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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? : The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246564702883
    Format: 1 online resource (46 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013, with a particular focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing policies in the United States and other high-income countries. The paper finds evidence for potential transmission of quantitative easing along observable liquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels. Moreover, quantitative easing had an additional effect over and above these observable channels, which the paper argues cannot be attributed to either market expectations or changes in the structural relationships between inflows and observable fundamentals. The baseline estimates place the lower bound of the effect of quantitative easing at around 5 percent of gross inflows (for the average developing economy), which suggests that of the 62 percent increase in inflows during 2009-13 related to changing global monetary conditions, at least 13 percent of this was attributable to quantitative easing. The paper also finds evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows; portfolio (especially bond) flows tend to be more sensitive than foreign direct investment to our measured effects from quantitative easing. Finally, the paper performs simulations that explore the potential effects of the withdrawal of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6820
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Export Diversification in a Transitioning Economy : The Case of Syria (2011)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246463202883
    Format: 1 online resource (37 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: How does the process of export diversification play out in a transitioning economy, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This paper examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria-an economy transitioning from both economic centralization and resource dependence-to liberalize its trade in 2001. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further consolidation of diversification gains may require continued policy reform along the lines of strengthening Syria's weak institutional and business environment.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5811
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Learning from Financial Crises / (2014)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246562902883
    Format: 1 online resource (45 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with greater crisis experience reduced their lending significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include alternative measures of crisis experience, additional controls, and decompositions into different types of crises. The question of learning is also examined from the perspective of other measures of bank performance.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6838
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Institutional and Structural Determinants of Investment Worldwide / (2013)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246586802883
    Format: 1 online resource (34 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper considers institutional and structural factors associated with investment activity in a panel of up to 129 developed and developing countries. It introduces these factors to a standard neoclassical investment function for open economies, and find that financial development and institutional quality are reasonably robust determinants of cross-country capital formation, with latter displaying more stability in the sign and significance of its coefficient. Indeed, when endogeneity concerns are addressed more explicitly using external instruments, and both interactions and subsamples are considered, institutional quality tends to survive as the causal determinant of investment.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6591
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Channels of Transmission of the 2007/09 Global Crisis to International Bank Lending in Developing Countries / (2012)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246443902883
    Format: 1 online resource (31 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: During a financial crisis, credit provision by international banks may be stymied by three distinct, but related, channels: changes in lending standards as a result of increased economic uncertainty, changes in funding availability from interbank liquidity markets, and changes in solvency due to effects on bank balance sheets. This paper illuminates the manner by which each of these channels independently operated to affect developed-country bank lending in developing countries during the global financial crisis of 2007/09. It quantifies how changes in banks' uncertainty about the value of their asset holdings, access to interbank liquidity, and internal balance sheet considerations altered their supply of credit in the run-up, during, and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, both in terms of their relative magnitudes, as well as the sensitivity of these magnitudes to the crisis.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6011
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages / (2014)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246548302883
    Format: 1 online resource (44 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Aging of populations and convergence between developed and developing countries in per capita incomes are shaping the evolution of saving, investment, capital flows, and, in particular, the cost of capital. When considering these trends, the existing literature argues for either continued, low interest rates, or sharply rising ones. This paper presents an alternative view: modest rises in interest rates, which result from a combination of increases in the global weight of high-saving developing economies (limiting declines in global saving), and decelerations in the rate of growth in developing countries (constraining upward pressure in global investment). For the majority of countries, slowing capital demand resulting from decelerating growth, coupled with structural changes that influence its attractiveness as a destination for capital, moderate increases in interest rates. Changes in key assumptions do not alter this view. More specifically, the small rise in interest rates persists even in a scenario where growth in developing countries decelerates more slowly, or when elasticities governing the behavior of saving and investment are varied.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6989
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Trade Openness Reduces Growth Volatility When Countries Are Well Diversified / (2010)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246231002883
    Format: 1 online resource (38 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper addresses the mechanisms by which trade openness affects growth volatility. Using a diverse set of export diversification indicators, it presents strong evidence pointing to an important role for export diversification in reducing the effect of trade openness on growth volatility. The authors also identify positive thresholds for product diversification at which the effect of openness on volatility changes sign. The effect is shown to be positive only for a minority of countries with highly concentrated export baskets. This result is shown to be robust to both explicit accounting for endogeneity as well as the inclusion of a host of additional controls.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5222
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Institutional Quality Mediates the Effect of Human Capital on Economic Performance / (2014)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246567202883
    Format: 1 online resource (37 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper considers the relationship between institutional quality, educational outcomes, and economic performance. More specifically, it seeks to establish the linkages by which government effectiveness affects per capita income, via its mediating effect on human capital formation. The empirical approach adopts a two-stage strategy that estimates national-level educational production functions that include government effectiveness as a covariate, and then uses these estimates as instruments for human capital in cross-country regressions of per capita income. The results identify a significant and positive effect of human capital on per capita income levels, and partially resolves the inconsistency between macro- and micro-level studies of the effect of human capital on income. The results also remain robust to alternative specifications, extension to a panel setting, subsamples of the data, and fully endogenous institutions.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6792
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Growth Poles and Multipolarity / (2011)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246472402883
    Format: 1 online resource (40 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper develops an empirical measure of growth poles and uses it to examine the phenomenon of multipolarity. The authors formally define several alternative measures, provide theoretical justifications for these measures, and compute polarity values for nation states in the global economy. The calculations suggest that China, Western Europe, and the United States have been important growth poles over the broad course of world history, and in modern economic history the United States, Japan, Germany, and China have had prominent periods of growth polarity. The paper goes on to analyze the economic and institutional determinants, both at the proximate and fundamental level, that underlie this measure of polarity, as well as compute measures of dispersion in growth polarity shares for the major growth poles.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5712
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries : Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246563702883
    Format: 1 online resource (51 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: As the recovery in high-income countries firms amid a gradual withdrawal of extraordinary monetary stimulus, developing countries can expect stronger demand for their exports as global trade regains momentum, but also rising interest rates and potentially weaker capital inflows. This paper assesses the implications of a normalization of policy and activity in high-income countries for financial flows and crisis risks in developing countries. In the most likely scenario, a relatively orderly process of normalization would imply a slowdown in capital inflows amounting to 0.6 percent of developing-country GDP between 2013 and 2016, driven in particular by weaker portfolio investments. However, the risk of more abrupt adjustments remains significant, especially if increased market volatility accompanies the unwinding of unprecedented central bank interventions. According to simulations, abrupt changes in market expectations, resulting in global bond yields increasing by 100 to 200 basis points within a couple of quarters, could lead to a sharp reduction in capital inflows to developing countries by between 50 and 80 percent for several months. Evidence from past banking crises suggests that countries having seen a substantial expansion of domestic credit over the past five years, deteriorating current account balances, high levels of foreign and short-term debt, and over-valued exchange rates could be more at risk in current circumstances. Countries with adequate policy buffers and investor confidence may be able to rely on market mechanisms and countercyclical macroeconomic and prudential policies to deal with a retrenchment of foreign capital. In other cases, where the scope for maneuver is more limited, countries may be forced to tighten fiscal and monetary policy to reduce financing needs and attract additional inflows.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6830
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
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