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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cambridge, Mass. :MIT Press,
    UID:
    almahu_9949253399502882
    Format: 1 online resource (xxi, 543 pages) : , illustrations.
    Edition: 2nd ed. / Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines ; with additional material by David Heckerman [and others].
    ISBN: 9780262284158 , 0262284154 , 0262194406 , 9780262194402
    Series Statement: Adaptive computation and machine learning
    Content: The authors address the assumptions and methods that allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and use even incomplete causal knowledge in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment.What assumptions and methods allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and how can even incomplete causal knowledge be used in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment? In this book Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines address these questions using the formalism of Bayes networks, with results that have been applied in diverse areas of research in the social, behavioral, and physical sciences.The authors show that although experimental and observational study designs may not always permit the same inferences, they are subject to uniform principles. They axiomatize the connection between causal structure and probabilistic independence, explore several varieties of causal indistinguishability, formulate a theory of manipulation, and develop asymptotically reliable procedures for searching over equivalence classes of causal models, including models of categorical data and structural equation models with and without latent variables.The authors show that the relationship between causality and probability can also help to clarify such diverse topics in statistics as the comparative power of experimentation versus observation, Simpson's paradox, errors in regression models, retrospective versus prospective sampling, and variable selection.The second edition contains a new introduction and an extensive survey of advances and applications that have appeared since the first edition was published in 1993.
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Book
    Book
    Cambridge. Mass. [u.a.] :MIT Press,
    UID:
    almafu_BV013797490
    Format: XXI, 543 S. : graph. Darst.
    Edition: 2. ed.
    ISBN: 0-262-19440-6 , 978-0-262-19440-2
    Series Statement: Adaptive computation and machine learning
    Note: Includes bibliographical references (p. [495]-529) and index
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics , Mathematics , Philosophy
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    Keywords: Kausalität ; Statistische Schlussweise ; Bayes-Netz ; Kausalität ; Prognoseverfahren ; Statistik
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  • 3
    UID:
    almahu_9947362833302882
    Format: XXIV, 530 p. , online resource.
    ISBN: 9781461227489
    Series Statement: Lecture Notes in Statistics, 81
    Content: This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions, experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non­ experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now and then members of the statistical community express misgivings about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its purpose.
    Note: 1. Introduction and Advertisement -- 1.1 The Issue -- 1.2 Advertisements -- 1.3 Themes -- 2. Formal Preliminaries -- 2.1 Graphs -- 2.2 Probability -- 2.3 Graphs and Probability Distributions -- 2.4 Undirected Independence Graphs -- 2.5 Deterministic and Pseudo-Indeterministic Systems -- 2.6 Background Notes -- 3. Causation and Prediction: Axioms and Explications -- 3.1 Conditionals -- 3.2 Causation -- 3.3 Causality and Probability -- 3.4 The Axioms -- 3.5 Discussion of the Conditions -- 3.6 Bayesian Interpretations -- 3.7 Consequences of The Axioms -- 3.8 Determinism -- 3.9 Background Notes -- 4. Statistical Indistinguishability -- 4.1 Strong Statistical Indistinguishability -- 4.2 Faithful Indistinguishability -- 4.3 Weak Statistical Indistinguishability -- 4.4 Rigid Indistinguishability -- 4.5 The Linear Case -- 4.6 Redefining Variables -- 4.7 Background Notes -- 5. Discovery Algorithms for Causally Sufficient Structures -- 5.1 Discovery Problems -- 5.2 Search Strategies in Statistics -- 5.3 The Wermuth-Lauritzen Algorithm -- 5.4 New Algorithms -- 5.5 Statistical Decisions -- 5.6 Reliability and Probabilities of Error -- 5.7 Estimation -- 5.8 Examples and Applications -- 5.9 Conclusion -- 5.10 Background Notes -- 6. Discovery Algorithms without Causal Sufficiency -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 The PC Algorithm and Latent Variables -- 6.3 Mistakes -- 6.4 Inducing Paths -- 6.5 Inducing Path Graphs -- 6.6 Partially Oriented Inducing Path Graphs -- 6.7 Algorithms for Causal Inference with Latent Common Causes -- 6.8 Theorems on Detectable Causal Influence -- 6.9 Non-Independence Constraints -- 6.10 Generalized Statistical Indistinguishability and Linearity -- 6.11 The Tetrad Representation Theorem -- 6.12 An Example: Math Marks and Causal Interpretation -- 6.13 Background Notes -- 7. Prediction -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Prediction Problems -- 7.3 Rubin-Holland-Pratt-Schlaifer Theory -- 7.4 Prediction with Causal Sufficiency -- 7.5 Prediction without Causal Sufficiency -- 7.6 Examples -- 7.7 Conclusion -- 7.8 Background Notes -- 8. Regression, Causation and Prediction -- 8.1 When Regression Fails to Measure Influence -- 8.2 A Solution and Its Application -- 8.3 Error Probabilities for Specification Searches -- 8.4 Conclusion -- 9. The Design of Empirical Studies -- 9.1 Observational or Experimental Study? -- 9.2 Selecting Variables -- 9.3 Sampling -- 9.4 Ethical Issues in Experimental Design -- 9.5 An Example: Smoking and Lung Cancer -- 9.6 Appendix -- 10. The Structure of the Unobserved -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 An Outline of the Algorithm -- 10.3 Finding Almost Pure Measurement Models -- 10.4 Facts about the Unobserved Determined by the Observed -- 10.5 Unifying the Pieces -- 10.6 Simulation Tests -- 10.7 Conclusion -- 11. Elaborating Linear Theories with Unmeasured Variables -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 The Procedure -- 11.3 The LISREL and EQS Procedures -- 11.5 Results -- 11.6 Reliability and Informativeness -- 11.7 Using LISREL and EQS as Adjuncts to Search -- 11.8 Limitations of the TETRAD II Elaboration Search -- 11.9 Some Morals for Statistical Search -- 12. Open Problems -- 12.1 Feedback, Reciprocal Causation, and Cyclic Graphs -- 12.2 Indistinguishability Relations -- 12.3 Time series and Granger Causality -- 12.4 Model Specification and Parameter Estimation from the Same Data Base -- 12.5 Conditional Independence Tests -- 13. Proofs of Theorems -- 13.1 Theorem 2.1 -- 13.2 Theorem 3.1 -- 13.3 Theorem 3.2 -- 13.4 Theorem 3.3 -- 13.5 Theorem 3.4 -- 13.6 Theorem 3.5 -- 13.7 Theorem 3.6 (Manipulation Theorem) -- 13.8 Theorem 3.7 -- 13.9 Theorem 4.1 -- 13.10 Theorem 4.2 -- 13.11 Theorem 4.3 -- 13.12 Theorem 4.4 -- 13.13 Theorem 4.5 -- 13.14 Theorem 4.6 -- 13.15 Theorem 5.1 -- 13.16 Theorem 6.1 -- 13.17 Theorem 6.2. -- 13.18 Theorem 6.3 -- 13.19 Theorem 6.4 -- 13.20 Theorem 6.5 -- 13.21 Theorem 6.6 -- 13.22 Theorem 6.7 -- 13.23 Theorem 6.8 -- 13.24 Theorem 6.9 -- 13.25 Theorem 6.10 (Tetrad Representation Theorem) -- 13.26 Theorem 6.11 -- 13.27 Theorem 7.1 -- 13.28 Theorem 7.2 -- 13.29 Theorem 7.3 -- 13.30 Theorem 7.4 -- 13.31 Theorem 7.5 -- 13.32 Theorem 9.1 -- 13.33 Theorem 9.2 -- 13.34 Theorem 10.1 -- 13.35 Theorem 10.2 -- 13.36 Theorem 11.1.
    In: Springer eBooks
    Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9781461276500
    Language: English
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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  • 4
    UID:
    almafu_BV026702635
    Format: 218 S.
    Note: Kopie, erschienen im Verl. Univ. Microfilms Internat., Ann Arbor, Mich. , Pittsburgh, Pa., Univ. of Pittsburgh, 1981
    Language: English
    Keywords: Hochschulschrift
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  • 5
    UID:
    b3kat_BV006627235
    Format: XXIII, 526 S. , graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 0387979794 , 3540979794
    Series Statement: Lecture notes in statistics 81
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics , Mathematics , Sociology
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    Keywords: Kausalität ; Statistische Schlussweise ; Bayes-Netz ; Kausalität ; Prognoseverfahren ; Statistik
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  • 6
    UID:
    gbv_122324501
    Format: XXIII, 526 S , graph. Darst , 24 cm
    ISBN: 0387979794 , 3540979794
    Series Statement: Lecture notes in statistics 81
    Note: Literaturverz. S. 495 - 516
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics , Mathematics
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    Keywords: Statistische Schlussweise ; Statistische Schlussweise
    URL: Cover
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  • 7
    Book
    Book
    New York, NY [u.a.] :Springer,
    UID:
    almahu_BV006627235
    Format: XXIII, 526 S. : , graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 0-387-97979-4 , 3-540-97979-4
    Series Statement: Lecture notes in statistics 81
    Language: English
    Subjects: Economics , Mathematics , Sociology
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    Keywords: Kausalität ; Statistische Schlussweise ; Bayes-Netz ; Kausalität ; Prognoseverfahren ; Statistik
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