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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia. (2015)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958143945502883
    Format: 1 online resource (23 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7501
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Population Aging and Households' Saving in the Russian Federation / (2015)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958143951302883
    Format: 1 online resource (46 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Using household data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper assesses how aging affects saving. To overcome a systematic bias against the life-cycle hypothesis of survey data, the paper estimates how the age profile of saving changes when the micro data are corrected to account for the contribution to pensions (as additional saving) and receipt of benefits from pensions (as dissaving). With these corrections, the Russian data support the life-cycle hypothesis. A small decline in the aggregate saving rate, because of aging, can thus be expected. However, since aggregate saving rates result from a combination of age and cohort effects, this decline may not be significant. When extrapolating the rising trends of the cohort effect, the fact that younger generations are earning and saving more than older generation at the same age, the projection shows a growing aggregate saving rate. The changes in saving of future cohorts, for example because of changes in the growth rate of the economy, can affect the aggregate saving rate even more than aging.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7443
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    Fulltext
    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Distributional Impacts of Taxes and Benefits in Post-Soviet Countries / (2021)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9960070279502883
    Format: 1 online resource (21 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This study compares the distributional impacts of the main tax and social spending programs in eight countries of the former Soviet Union (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan, and Ukraine) by applying a state-of-the-art fiscal incidence analysis based on the Commitment to Equity methodology. The region is highly interesting due to a unique combination of strong elements of path dependency (socialist legacies) with radical liberalization and welfare state retrenchment. The study examines the actual outcomes in terms of inequality and poverty and assesses the extent to which these outcomes can be attributed to various welfare state policies in these countries. It examines the extent to which taxes and social spending are progressive (whether the average transfer declines with income) and equalizing (whether they reduce inequality). In contrast to the majority of fiscal incidence studies, which are typically limited to the assessment of the impact of direct taxes and transfers, the study estimates the cumulative impact of the tax-benefit system as a whole, including direct and indirect taxes, cash transfers, and transfers in kind such as public education and health care.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9795
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    Fulltext
    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    RUSMOD - A Tool for Distributional Analysis in the Russian Federation / (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959137488202883
    Format: 1 online resource (48 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The purpose of this paper is to introduce applications of RUSMOD - a microsimulation model for fiscal incidence analysis in the Russian Federation. RUSMOD combines household survey micro-data and fiscal policy rules to simulate the Russian tax-benefit system: the size and distribution of taxes collected and benefits paid, and the impact of the system on different population groups. Microsimulation models, such as RUSMOD, are habitually used in developed countries, and can be versatile budgetary policy tools. Using this model, the current tax-benefit system in Russia is examined. The impact of the system is measured across the income distribution, age groups, family types, localities, as well as across time. One of the applications of RUSMOD this paper aims to assess is the role of the tax-benefit system in explaining the incidence of informal employment in Russia. The paper investigates whether the existing system creates disincentives for formalization in terms of reducing disposable incomes and increasing poverty and inequality, and whether a hypothetical tax reform would be able to reduce the opportunity costs of formalization for informal workers, improve distributional outcomes, and increase fiscal revenues.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8994
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Tobacco Taxation Incidence : Evidence From The Russian Federation (2018)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958990377102883
    Format: 1 online resource (27 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Despite the well-known positive effects of tobacco taxes on health outcomes, policy makers avoid relying on such taxes because of their possible regressive impact. Using an extended cost-benefit analysis to estimate the distributional effect of cigarettes in the Russian Federation, this paper finds that the long-run impact may in fact be progressive. The methodology applied incorporates the negative price effect caused by an increase in tobacco taxes, combined with a presumed future reduction in medical expenditures and a rise in working years caused by a reduction in the rate of smoking among the population. The analysis includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios, based on information taken from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-Higher School of Economics for 2010-16. One contribution is the quantification of impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. Overall, cigarette taxes exert a positive long-term effect on household incomes, although the magnitude depends on the structure of the conditional price elasticity. If the population is more responsive to tobacco price changes, then it would experience greater gains from the health and extended work-life benefits.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8626
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fiscal Incidence in Moldova : A Commitment to Equity Analysis (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959137486602883
    Format: 1 online resource (48 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper uses methods developed by the Commitment to Equity Institute and data from the Household Budget Survey to assess the effects of government taxation and social spending on poverty and inequality in Moldova. The paper presents the first detailed distributional analysis of the tax and expenditure sides of the fiscal system, examining in particular the contribution of different taxes and transfers to poverty and inequality reduction in Moldova, as well as the cost-effectiveness of different taxes and transfers in achieving these poverty and inequality reduction goals. The analysis finds that the tax-benefit system in Moldova is quite pro-poor and has a significant effect on poverty and inequality, with the poverty reduction effect being stronger for lower poverty thresholds. Pensions provide much of the poverty-reducing effect, which is not surprising, given that in an aging society like Moldova, pensions are the main income source for many households. Direct transfers are also quite effective in reducing poverty and are also efficient, providing a relatively high degree of poverty reduction per dollar allocated to these programs, but their overall effect on poverty is muted by their small budgetary allocations.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9010
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Informal Employment and Worker's Well-Being in the Russian Federation / (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959137488702883
    Format: 1 online resource (69 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper finds that informal workers are more likely to have inferior work conditions, but do not necessarily report worse subjective well-being. Starting with lower wages, but also with less regularity of hours and paid vacation, informal workers have higher incidence of envelope payments than formal workers but not of hazardous or unstable jobs. After controlling for work conditions, informal workers do not have statistically significantly lower job satisfaction and under no specification are informal workers more likely to self-assess worse health than formal workers. Finally, there is some association between informal employment and household poverty and life satisfaction, but it is not robust to changes in econometric specification or sample composition. The authors conclude that the evidence indicates that informal employment in the Russian Federation is mostly a problem of labor productivity and the design of the social protection system, but worsening wages and some association between informality and household poverty indicate that informality may also be a social equity problem.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8989
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fiscal Incidence in Ukraine : A Commitment to Equity Analysis (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959045271402883
    Format: 1 online resource (49 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The paper employs the Commitment to Equity framework to present a first attempt at a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis for Ukraine, encompassing the revenue and expenditures components of the fiscal system, including direct and indirect taxes, as well as direct, indirect, and in-kind transfers. The fiscal system in Ukraine has high redistribution effects, decreasing the Gini inequality index by 21 percentage points, and the official measure of poverty incidence by 27.6 percentage points (considering all fiscal interventions including in-kind transfers). As in many other countries in the region, pensions are the main contributor to the redistribution effect of fiscal policy. However, Ukraine stands out due to the relatively high equalizing effect of direct transfers. Fiscal policy in Ukraine is pro-poor, with the lowest income decile benefiting the most. Overall, 60 percent of the population of Ukraine are net recipients from the fiscal system, the main categories of recipients being households with two or more children, single-parent households, and retirees.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8765
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Poverty, Vulnerability, and Household Coping Strategies During the 2015-16 Recession in Belarus / (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959137487302883
    Format: 1 online resource (49 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper examines the impact of the recent recession in Belarus on poverty and broader measures of household welfare and compares the recent recession episode to previous economic crises in Belarus. The paper constructs a measure of vulnerability to poverty, based on an estimated probability of falling below the national poverty threshold not exceeding 10 percent, which is estimated for each year of the household survey data between 2014 and 2017. The analysis finds that the recession of 2014-16 was qualitatively different from earlier recent crisis episodes (2008-09 and 2010-11) in that it affected low-income households to a much greater extent, and the negative welfare effects lingered. The paper also documents that although the recession did not result in a substantial increase in absolute poverty by the official definition, it led to a considerable increase in the share of households that are vulnerable to poverty. The greater degree of vulnerability is also evident from the growing share of the population that faced a risk of poverty within a year (going in and out of poverty). Household types for which the impact of the recession was most pronounced are households with multiple children, single-parent households, residents of rural areas, as well as those who were not employed, partly employed, or low-skilled employees. Coping strategies that were employed by the population were largely related to reducing expenditures and, among vulnerable households, food expenditures in particular, as well as drawing down on their savings.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9003
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Moldova Poverty and Shared Prosperity Update 2018 (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048271643
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Content: This note provides an update of recent poverty and shared prosperity dynamics, and some of the underlying drivers, as well as introducing the new international poverty thresholds that are currently in use. The purpose of the update is to take advantage of the release of Household Budget Survey (HBS) data for the 2016 survey round. The previous poverty and shared prosperity update, release in 2017, updated poverty and shared prosperity trends up to 2015. The first section discusses the overall progress poverty reduction and shared prosperity up to 2016 - the latest available household budget survey data. Notably, the poverty dynamics are presented, for the first time, using PPP values based on the 2011 ICP exercise, and using the newly adopted Income Class poverty thresholds of USD 3.3/day and USD 5.5/day. For the purposes of this note, we focus on the USD 5.5/day threshold, but the section also presents a comparative analysis of poverty dynamics based on old and new thresholds. Because this is the first time when internationally-comparable poverty and shared prosperity statistics for Moldova are presented based on the ICP 2011 PPP conversion factors, and relying on newly defined income-group based thresholds, the introduction has a brief discussion of the reasons behind the change in the World Bank's poverty methodology used for global poverty monitoring, and the implications of this change for poverty trends over time and for the absolute levels of poverty reported in Moldova. Section 2 discussed the major drivers of shared prosperity during the 2011-2016 period. Section 3 examines the profile of poor and vulnerable populations, their asset endowments, and changes in this profile in recent years
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/30468
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    MPI Bildungsforschung
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