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  • 1
    UID:
    almafu_BV042075337
    Format: 43 S. : , graph. Darst. ; , 21 cm.
    Series Statement: CESifo working paper 4736 : Category 12, Empirical and theoretical methods
    Note: Literaturangaben
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics
    RVK:
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Author information: Rebucci, Alessandro
    Author information: Pesaran, M. Hashem 1946-
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  • 2
    UID:
    edocfu_9958072908202883
    Format: 1 online resource (41 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4623-7399-2 , 1-4527-3095-4 , 1-282-60665-4 , 9786613822703 , 1-4519-1127-0
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/06/295
    Content: This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.
    Note: "May 2007". , Contents; I. INTRODUCTION; II. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND; III. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY; A. Construction of the Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market; B. Estimation of the Dynamic Effects; IV. DATA; V. RESULTS; A. Impulse Responses; B. Oil Exporters; C. High-Income Oil-Importing Economies; D. Oil Trade Balance; E. Non-oil Trade Balance; F. Trade Balance; G. Capital Gains; H. Current Account and Change in NFA; Middle-Income Oil-Importing Economies; Latin America versus Emerging Asia; Summary; Historical Decompositions; VI. CONCLUSIONS; References; Data Appendix; A. Variable List , B. Country groupings: , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6674-7
    Language: English
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  • 3
    UID:
    edocfu_9958072909502883
    Format: 1 online resource (34 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4623-1452-X , 1-4527-8346-2 , 1-282-59100-2 , 9786613822642 , 1-4519-0637-4
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/05/82
    Content: We examine the effect of non-zero, long-run foreign asset positions on consumption dynamics in response to productivity shocks in a two-country, dynamic, general equilibrium model, with different discount factors across countries populated by overlapping generations of households. We then compare the model results to those of a VAR for the United States versus the rest of the G-7. In the data, we find that permanent worldwide productivity shocks lead to net foreign asset and consumption dynamics that are consistent with interpreting the United States as the impatient economy in our model and are not consistent with symmetric models with equal discount factors.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , ""Contents"" , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6101-X
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, D.C.] :International Monetary Fund,
    UID:
    edocfu_9958068442002883
    Format: 40 p. : , ill.
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 1-4623-3456-3 , 1-4518-7420-0 , 1-282-84462-8 , 1-4527-6720-3 , 9786612844621
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/09/275
    Content: International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country's net foreign asset position through the valuation channel, namely capital gains and losses on external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation channel in a dynamic equilibrium portfolio model with international trade in equity. By separating asset prices and quantities, we can characterize the first-order dynamics of valuation effects and the current account in macroeconomic dynamics. Specifically, we disentangle the roles of excess returns, capital gains, and portfolio adjustment for consumption risk sharing when financial markets are incomplete.
    Note: Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph , Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. The Model -- A. Households and Governments -- B. Firms -- C. Some Useful Properties -- D. The Steady-State Portfolio and the Role of Labor Supply Elasticity -- III. The Anatomy of Portfolio Adjustment and Valuation -- A. First-Order Portfolio Adjustment and Valuation -- B. Valuation, Portfolio Adjustment, and Macroconomic Dynamics -- IV. The Valuation Channel at Work -- A. Calibration -- B. A Productivity Shock -- 1. Impulse Responses, Productivity Shock -- 2. Comparison of Valuation Measures, Productivity Shock -- 3. Valuation, the Current Account, and Risk Sharing, Productivity Shock -- C. A Government Spending Shock -- 4. Impulse Responses, Government Spending Shock -- 5. Valuation, the Current Account, and Risk Sharing, Government Spending Shock -- V. Conclusion -- References -- Footnotes. , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4519-1836-4
    Language: English
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  • 5
    UID:
    edocfu_9958068247102883
    Format: 1 online resource (30 p.)
    ISBN: 1-4843-7087-2 , 1-4843-6300-0 , 1-4843-8059-2
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/13/73
    Content: We use a heterogeneous panel VAR model identified through factor analysis to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a “global” aid shock. We find that a global aid shock can affect exports, imports, and growth either positively or negatively. As a result, the relation between aid and growth is mixed, consistent with the ambiguous results in the existing literature. For most countries in the sample, when aid reduces exports and imports, it also reduces growth; and, when aid increases exports and imports, it also increases growth. This evidence is consistent with a DD hypothesis, but also shows that aid-receiving countries are not “doomed” to catch DD.
    Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. Methodology; 2.1 Empirical Model; 2.2 Estimation; 2.3 Identification of a global aid shock; 3. Data; 4. Results; 5. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Growth, Aid, and Trade Flow Persistence: Sample Autocorrelations; 2. Country Loadings on Global Aid (i.e., Average Aid-to-GDP, 1966-2002); 3. Cumulative Impact of Global Aid Shock on Per Capita Growth and Export-to-GDP and Selected variables; 4. Country Groups; Figures; 1. Global Aid (i.e., Average Aid-to-GDP, 1966-2002; 2. Alternative Measures of Global Aid (1966-2002) , 3. Per Capita GDP Growth and Export to GDP: Cumulative Impulse Responses to Global Aid Shock4. Cumulative Impulse Responses to Global Aid Shock (Grouped by Growth Response); 5. Cumulative Impulse Responses to Global Aid Shock (Grouped by Export Response); 6. Variance Shares Due to Global Aid Shock , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4843-2011-5
    Language: English
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  • 6
    UID:
    edocfu_9958074022602883
    Format: 1 online resource (22 p.)
    Edition: Rev. ed. / 11/16/05.
    ISBN: 1-4623-1652-2 , 1-4527-9253-4 , 1-283-51170-3 , 1-4519-0764-8 , 9786613824158
    Series Statement: IMF working paper ; WP/05/209
    Content: Japan is facing a sizable fiscal imbalance against a backdrop of weak trend growth and growing external imbalances in the world economy. This paper examines the possible impact of fiscal adjustment and productivity-enhancing structural reforms on the Japanese and world economies. Simulation results indicate that these could reduce substantially Japan's fiscal imbalance with only limited spillovers to the rest of the world. Specifically, faster productivity growth would help lower Japan's debt and limit the tendency of fiscal consolidation to increase the external surplus. In fact, very rapid productivity growth could potentially lead to a decline in Japan's external surplus and thereby have a positive effect on global imbalance. The modest extent of the spillovers to the rest of the world reflect the small size of the shocks and the diminished size of Japan in the world economy.
    Note: "November 2005." , ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. THE MODEL""; ""III. SCENARIOS""; ""IV. SIMULATION RESULTS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References"" , English
    Additional Edition: ISBN 1-4518-6228-8
    Language: English
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  • 7
    UID:
    gbv_1882885554
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research DP18877
    Content: In this paper, we show that cross-border portfolio flows around the peak of the European Crisis induced households to rebalance their portfolios toward housing. Estimating difference-in-differences regressions around Draghi's ``Whatever It Takes" speech in July 2012 estimated with household data from the ECB's Household Finance and Consumption Survey, we find that portfolio inflows induce households with larger ex-ante bond and equity shares to rebalance more strongly toward housing. The effect is not driven by higher pre-treatment access to credit or higher credit growth during the treatment period and is stronger for wealthier and less risk-averse households.
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Author information: Rebucci, Alessandro
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  • 8
    UID:
    gbv_1882883691
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research DP18876
    Content: We document a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission exploiting variation in German household data in a difference-in-differences setting around QE adoption in 2015. We find that QE encourages households with larger initial bond positions to rebalance more toward second homes. Rebalancing is especially pronounced among higher-income and church-affiliated households with stronger tax incentives to purchase and rent out properties. We also show that, in regions more exposed to this channel, house prices increase more than rents, and sale listings decrease more than rental ones, suggesting that the rental supply may increase in response to QE.
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Author information: Rebucci, Alessandro
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_84586338X
    Format: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451858523 , 9781451858525
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 03/171
    Content: We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work well using both simulated and actual data
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Rebucci, Alessandro Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003 ISBN 9781451858525
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    UID:
    gbv_845863231
    Format: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1451845278 , 9781451845273
    Series Statement: IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 02/34
    Content: We compare the performance of a currency board, inflation targeting, and dollarization in a small, open developing economy with a liberalized capital account. We focus on the transmission of shocks to currency and country risk premia and on the role of fluctuations in premia in the propagation of other shocks. We calibrate our model on Argentina. The framework matches the second moments of key variables well. Welfare analysis suggests that dollarization is preferable to alternative regimes because it removes currency premium volatility. However, a currency board can match dollarization on welfare grounds if the central bank holds a sufficiently large stock of foreign reserves
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Rebucci, Alessandro Monetary Rules for Emerging Market Economies Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2002 ISBN 9781451845273
    Language: English
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