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  • 1
    UID:
    b3kat_BV042401922
    Format: 48 S. , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: CESifo working papers 5054 : Category 1, Public finance
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics
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  • 2
    UID:
    b3kat_BV021482019
    Format: 30 S.
    Series Statement: National Bureau of Economic Research 〈Cambridge, Mass.〉: NBER working paper series 11826
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Internetausgabe
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics
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  • 3
    UID:
    b3kat_BV023591228
    Format: 30 S. , graph. Darst. , 22 cm
    Series Statement: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 11017
    Content: Global games of regime change -- that is, coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attacks it -- have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to accumulate information over time and take actions in many periods. It is shown that dynamics may lead to multiple equilibria under the same information assumptions that guarantee uniqueness in the static benchmark. Multiplicity originates in the interaction between the arrival of information over time and the endogenous change in beliefs induced by the knowledge that the regime survived past attacks. This interaction also generates interesting equilibrium properties, such as the possibility that fundamentals predict the eventual regime outcome but not the timing or the number of attacks, or that dynamics alternate between crises and phases of tranquility without changes in fundamentals.
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 4
    UID:
    b3kat_BV023593375
    Format: 49 S. , graph. Darst. , 22 cm
    Series Statement: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 13475
    Note: Literaturverz. S. 46 - 49
    Language: English
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  • 5
    UID:
    b3kat_BV023592699
    Format: 13 S. , 22 cm
    Series Statement: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 12778
    Content: In recent years there has been a growing interest in macro models with heterogeneity in information and complementarity in actions. These models deliver promising positive properties, such as heightened inertia and volatility. But they also raise important normative questions, such as whether the heightened inertia and volatility are socially undesirable, whether there is room for policies that correct the way agents use information in equilibrium, and what are the welfare effects of the information disseminated by the media or policy makers. We argue that a key to answering all these questions is the relation between the equilibrium and the socially optimal degrees of coordination. The former summarizes the private value from aligning individual decisions, whereas the latter summarizes the value that society assigns to such an alignment once all externalities are internalized.
    Note: Literaturverz. S. 13
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 6
    Book
    Book
    Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research
    UID:
    b3kat_BV023593487
    Format: 50 S. , 22 cm
    Series Statement: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 13590
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 7
    UID:
    b3kat_BV023590878
    Format: 13, [1] S. , graph. Darst. , 22 cm
    Series Statement: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 10391
    Content: How do public and private information affect equilibrium allocations and social welfare in economies with investment complementarities? And what is the optimal transparency in the information conveyed, for example, by economic statistics, policy announcements, or news in the media? We first consider an environment where the complementarities are weak so that the equilibrium is unique no matter the structure of information. An increase in the precision of public information may have the perverse effect of increasing aggregate volatility. Nevertheless, as long as there is no value to lotteries, welfare unambiguously increases with an increase in either the relative or the absolute precision of public information. Hence, full transparency is optimal. This is because more transparency facilitates more effective coordination, which is valuable from a social perspective. On the other hand, when complementarities are strong enough that multiple equilibria are possible, more transparency permits the market to coordinate more effectively on either the bad or the good equilibrium. In this case, constructive ambiguity becomes optimal if there is a high risk that more transparency will lead to coordination failures.
    Note: Literaturverz. S. 12 - 13
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 8
    Book
    Book
    Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research
    UID:
    b3kat_BV017439513
    Format: 36, [2] S. , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: National Bureau of Economic Research 〈Cambridge, Mass.〉: NBER working paper series 9767
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics
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    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research
    UID:
    almafu_9958121989802883
    Format: 1 online resource: , illustrations (black and white);
    Series Statement: NBER working paper series no. w13590
    Content: This paper studies policy in a class of economies in which information about commonly-relevant fundamentals -- such as aggregate productivity and demand conditions -- is dispersed and can not be centralized by the government. In these economies, the decentralized use of information can fail to be efficient either because of discrepancies between private and social payoffs, or because of informational externalities. In the first case, inefficiency manifests itself in excessive non-fundamental volatility (overreaction to common noise) or excessive cross-sectional dispersion (overreaction to idiosyncratic noise). In the second case, inefficiency manifests itself in suboptimal social learning (low quality of information contained in macroeconomic data, financial prices, and other indicators of economic activity). In either case, a novel role for policy is identified: the government can improve welfare by manipulating the incentives agents face when deciding how to use their available sources of information. Our key result is that this can be achieved by appropriately designing the contingency of marginal taxes on aggregate activity. This contingency permits the government to control the reaction of equilibrium to different types of noise, to improve the quality of information in prices and macro data, and, in overall, to restore efficiency in the decentralized use of information.
    Note: November 2007.
    Language: English
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  • 10
    UID:
    almafu_9958108023602883
    Format: 1 online resource: , illustrations (black and white);
    Series Statement: NBER working paper series no. w13475
    Content: Financial markets look at data on aggregate investment for clues about underlying profitability. At the same time, firms' investment depends on expected equity prices. This generates a two-way feedback between financial market prices and investment. In this paper we study the positive and normative implications of this interaction during episodes of intense technological change, when information about new investment opportunities is highly dispersed. Because high aggregate investment is "good news" for profitability, asset prices increase with aggregate investment. Because firms' incentives to invest in turn increase with asset prices, an endogenous complementarity emerges in investment decisions -- a complementarity that is due purely to informational reasons. We show that this complementarity dampens the impact of fundamentals (shifts in underlying profitability) and amplifies the impact of noise (correlated errors in individual assessments of profitability). We next show that these effects are symptoms of inefficiency: equilibrium investment reacts too little to fundamentals and too much to noise. We finally discuss policies that improve efficiency without requiring any informational advantage on the government's side.
    Note: October 2007.
    Language: English
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