UID:
edocfu_9958112106002883
Format:
1 online resource (47 p.)
ISBN:
1-4623-2253-0
,
1-4527-7433-1
,
1-283-51845-7
,
1-4519-1146-7
,
9786613830906
Series Statement:
IMF working paper ; WP/07/129
Content:
This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from the U.S., play an important role in explaining French economic activity. While international trade, relative prices, and FDI flows are the main channels of transmission, the stock market, consumer confidence, and interest rates also matter. Second, France's integration with the rest of the world has increased over time. Third, there is some tentative evidence of regional components in explaining French output fluctuations; countryspecific components also contribute. The predominance of exogenous factors affecting French output, the asymmetry in the transmission of shocks, and France's participation in a currency area, argue for making French goods, services, and labor markets as flexible as possible.
Note:
"June 2007."
,
Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. The Model; B. Economic Conditions for Shocks Identification; III. Data and Estimation; A. Data Discussion; B. Estimation; IV. Econometric Results; A. U.S. Shocks; B. Channels of Transmission of U.S. Shocks to France; C. Is There Evidence of Increasing Interdependence Among Countries?; V. Conclusion and Policy Implications; Figures; 1. Impulse-Response Functions; 2. Common Components: Q2 1991-Q4 2003; 3. Common Components: Q2 1991-Q4 2003; Tables
,
1a. Forecast Error Variance of the Common Components of USA Variables Explained by the USA Supply Shock and the Demand Shock, 1980-20031b. Forecast Error Variance of the Common Components of France Variables Explained by the USA Supply Shock and the Demand Shock, 1980-2003; 2. Forecast Error Variance of the Common Components of German Variables Explained by the USA Supply Shock and the Demand Shock, 1980-2003; 3a. Forecast Error Variance of the Common Components of French Variables Explained by the USA Supply Shock and the Demand Shock, 1991-2003
,
3b. Forecast Error Variance of the Common Components of German Variables Explained by the USA Supply Shock and the Demand Shock, 1991-20034a. Forecast Error Variance of the Common Components of French Variables Explained by the G7 Excluding France Supply Shock and the Demand Shock, 1991-2003; 4b. Forecast Error Variance of the Common Components of French Variables Explained by the Euro Area Excluding France Supply Shock and the Demand Shock, 1991-2003; Appendix: Macroeconomic Series; References
,
English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-4518-6693-3
Language:
English
Bookmarklink
