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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions (2024)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_29280
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (17 Seiten)
    Content: Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core dimensions of climate and biosphere change. Land system change, including deforestation and urbanization, alters ecosystems and impacts the water and energy cycle between the land surface and atmosphere, while climate change can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and impact vegetation composition and soil carbon pools. These drivers also interact with each other, further exacerbating their impacts. Earth system models have been used recently to illustrate the risks and interacting effects of transgressing selected planetary boundaries, but a detailed analysis is still missing. Here, we study the impacts of long-term transgressions of the climate and land system change boundaries on the Earth system using an Earth system model with an incorporated detailed dynamic vegetation model. In our centennial-scale simulation analysis, we find that transgressing the land system change boundary results in increases in global temperatures and aridity. Furthermore, this transgression is associated with a substantial loss of vegetation carbon, exceeding 200 Pg C, in contrast to conditions considered safe. Concurrently, the influence of climate change becomes evident as temperatures surge by 2.7–3.1 °C depending on the region. Notably, carbon dynamics are most profoundly affected within the large carbon reservoirs of the boreal permafrost areas, where carbon emissions peak at 150 Pg C. While a restoration scenario to reduce human pressure to meet the planetary boundaries of climate change and land system change proves beneficial for carbon pools and global mean temperature, a transgression of these boundaries could lead to profoundly negative effects on the Earth system and the terrestrial biosphere. Our results suggest that respecting both boundaries is essential for safeguarding Holocene-like planetary conditions that characterize a resilient Earth system and are in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    In: Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 15,2, Seiten 467-483
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.18452/28665
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-467-2024
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/29280-2
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    biospheremetrics v1.0.2: an R package to calculate two complementary terrestrial biosphere integrity indicators – human colonization of the biosphere (BioCol) and risk of ecosystem destabilization (EcoRisk) (2024)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_29281
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (24 Seiten)
    Content: Ecosystems are under multiple stressors, and impacts can be measured with multiple variables. Humans have altered mass and energy flows of basically all ecosystems on Earth towards dangerous levels. However, integrating the data and synthesizing conclusions is becoming more and more complicated. Here we present an automated and easy-to-apply R package to assess terrestrial biosphere integrity that combines two complementary metrics. (i) The BioCol metric that quantifies the human colonization pressure exerted on the biosphere through alteration and extraction (appropriation) of net primary productivity.(ii) The EcoRisk metric that quantifies biogeochemical and vegetation structural changes as a proxy for the risk of ecosystem destabilization. Applied to simulations with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL5 for 1500–2016, we find that large regions presently (period 2007–2016) show modification and extraction of 〉20 % of the preindustrial potential net primary production. The modification (degradation) of net primary production (NPP) as a result of land use change and extraction in terms of biomass removal (e.g., from harvest) leads to drastic alterations in key ecosystem properties, which suggests a high risk of ecosystem destabilization. As a consequence of these dynamics, EcoRisk shows particularly high values in regions with intense land use and deforestation and in regions prone to impacts of climate change, such as the Arctic and boreal zone. The metrics presented here enable spatially explicit global-scale evaluation of historical and future states of the biosphere and are designed for use by the wider scientific community, being applicable not only to assessing biosphere integrity but also to benchmarking model performance. The package will be maintained on GitHub and through that we encourage its future application to other models and data sets.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    In: Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 17,8, Seiten 3235-3258
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.18452/28666
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/29281-8
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change Carbon Balance and Management (2006)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_18840
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (7 Seiten)
    Content: Background: Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. Results: The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century. Conclusion: Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    Note: Die Zweitveröffentlichung der Publikation wurde durch Studierende des Projektseminars "Open Access Publizieren an der HU" im Sommersemester 2017 betreut. Nachgenutzt gemäß den CC-Bestimmungen des Lizenzgebers bzw. einer im Dokument selbst enthaltenen CC-Lizenz.
    In: Carbon Balance and Management, ,2006
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.18452/18169
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/18840-7
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Drivers and patterns of land biosphere carbon balance reversal (2016)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_25618
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (11 Seiten)
    Content: The carbon balance of the land biosphere is the result of complex interactions between land, atmosphere and oceans, including climatic change, carbon dioxide fertilization and land-use change. While the land biosphere currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, this carbon balance might be reversed under climate and land-use change (‘carbon balance reversal’). A carbon balance reversal would render climate mitigation much more difficult, as net negative emissions would be needed to even stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We investigate the robustness of the land biosphere carbon sink under different socio-economic pathways by systematically varying climate sensitivity, spatial patterns of climate change and resulting land-use changes. For this, we employ a modelling framework designed to account for all relevant feedback mechanisms by coupling the integrated assessment model IMAGE with the process-based dynamic vegetation, hydrology and crop growth model LPJmL. We find that carbon balance reversal can occur under a broad range of forcings and is connected to changes in tree cover and soil carbon mainly in northern latitudes. These changes are largely a consequence of vegetation responses to varying climate and only partially of land-use change and the rate of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change as deduced from different climate models, substantially determine how much pressure in terms of global warming and land-use change the land biosphere will tolerate before the carbon balance is reversed. A reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance can occur as early as 2030, although at very low probability, and should be considered in the design of so-called peak-and-decline strategies.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    In: Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016, 11,4
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.18452/24937
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044002
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25618-4
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Water savings potentials of irrigation systems global simulations of processes and linkages (2015)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_18842
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (19 Seiten)
    Content: Global agricultural production is heavily sustained by irrigation, but irrigation system efficiencies are often surprisingly low. However, our knowledge of irrigation efficiencies is mostly confined to rough indicative estimates for countries or regions that do not account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity due to climate and other biophysical dependencies. To allow for refined estimates of global agricultural water use, and of water saving and water productivity potentials constrained by biophysical processes and also nontrivial downstream effects, we incorporated a process-based representation of the three major irrigation systems (surface, sprinkler, and drip) into a bio- and grosphere model, LPJmL. Based on this enhanced model we provide a gridded world map of irrigation efficiencies that are calculated in direct linkage to differences in system types, crop types, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and overall crop management. We find pronounced regional patterns in beneficial irrigation efficiency (a refined irrigation efficiency indicator accounting for crop-productive water consumption only), due to differences in these features, with the lowest values ( 〈30 %) in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and the highest values (〉60 %) in Europe and North America. We arrive at an estimate of global irrigation water withdrawal of 2469 km3 (2004–2009 average); irrigation water consumption is calculated to be 1257 km3, of which 608 km3 are non-beneficially consumed, i.e., lost through evaporation, interception, and conveyance. Replacing surface systems by sprinkler or drip systems could, on average across the world’s river basins, reduce the non-beneficial consumption at river basin level by 54 and 76 %, respectively, while maintaining the current level of crop yields. Accordingly, crop water productivity would increase by 9 and 15 %, respectively, and by much more in specific regions such as in the Indus basin. This study significantly advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems. In this paper, presented opportunities associated with irrigation improvements are significant and suggest that they should be considered an important means on the way to sustainable food security.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    Note: Die Zweitveröffentlichung der Publikation wurde durch Studierende des Projektseminars "Open Access Publizieren an der HU" im Sommersemester 2017 betreut. Nachgenutzt gemäß den CC-Bestimmungen des Lizenzgebers bzw. einer im Dokument selbst enthaltenen CC-Lizenz.
    In: 19, Seiten 3073-3091
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.18452/18171
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/18842-9
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems (2013)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_18843
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (11 Seiten)
    Content: Globally increasing temperatures are likely to have impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems that are difficult to manage. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is fundamental to substantiating the discussion on climate mitigation targets and adaptation planning. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits global warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, our simulations for most climate models agree that up to one-fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate ecosystem change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfil their current emissions reduction pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change, the area potentially at risk of major ecosystem change considering all climate models is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single model.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    Note: Die Zweitveröffentlichung der Publikation wurde durch Studierende des Projektseminars "Open Access Publizieren an der HU" im Sommersemester 2017 betreut. Nachgenutzt gemäß den CC-Bestimmungen des Lizenzgebers bzw. einer im Dokument selbst enthaltenen CC-Lizenz.
    In: 4, Seiten 347-357
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.18452/18172
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-4-347-2013
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/18843-4
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Three centuries of dual pressure from land use and climate change on the biosphere (2015)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_24926
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (11 Seiten)
    Content: Human land use and anthropogenic climate change (CC) are placing mounting pressure on natural ecosystems worldwide, with impacts on biodiversity, water resources, nutrient and carbon cycles. Here, we present a quantitative macro-scale comparative analysis of the separate and joint dual impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and CC on the terrestrial biosphere during the last ca. 300 years, based on simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model and an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical, hydrological and vegetation-structural shifts. We find that by the beginning of the 21st century LULCC and CC have jointly caused major shifts on more than 90% of all areas now cultivated, corresponding to 26% of the land area. CC has exposed another 26% of natural ecosystems to moderate or major shifts. Within three centuries, the impact of LULCC on landscapes has increased 13-fold. Within just one century, CC effects have caught up with LULCC effects.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    In: Bristol : IOP Publ., 10,4
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044011
    DOI: 10.18452/24271
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/24926-4
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere (2011)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_25859
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (8 Seiten)
    Content: The functioning of many ecosystems and their associated resilience could become severely compromised by climate change over the 21st century. We present a global risk analysis of terrestrial ecosystem changes based on an aggregate metric of joint changes in macroscopic ecosystem features including vegetation structure as well as carbon and water fluxes and stores. We apply this metric to global ecosystem simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) under 58 WCRP CMIP3 climate change projections. Given the current knowledge of ecosystem processes and projected climate change patterns, we find that severe ecosystem changes cannot be excluded on any continent. They are likely to occur (in 〉 90% of the climate projections) in the boreal–temperate ecotone where heat and drought stress might lead to large-scale forest die-back, along boreal and mountainous tree lines where the temperature limitation will be alleviated, and in water-limited ecosystems where elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration will lead to increased water use efficiency of photosynthesis. Considerable ecosystem changes can be expected above 3 K local temperature change in cold and tropical climates and above 4 K in the temperate zone. Sensitivity to temperature change increases with decreasing precipitation in tropical and temperate ecosystems. In summary, there is a risk of substantial restructuring of the global land biosphere on current trajectories of climate change.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    In: Bristol : IOP Publ., 6,3
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034036
    DOI: 10.18452/25168
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25859-6
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models (2017)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_19585
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (9 Seiten)
    ISSN: 2041-1723 , 2041-1723
    Content: High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day 430 C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures 430 C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    Note: Nachgenutzt gemäß den CC-Bestimmungen des Lizenzgebers bzw. einer im Dokument selbst enthaltenen CC-Lizenz.
    In: London : Nature Publishing Group, 8,13931, 2041-1723
    Language: Undetermined
    DOI: 10.18452/18857
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13931
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/19585-4
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget (2013)
    Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Details
    UID:
    edochu_18452_25672
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (10 Seiten)
    Content: Climate warming affects permafrost soil carbon pools in two opposing ways: enhanced vegetation growth leads to higher carbon inputs to the soil, whereas permafrost melting accelerates decomposition and hence carbon release. Here, we study the spatial and temporal dynamics of these two processes under scenarios of climate change and evaluate their influence on the carbon balance of the permafrost zone. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, which simulates plant physiological and ecological processes and includes a newly developed discrete layer energy balance permafrost module and a vertical carbon distribution within the soil layer. The model is able to reproduce the interactions between vegetation and soil carbon dynamics as well as to simulate dynamic permafrost changes resulting from changes in the climate. We find that vegetation responds more rapidly to warming of the permafrost zone than soil carbon pools due to long time lags in permafrost thawing, and that the initial simulated net uptake of carbon may continue for some decades of warming. However, once the turning point is reached, if carbon release exceeds uptake, carbon is lost irreversibly from the system and cannot be compensated for by increasing vegetation carbon input. Our analysis highlights the importance of including dynamic vegetation and long-term responses into analyses of permafrost zone carbon budgets.
    Content: Peer Reviewed
    In: Bristol : IOP Publ., 2013, 8,1
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014026
    DOI: 10.18452/24988
    URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25672-3
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    HU Berlin
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