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  • 1
    UID:
    almahu_9947413917202882
    Format: 1 online resource (xxiv, 455 pages) : , digital, PDF file(s).
    ISBN: 9781316388464 (ebook)
    Content: This book presents a significant advancement in the theory and practice of knowledge engineering, the discipline concerned with the development of systems that use expert knowledge and reasoning to solve complex problems. It covers the main stages in the development of a knowledge-based system: understanding the application domain, modeling problem solving in that domain, developing the ontology and the reasoning rules, and testing the system. The book focuses on a special class of systems - learning assistants for evidence-based reasoning that learn complex problem solving expertise directly from human experts, support experts and non-experts in problem solving and decision making, and teach their problem solving expertise to students. A powerful learning agent shell, Disciple-EBR, is included with the book, enabling students, practitioners, and researchers to rapidly develop learning assistants in a wide variety of domains that require evidence-based reasoning, including intelligence analysis, cyber security, law, forensics, medicine, and education.
    Note: Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 06 Sep 2016).
    Additional Edition: Print version: ISBN 9781107122567
    Language: English
    Subjects: Computer Science , Economics
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    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 2
    UID:
    almahu_9947413912902882
    Format: 1 online resource (xxii, 262 pages) : , digital, PDF file(s).
    ISBN: 9781316388488 (ebook)
    Content: This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and evidence; and we test the hypotheses on the basis of the evidence we are discovering. To facilitate the learning of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; assess the relevance, believability, and inferential force of evidence; and finally judge the probability of the hypotheses.
    Note: Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 08 Aug 2016).
    Additional Edition: Print version: ISBN 9781107122604
    Language: English
    Subjects: Psychology
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    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 3
    Book
    Book
    New York [u.a.] :Acad. Press,
    UID:
    almafu_BV021942291
    Format: XV, 403 S.
    Language: English
    Subjects: Mathematics
    RVK:
    Keywords: Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung
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  • 4
    UID:
    almafu_BV043838479
    Format: xxiv, 455 Seiten : , Illustrationen, Diagramme.
    ISBN: 978-1-107-12256-7
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe Knowledge engineering ISBN 978-1-316-38846-4
    Language: English
    Subjects: Computer Science , Economics
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    Keywords: Wissenstechnik ; Wissensextraktion ; Ontologie
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  • 5
    UID:
    almahu_9949198285902882
    Format: XII, 434 p. , online resource.
    Edition: 1st ed. 1999.
    ISBN: 9781461550891
    Content: Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.
    Note: to a Festschrift -- Behavioral Decision Theory -- On the Interplay of Riskless and Risky Utility -- The Paradoxes of Allais, Stochastic Dominance, and Decision Weights -- Who's Afraid of a Little Risk? New Evidence for General Risk Aversion -- Manipulating Hedonic Strategies of Choice -- How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics? -- Decision Making by Domain Experts: The GNAHM Effect -- Decision Analysis -- On The Relevance of Behavioral Decision Research for Decision Analysis -- Evaluation of Probabilities: A Level Playing Field? -- A Robust Bayesian Look at the Theory of Precise Measurement -- Probabilistic Reasoning and the Science of Complexity -- Linear Inequalities and the Analysis of Multi-Attribute Value Matrices -- Life and Death Decisions for Individuals and Couples -- Robot Ethics, Value Systems and Decision Theoretic Behaviors -- Decision-Theoretic Troubleshooting: A Framework for Repair and Experiment -- Decisions in Society -- Public Values and Public Policy -- Group Elicitation of Probability Distributions: Are Many Heads Better Than One? -- The QALY Model: Utilities for Cost-Utility Analysis in Health Care -- Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, and the Social Context for Risk Decision Making -- Historical Notes -- The Making of Decision Theory -- A Brief History of SPUDM, or How Europe Took Off on Behavioral Decision Research -- Ward Edwards and New Professional Organizations -- Some Reflections on Ward Edwards -- The Last Word -- Festschrift: A Book and A Party.
    In: Springer Nature eBook
    Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9781461373155
    Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9780792383994
    Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9781461550907
    Language: English
    Subjects: Psychology
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    Keywords: Konferenzschrift ; Aufsatzsammlung
    URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cambridge :Cambridge University Press,
    UID:
    almahu_9947414300602882
    Format: 1 online resource (xxxii, 401 pages) : , digital, PDF file(s).
    Edition: Second edition.
    ISBN: 9780511610585 (ebook)
    Series Statement: Law in context
    Content: This extensively revised second edition is a rigorous introduction to the construction and criticism of arguments about questions of fact, and to the marshalling and evaluation of evidence at all stages of litigation. It covers the principles underlying the logic of proof; the uses and dangers of story-telling; standards for decision and the relationship between probabilities and proof; the chart method and other methods of analyzing and ordering evidence in fact-investigation, in preparing for trial, and in connection with other important decisions in legal processes and in criminal investigation and intelligence analysis. Most of the chapters in this new edition have been rewritten; the treatment of fact investigation, probabilities and narrative has been extended; and new examples and exercises have been added. Designed as a flexible tool for undergraduate and postgraduate courses on evidence and proof, students, practitioners and teachers alike will find this book challenging but rewarding.
    Note: Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015).
    Additional Edition: Print version: ISBN 9780521673167
    Language: English
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 7
    UID:
    gbv_1601638140
    Format: XII, 431 S. , Ill., graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 0792383990
    Note: Papers originally presented at the 1997 Bayesian Conference - Includes bibliographical references and index. - Festschrift Ward Edwards
    Language: English
    Subjects: Psychology
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    Keywords: Entscheidungstheorie ; Entscheidungsfindung ; Entscheidungstheorie ; Konferenzschrift ; Festschrift ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Konferenzschrift
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  • 8
    UID:
    gbv_278128777
    Format: graph. Darst
    ISBN: 047157936X
    Series Statement: Wiley series in systems engineering
    Language: English
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  • 9
    UID:
    b3kat_BV045872510
    Format: xxii, 262 Seiten , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    ISBN: 9781107122604 , 1107122600
    Content: This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.--
    Note: Intelligence analysis : "connecting the dots" -- Marshaling thoughts and evidence for imaginative analysis -- Discipline-CD : a cognitive assistant for connecting the dots -- Evidence -- Divide and conquer : a necessary approach to complex analysis -- Assessing the believability of evidence -- Chains of custody -- Recurrent substance-blind combinations of evidence -- Major sources of uncertainty in masses of evidence -- Assessing and reporting uncertainty : some alternative methods -- Analytic bias -- Learning and reusing analytic expertise : beyond Discipline-CD.
    Language: English
    Subjects: Psychology
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  • 10
    UID:
    edocfu_9959327326502883
    Format: 1 online resource (xvi, 366 pages) : , illustrations
    ISBN: 9781118150580 , 1118150589 , 9781118186442 , 1118186443
    Content: A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence is a Bayesian analysis of the trial and post-trial evidence in the Sacco and Vanzetti case, based on subjectively determined probabilities and assumed relationships among evidential events. It applies the ideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to this case, which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of American legal history. Modern computation methods applied to inference networks are used to show how the inferential force of evidence in a complicated case can be graded. The authors employ probabilistic assess.
    Note: Front Matter -- Different Wine in an Old Bottle -- A Standpoint for Our Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence -- Chains of Reasoning from a Mass of Evidence -- Grading the Probative Force of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence -- Probabilistic Analyses: Issues and Methods -- Probabilistic Analyses: Judgments and Stories -- Probabilistic Analyses of Evidence in Various Disciplines -- Final Thoughts about Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti -- Appendix A: Wigmore Evidence Charts and Key Lists for the Trial and Post-Trial Evidence -- Appendix B: Trial Witnesses List -- Appendix C: Probabilistic Story Ingredients in Words -- References -- Name Index -- Subject Index -- Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics.
    Additional Edition: Print version: Kadane, Joseph B. Probabilistic analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti evidence. New York : Wiley, ©1996 ISBN 9781118186442
    Language: English
    Keywords: Electronic books. ; Case studies.
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