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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Why Resilience Matters : The Poverty Impacts of Disasters (2013)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246577502883
    Format: 1 online resource (25 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper presents empirical evidence of the profound and long-term damages from adverse natural events on poverty. It analyzes 30 years of macro-level damage data from disasters (including earthquakes, floods, and storms), according to income groups, and shows that low-income countries incur disproportionately large damages relative to their assets. Furthermore, the paper reviews the micro-level evidence of disaster impacts on the livelihoods of the poorest households. The evidence suggests that the poor are significantly more vulnerable and exposed to the economic and human capital losses caused by disasters. It discusses detrimental long-term consequences for the income and welfare of the poor and the presence of poverty traps that result from damages to productive assets, health, and education. The roles of migration and ex-ante behavior are also discussed. In the context of climate change, the paper underscores the importance of considering the detrimental impacts of smaller but repeated crises, for instance caused by changes in local precipitation patterns. Lastly, the paper offers a brief discussion of policy options for strengthening resilience and highlights the need for further research for understanding the complex direct and indirect effects of disasters on the poor.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6699
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy / (2013)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246585802883
    Format: 1 online resource (20 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility, but a country-specific analysis would be necessary to identify concrete policy measures. Overall, the paper provides an additional rationale for reducing exposure and vulnerability to oil price volatility for the sake of economic growth.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6603
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wading Out the Storm : The Role of Poverty in Exposure, Vulnerability and Resilience to Floods in Dar Es Salaam (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959128134002883
    Format: 1 online resource (52 pages)
    Series Statement: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
    Content: Dar es Salaam is frequently affected by severe flooding causing destruction and impeding daily life of its 4.5 million inhabitants. The focus of this paper is on the role of poverty in the impact of floods on households, focusing on both direct (damage to or loss of assets or property) and indirect (losses involving health, infrastructure, labor, and education) impacts using household survey data. Poorer households are more likely to be affected by floods; directly affected households are more likely female-headed and have more insecure tenure arrangements; and indirectly affected households tend to have access to poorer quality infrastructure. Focusing on the floods of April 2018, affected households suffered losses of 23 percent of annual income on average. Surprisingly, poorer households are not over-represented among the households that lost the most - even in relation to their income, possibly because 77 percent of total losses were due to asset losses, with richer households having more valuable assets. Although indirect losses were relatively small, they had significant well-being effects for the affected households. It is estimated that households' losses due to the April 2018 flood reached more than USD 100 million, representing between 2-4 percent of the gross domestic product of Dar es Salaam. Furthermore, poorer households were less likely to recover from flood exposure. The report finds that access to finance play an important role in recovery for households.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8976
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    Fulltext
    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Floods and Their Impacts on Firms : Evidence from Tanzania (2021)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9960070281602883
    Format: 1 online resource (50 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This study explores how businesses in Tanzania are impacted by floods, and which strategies they use to cope and adapt. These insights are based on firm survey data collected in 2018 using a tailored questionnaire, covering a sample of more than 800 firms. To assess the impact of disasters on businesses, the study considers direct damages and indirect effects through infrastructure systems, supply chains, and workers. While direct on-site damages from flooding can be substantial, they tend to affect a relatively small share of firms. Indirect impacts of floods are more prevalent and sizable. Flood-induced infrastructure disruptions-especially electricity and transport-obstruct the operations of firms even when they are not directly located in flood zones. The effects of such disruptions are further propagated and multiplied along supply chains. The study estimates that supply chain multipliers are responsible for 30 to 50 percent of all flood-related delivery delays. To cope with these impacts, firms apply a variety of strategies. Firms mitigate supply disruptions by adjusting the size and geographical reach of their supply networks, and by adjusting inventory holdings. By investing in costly backup capacity (such as water tanks and electricity generators), firms mitigate the impact of infrastructure disruptions. The study estimates that only 13 percent of firms receive government support in the aftermath of floods.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9774
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    FU Berlin
    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Air pollution and poverty : PM2.5 exposure in 211 countries and territories (2022)
    Washington, District of Columbia :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9961265131302883
    Format: 1 online resource (28 pages)
    Content: Air pollution is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, especially affecting poorer people who tend to be more exposed and vulnerable. This study contributes (i) updated global exposure estimates for the World Health Organizations's 2021 revised fine particulate matter (PM2.5) thresholds, and (ii) estimates of the number of poor people exposed to unsafe PM2.5 concentrations. It shows that 7.28 billion people, or 94 percent of the world population, are directly exposed to unsafe average annual PM2.5 concentrations. Low- and middle-income countries account for 80 percent of people exposed to unsafe PM2.5 levels. Moreover, 716 million poor people (living on less than USD 1.90 per day) live in areas with unsafe air pollution. Around half of them are located in just three countries: India, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Air pollution levels are particularly high in lower-middle-income countries, where economies tend to rely more heavily on polluting industries and technologies. The findings are based on high-resolution air pollution and population maps with global coverage, as well as subnational poverty estimates based on harmonized household surveys.
    Language: English
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones : Global Evidence since 1985 (2022)
    Washington, District of Columbia :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9960787004502883
    Format: 1 online resource (213 pages)
    Content: As countries rapidly urbanize, settlements are expanding into hazardous flood zones. This study provides a global analysis of spatial urbanization patterns and the evolution of flood exposure between 1985 and 2015. Using high-resolution annual data, it shows that settlements across the world grew by 85 percent to over 1.28 million square kilometers. In the same period, settlements exposed to the highest flood hazard level increased by 122 percent. In many regions, risky growth is outpacing safe growth, particularly in East Asia, where high-risk settlements have expanded 60 percent faster than safe ones. Developing countries are driving the recent growth of flood exposure: 36,500 square kilometers of settlements were built in the world's highest-risk zones since 1985-82 percent of which are in low- and middle-income countries. In comparison, recent growth in high-income countries has been relatively slow and safe. These results document a divergence in countries' exposure to flood hazards. Rather than adapting their exposure to climatic hazards, many countries are actively increasing their exposure.
    Language: English
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    UB Potsdam
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Three Feet Under : Urban Jobs, Connectivity, and Infrastructure (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959104515102883
    Format: 1 online resource (30 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper analyses the degree to which infrastructure reliability and urban economic activity in several African cities is impacted by flooding. It combines firm-level micro data, flood maps, and several spatial data layers across cities through a harmonized geospatial network analysis. The analysis shows that a significant share of jobs in cities is directly affected by floods. It further details how transport infrastructure is subjected to significant flood risk that disproportionally affects main roads in many cities. While direct flood effects are revealed to be significant, this work further shows how knock-on implications for the entire urban economy might be even larger. Regardless of the direct flood exposure of firms, flooded transport networks mean that disruptions propagate across the city and drastically reduce the connectivity between firms. Access to hospitals is also found to be reduced significantly-even during relatively light flooding events: From a third of locations in Kampala, floods mean that people would no longer be able to reach hospitals within the "golden hour"-a rule of thumb referring to the window of time that maximizes the likelihood of survival after a severe medical incident. Overall, this study showcases the use of high-detail city-level analyses to better understand the localized impacts of natural hazards on urban infrastructure networks.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8898
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Underutilized Potential : The Business Costs of Unreliable Infrastructure in Developing Countries (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959104515002883
    Format: 1 online resource (36 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This study constructs a microdata set of about 143,000 firms to estimate the monetary costs of infrastructure disruptions in 137 low- and middle-income countries, representing 78 percent of the world population and 80 percent of the GDP of low- and -middle-income countries. Specifically, this study assesses the impact of transport, electricity, and water disruptions on the capacity utilization rates of firms. The estimates suggest that utilization losses amount to 151 billion dollar a year-of which 107 billion dollar are due to transport disruptions, 38 billion dollar due to blackouts, and 6 billion dollar due to dryouts. Moreover, this study shows that electricity outages are causing sales losses equivalent to 82 billion dollar a year. Firms are also incurring the costs of self-generated electricity, estimated to amount to 64 billion dollar a year (including annualized capital expenditure). At almost 300 billion dollar a year, these figures highlight the substantial drag that unreliable infrastructure imposes on firms in developing countries. Yet, these figures are likely to be under-estimates as neither all countries nor all types of impacts are covered.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8899
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Candle in the Wind : Energy System Resilience to Natural Shocks (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959104515202883
    Format: 1 online resource (38 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This study finds that natural shocks-storms in particular-are a significant and often leading cause for power supply disruptions. This finding is based on 20 years of high frequency (i.e. daily) data on power outages and climate variables in 28 countries-Bangladesh, the United States and 26 European countries. More specifically: (1) Natural shocks are the most important cause of power outages in developed economies. On average, they account for more than 50 of annual outage duration in both the US and Europe. In contrast, natural shocks are responsible for a small share of outages in Bangladesh, where disruptions occur on a daily basis for a variety of reasons. (2) Outages due to natural shocks are found to last significantly longer than those due to non-natural shocks in-e.g. more than 4.5 times in Europe. Reasons include the challenge of locating wide-spread damages, and the sustained duration of storms. (3) Several factors can reinforce the adverse effect of natural shocks on power supply. In the US, forest cover is shown to significantly increase the risk of power outages when storms occur. (4) There are significant differences in network fragility. For instance, wind speeds above 35 km/h are found to be 12 times more likely to cause an outage in Bangladesh than in the US. This difference may be explained by a range of factors, including investments in infrastructure resilience and maintenance.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8897
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Strengthening New Infrastructure Assets : A Cost-Benefit Analysis (2019)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959104515302883
    Format: 1 online resource (16 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper explores the benefits and the costs of strengthening infrastructure assets to make them more resilient, reducing the repair costs and infrastructure disruptions caused by natural hazards. Strengthening infrastructure assets in low- and middle-income countries would increase investment needs in power, transport, and water and sanitation by between 11 billion dollar and 65 billion dollar a year, id est 3 percent of baseline infrastructure investment needs. The uncertainty pertaining to the costs and benefits of infrastructure resilience makes it difficult to provide a single estimate for the benefit-cost ratio of strengthening exposed infrastructure assets. To manage this uncertainty, this paper explores the benefit-cost ratio in 3,000 scenarios, combining uncertainties in all parameters of the analysis. The benefit-cost ratio is higher than 1 in 96 percent of the scenarios, larger than 2 in 77 percent of them, and higher than 4 in half of them. The net present value of these investments over the lifetime of new infrastructure assets-or, equivalently, the cost of inaction-exceeds 2 trillion dollar in 75 percent of the scenarios and 4.2 trillion dollar in half of them. Moreover, climate change makes the strengthening of infrastructure assets even more important, doubling the median benefit-cost ratio.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8896
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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    FU Berlin
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
    Charité
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