computing corrected per capita GDPs on the basis of two studies that estimate efficiency scores for several dimensions of government activities. We show that the correction could be significant, and rankings of living standards could be re-ordered as a result
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Grigoli, Francesco Quality of Government and Living Standards: Adjusting for the Efficiency of Public Spending Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012 ISBN 9781475505306
    Language: English
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  • 10
    UID:
    b3kat_BV049074561
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (17 Seiten))
    Edition: Online-Ausg
    Content: The authors present a measure of jointness to explore dependence among regressors in the context of Bayesian model selection. The jointness measure they propose equals the posterior odds ratio between those models that include a set of variables and the models that only include proper subsets. They show its application in cross-country growth regressions using two data-sets from the model-averaging growth literature
    Additional Edition: Ley, Eduardo Jointness In Bayesian Variable Selection With Applications To Growth Regression
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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