Kooperativer Bibliotheksverbund

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (90 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: The author investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade flows using a comprehensive database of PTAs in force and a detailed matrix of world trade. He shows that total trade between PTA partners is a poor proxy for preferential trade (trade in tariff lines where preferences are likely to matter): while the former amounted to one-third of global trade in 2000-02, the latter was between one-sixth and one-tenth of world trade. His gravity model estimates indicate that using total rather than preferential trade to assess the impact of PTAs leads to a significant downward bias in the PTA coefficient. The author finds that product exclusions and long phase-in periods significantly limit preferential trade, and their removal could more than double trade in tariff lines above 3 percent of most-favored-nation (MFN) duties. He also shows that the effects of PTAs on trade vary by type of agreement and are increasing in the incomes of PTA partners.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4038

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (58 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: This paper quantifies the likely benefits of trade and investment liberalization in a small, poor, open economy, using the accession of Honduras to the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement as a case study. The results show that bilateral trade liberalization with the United States is likely to have almost no effect on welfare in Honduras, while the reciprocal removal of protection vis-a-vis the rest of Central America would lead to significantly larger gains. Potential gains from increased net foreign direct investment inflows overwhelm those expected from trade reform alone, particularly if the new foreign direct investment generates productivity spillovers. However, if it is to replace Honduran investment rather than complement domestic capital formation, growth performance is unlikely to improve and may even suffer. The paper's results identify several areas for policy attention by Honduran policy makers to make the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement more development-friendly. These include carefully considering the budgetary implications of trade reform, widening social safety nets to counter the trends toward increasing income inequality, and sequencing the reforms to ensure a close alignment of Honduras' comparative advantage on the regional and global markets.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4537

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (66 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: The author investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on the net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of member countries using a comprehensive database of PTAs in a panel setting. He finds that PTA membership is associated with a positive change in net FDI inflows, and the FDI gains are increasing in the market size of the PTA partners and their proximity to the host country. The author identifies several different channels through which preferential trade liberalization may affect FDI, and confirms that both threshold effects (signing the agreement) and market size effects (joining a larger and faster-growing common market) are important determinants of net FDI inflows, although the latter seem to dominate. The estimated relationship is largely driven by North-South PTAs, and is most pronounced in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the period when the majority of "deep integration" PTAs had been advanced.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4065

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (29 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: Econometric analysis has established a negative relationship between labor supply and remittances in Jamaica. The authors incorporate this ex-post evidence in a general equilibrium model to investigate economywide effects of increased remittance inflows. In this model, remittances reduce labor force participation by increasing the reservation wages of recipients. This exacerbates the real exchange rate appreciation, hurting Jamaica's export base and small manufacturing import-competing sector. Within the narrow margins of maneuver of a highly indebted government, the authors show that a revenue-neutral policy response of a simultaneous reduction in payroll taxes and increase in sales taxes can effectively counteract these potentially negative effects of remittances.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4143

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (22 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: This paper summarizes the policy lessons from applications of the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS) model to two low income countries: Ghana and Honduras. Results show that costs of MDGs achievement could reach 10-13 percent of GDP by 2015, although, given the observed low productivity in the provision of social services, significant savings may be realized by improving efficiency. Sources of financing also matter: foreign aid inflows can reduce international competitiveness through real exchange appreciation, while domestic financing can crowd out the private sector and slow poverty reduction. Spending a large share of a fixed budget on growth-enhancing infrastructure may mean sacrificing some human development, even if higher growth is usually associated with lower costs of social services. The pursuit of MDGs increases demand for skills: while this encourages higher educational attainments, in the short term this could lead to increased income inequality and a lower poverty elasticity of growth.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4383

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (33 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per-capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class-a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analyzing global disparities by taking into account - as the GIDD does - income dynamics between and within countries.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4392

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (190 pages)

Edition: 1st ed.

ISBN: 1-4648-1370-1

Series Statement: World Bank e-Library.

Content: Remarkably, a small fraction of firms account for most of the job and output creation in high-income and developing countries alike. Does this imply that the path to enabling more economic dynamism lies in selectively targeting high-potential firms? Or would pursuing broad-based reforms that minimize distortions be more effective? Inspired by these questions, this book presents new evidence on the incidence, characteristics, and drivers of high-growth firms based on in-depth studies of firm dynamics in Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, Tunisia, and Turkey. Its findings reveal that high-growth firms are not only powerful engines of job and output growth but also create positive spillovers for other businesses along the value chain. At the same time, the book debunks several myths about policies to support firm dynamism that focus on outward characteristics, such as firm size, sector, location, or past performance. Its findings show that most firms struggle to sustain rapid rates of expansion and that the relationship between high growth and productivity is often weak. Consequently, the book calls for a shift toward policies that improve the quality of firm growth by supporting innovation, managerial skills, and firms' ability to leverage global linkages and agglomeration. To help policy makers structure policies that support firm growth, the book proposes a new ABC framework of growth entrepreneurship: improving Allocative efficiency, encouraging Business-to-business spillovers, and strengthening firm Capabilities. This book is the third volume of the World Bank Productivity Project, which seeks to bring frontier thinking on the measurement and determinants of productivity to global policy makers. 'Policy makers often get carried away by the disproportionate contributions of high-growth firms to job and output growth and commit to pursuing policies targeting the potential 'stars'. This book separates fact from fiction underpinning such interventions through a comprehensive analysis of high-growth firms across a range of developing countries, making a compelling argument that public policy to pick prospective winners is neither possible nor desirable. Policy makers would be wise to consult its arguments and policy advice when designing the next generation of policies to support the growth of firms'. William R. Kerr Professor of Business Administration, Harvard University; author of The Gift of Global Talent: How Migration Shapes Business, Economy and Society 'How to ignite and sustain high firm growth has eluded both economic analysis and thought leaders in policy and business. Through its meticulous and thoughtful analysis, this important new book provides a tractable framework to guide policy to harness the growth and productivity potential of firms in the developing-country context'.David AudretschDistinguished Professor and Director of the Institute for Development Strategies, Indiana University.

Note: Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Executive Summary -- 1. The Appeal of High Growth -- Definitions -- Incidence -- Job and Output Creation: The "80/20" Rule -- Linkages and Spillovers -- Annex 1A -- Notes -- References -- 2. Facets of High-Growth Events -- Size and Age -- Sector and Location -- Firms and Episodes -- Annex 2A -- Notes -- References -- 3. What Makes for High Growth? -- Productivity -- Innovation -- Agglomeration and Firm Networks -- Managerial Capabilities and Worker Skills -- Global Linkages -- Financial Development -- Annex 3A -- Notes -- References -- 4. Searching for Winners -- Programs and Instruments to Support Firm Growth -- Selection of Beneficiaries -- Toward an Evidence-Based Approach to Supporting High Firm Growth -- Annex 4A -- Notes -- References -- List of Background Papers -- Boxes -- 1.1 National Firm Data versus Enterprise Surveys -- 2.1 Firm Organization and High Growth -- 3.1 Theories of Firm Growth -- 3.2 Productivity and Demand over the Firm's Life Cycle -- 3.3 Firms in Focus: Chaldal, Bangladesh -- 3.4 Firms in Focus: Rappi, Colombia -- 3.5 Firms in Focus: Beijing Genomics Institute, China -- 3.6 Identifying Firm Leaders -- 3.7 Firms in Focus: AAA Growers, Kenya -- 3.8 Firms in Focus: Hi-Tech Gears, India -- 4.1 Communities, Networks, and Ecosystems -- 4.2 National Programs to Support High Firm Growth in Mexico and South Africa -- 4.3 Public Facilitation of Equity Finance -- 4.4 Endeavor's Selection Process -- 4.5 Measuring Cognitive Abilities -- 4.6 Competitiveness Policy Evaluation Lab (ComPEL) -- 4.7 Cross-Border Incubation and Acceleration Initiatives -- 4.8 Science, Technology, and Innovation Public Expenditure Reviews -- Figures -- ES.1 Country Coverage of the Book -- 1.1 Incidence of High Growth. , B1.1.1 HGF Incidence in National Data Sets and Enterprise Surveys -- 1.2 HGF Incidence and Per Capita Income -- 1.3 HGF Incidence and Industry Concentration or Growth -- 1.4 HGFs Contribute Disproportionately to Employment Growth -- 1.5 HGF Contributions to Employment Growth in Brazil and Mexico -- 1.6 HGFs Account for the Majority of Growth in Sales -- 1.7 Buying from or Supplying to HGFs Improves Firm Performance in Hungary -- 2.1 HGFs Are More Likely to Be Young -- 2.2 Most HGFs in Indonesia Are Medium-to-Large Firms -- 2.3 HGFs Tend to Be Larger than Other Firms -- 2.4 HGFs in Turkey Are More Likely to Be Larger than Other Firms -- 2.5 Large HGFs in Indonesia Create a Disproportionately Greater Number of Jobs -- 2.6 HGFs in Hungary Are More Common in Knowledge-Intensive Sectors -- 2.7 HGFs Are Found in High-Tech and Low-Tech Industries Alike -- 2.8 HGFs in Indonesia Are More Common in High-Tech Manufacturing but also in Some Low-Tech -- 2.9 More Entrepreneurship Translates into More HGFs across Brazilian States -- 2.10 HGFs Are More Common in the North of Mexico and in Large Cities -- 2.11 Reforms Increased the Concentration of HGFs in Ethiopia's Capital City -- 2.12 Larger Micro-Enterprises in India Benefit More from Improved Connectivity -- 2.13 HGFs in Indonesia Are Volatile and Lack Persistence -- 2.14 Survival Probability Is Higher When High Growth Occurs during a Firm's Early Years -- 2.15 Firms Move In and Out of HGF Status in Mexico -- 2A.1 HGFs in Services Sectors -- 3.1 Higher Initial TFP Is Associated with Subsequent High Growth among Ethiopian Plants -- 3.2 Future HGFs Outperform Other Hungarian Firms on Multiple Dimensions of Productivity -- 3.3 Firm Performance in Hungary Improves during High-Growth Episodes -- 3.4 High-Growth Experience Boosts TFP Growth in Ethiopia, Particularly So for Top Performers. , 3.5 The Overlap between Observed and "Efficient" HGFs Is Limited -- 3.6 The Fastest-Growing Firms in India Are Significantly More Innovative -- 3.7 Innovation Increases the Likelihood of High Growth in India -- 3.8 R& -- D Activity in Mexico Correlates Positively with High Growth -- 3.9 HGFs in Ethiopia Are More Common In or Close to Agglomeration Centers -- 3.10 Agglomeration Increases the Likelihood of High Growth in Ethiopia, while Industry Concentration Reduces It -- 3.11 Policy Reforms Strengthened the Links between Agglomeration and High Firm Growth in Ethiopia -- 3.12 In-Network Thai Firms Are Larger and More Likely to Experience High Growth -- 3.13 Participation in Networks Increases the Likelihood of High Firm Growth in Thailand -- 3.14 Initial Higher Wages among Ethiopian and Mexican Firms Are Correlated with High Growth -- 3.15 The Relationship between HGF Status and Higher Wages Is Stronger for Hungary's High-Tech Sectors -- 3.16 Employees and Managers of HGFs in Brazil Have Greater Human Capital Endowments -- 3.17 Future HGFs in Brazil Pay Substantially Higher Wages from the Moment of Birth -- 3.18 Hungarian Firms with Links to Global Markets Are More Likely to Experience High-Growth Events -- 3.19 International Exposure Is Positively Associated with High Growth in Mexico and Tunisia -- 3.20 Foreign Exposure in India Increases the Likelihood of High Growth More So in Services -- 3.21 FDI Linkages Increase the Likelihood of High Growth in Mexico -- 3.22 Financial Development Improves Firm Performance in Upper-Middle-Income Countries -- 4.1 Results Framework for a Science, Technology, and Innovation Intervention -- 4.2 High Performance versus High Program Impact -- 4.3 Grants to Start New Businesses in Nigeria Benefited Women More than Men -- 4.4 The "ABC" Framework to Support Firm Dynamism and Growth. , 4.5 Policy Instruments to Support Firm Growth -- 4.6 Decomposition of Productivity Growth -- Map -- ES.1 Countries Covered by the Book -- Tables -- 1.1 Correlations across HGF Definitions -- 1A.1 Data Sources and Descriptions -- 1A.2 Firm-Year Observations for Constructing the Cross-Country Comparable Sample -- 1A.3 World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) Data Coverage -- 2.1 High Growth Improves Survival Odds, but Only Slightly -- 2A.1 Expanded Transition Matrix -- 3.1 Correlates of High Firm Growth: Summary of Chapter Results -- 3A.1 Background Paper Definitions and Key Correlates of HGFs -- 4.1 Results Framework and Measurement for a Sample of Growth-Oriented Interventions -- 4A.1 List of 54 Targeted Interventions in 14 Developing Countries -- 4A.2 Intensity of Program Screening and Impacts.

Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4648-1368-X

Language: English

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URL: http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1368-9

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (60 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: Building on prior work that documented the impact of COVID-19 on firms in developing countries using the first wave of Business Pulse Surveys, this paper presents a new set of stylized facts on firm recovery, covering 65,000 observations in 38 countries. This paper suggests that: One, since the outset of the pandemic, some aspects of business performance such as sales show signs of partial recovery. Two, other aspects remain challenging, including persistently high uncertainty and financial fragility. Three, recovery is heterogeneous across firms and more sensitive to firm-level attributes such as size, sector, and initial productivity than to country-level differences in the severity of the initial shock. In particular, larger and more productive firms are recovering faster, with implications for competition policy and allocative efficiency. Four, the decline in jobs has been steeper during the initial shock than the expansion in employment during recovery, raising the risk of a "jobless" recovery pattern. Five, the diffusion of digital technology and product innovation accelerated during the pandemic but did so unevenly, further widening gaps between small and large firms. Six, businesses now have more access to policy support, but poorer countries continue to lag behind and appropriate targeting of firms remains a challenge.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9810

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (26 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: This paper relies on the recently developed Maquette for Millennium Development Goals Simulations (MAMS) model to assess the consistency of alternative scaling-up and policy packages for growth and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in Ghana. In the baseline scenario, Ghana's strong near and medium-term growth outlook puts it in a good position to achieve the poverty Millennium Development Goal ahead of schedule, but other goals are likely to remain elusive before 2015. In the accelerated growth scenario-which addresses the major gaps in water and sanitation and other infrastructure-even more rapid growth and poverty reduction are possible, but important targets in the areas of education, health, and environment remain unattainable. Although growth is complementary to achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, the authors also find important growth-human development trade-offs in the near term. The estimates show that the resource requirements for achieving the key Millennium Development Goals by 2015 are large, reaching USD 82 per capita in an illustrative foreign-grant financed scenario. Increased intake and retention of students contribute to rising scarcity of unskilled labor, buttressing unskilled wages, while high demand for skills from the sectors related to the Millennium Development Goals raises the returns to human capital. These developments lead to improvements in the welfare of the poorest members of Ghanaian society and contribute to a small reduction in overall inequality.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4523

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UID:

Format: 1 online resource (43 pages)

Series Statement: Policy research working papers.

Content: This paper uses a dynamic macro-micro framework to evaluate the potential distributional effects of the expansion of the Panama Canal. The results show that large macroeconomic effects are only likely during the operations phase (2014 and onward), and income gains are likely to be concentrated at the top of the income distribution. The additional foreign exchange inflows during the construction and operations phases result in the loss of competitiveness of non-Canal sectors (Dutch disease) and in higher domestic prices, which hurt the poorest consumers. In addition, the construction and operation activities increase demand for more educated non-farm formal workers. Although these changes encourage additional labor movement out of agriculture and from the informal to the formal sector, much of the impact is manifested in growing wage disparities and widening income inequality. Using the additional revenues of the Canal expansion in a targeted cash transfer program such as "Red de Oportunidades", the Government of Panama could offset the adverse distributional effects and eradicate extreme poverty.

Language: English

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5848

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