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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Credit-Less Recoveries : Neither a Rare Nor an Insurmountable Challenge (2013)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246400102883
    Format: 1 online resource (26 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: This paper examines why some countries experience economic recoveries without pick-up of bank credit (credit-less) and how different this recovery pattern is from the case where credit is increased as an economy recovers (credit-with). To answer these questions, the paper uses quarterly data covering 96 countries and identifies 272 recovery episodes. It finds that more than 25 percent of all recoveries are credit-less and around 45 percent of all credit-less recoveries occurred in 2009-10. It also finds that output and investment growth tends to be lower in credit-less events but, by eight quarters after the trough date, the gap between credit-less and credit-with episodes is mostly exhausted. Results of the probit estimations show that the size of the downturn and the extent of external adjustment are associated with the likelihood of credit-less recoveries. Moreover, fiscal loosening tends to be related to credit-less events while monetary easing and a country's decision to seek an International Monetary Fund-supported program reduce the probability of credit-less recoveries. Finally, the model suggests that many countries in the Europe and Central Asia region were likely to experience credit-less recoveries following the global financial crisis in 2008/09. What is more worrisome for them is the fact that they are facing another negative external shock.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6459
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    FU Berlin
    Charité
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stress-Testing Croatian Households with Debt-Implications for Financial Stability / (2011)
    Washington, D.C., : The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9958246454202883
    Format: 1 online resource (21 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: The purpose of this paper is to stress test the resilience of Croatian households with debt to economic shocks. The shocks not only impact a household's welfare, but also increase the probability of loan default. As a result, there is a direct link between these stress-testing exercises and financial stability risks. The authors find that very few households are at risk as a result of the shocks experienced over the past few years; new vulnerable households represent about 2 percent of all households, 6 percent of households with debt, and 2-3 percent of aggregate banking system assets. This suggests that household over-indebtedness in Croatia is unlikely to become a drag on aggregate economic activity and that financial stability risks remain manageable. One caveat should be noted. Some 27-31 percent of households with debt, representing 8-9 of banking system assets, are vulnerable even before being subjected to an economic shock. Since NPLs were low before the global financial crisis, it can be argued that banks knew something about some of these households that is not captured by household budget surveys. It follows that the calculations in this paper should primarily focus on the increased vulnerability of households as a result of shocks and are likely to represent an upper bound to the financial stability risks faced by Croatia on account of household indebtedness.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5906
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    FU Berlin
    Charité
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stress-Testing Croatian Households with Debt-Implications for Financial Stability (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048265343
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Content: The purpose of this paper is to stress test the resilience of Croatian households with debt to economic shocks. The shocks not only impact a household's welfare, but also increase the probability of loan default. As a result, there is a direct link between these stress-testing exercises and financial stability risks. The authors find that very few households are at risk as a result of the shocks experienced over the past few years; new vulnerable households represent about 2 percent of all households, 6 percent of households with debt, and 2-3 percent of aggregate banking system assets. This suggests that household over-indebtedness in Croatia is unlikely to become a drag on aggregate economic activity and that financial stability risks remain manageable. One caveat should be noted. Some 27-31 percent of households with debt, representing 8-9 of banking system assets, are vulnerable even before being subjected to an economic shock. Since NPLs were low before the global financial crisis, it can be argued that banks knew something about some of these households that is not captured by household budget surveys. It follows that the calculations in this paper should primarily focus on the increased vulnerability of households as a result of shocks and are likely to represent an upper bound to the financial stability risks faced by Croatia on account of household indebtedness
    Additional Edition: Sugawara, Naotaka Stress-Testing Croatian Households with Debt-Implications for Financial Stability
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5906
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    Fulltext
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Credit-Less Recoveries : Neither a Rare Nor an Insurmountable Challenge (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    b3kat_BV048265893
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Content: This paper examines why some countries experience economic recoveries without pick-up of bank credit (credit-less) and how different this recovery pattern is from the case where credit is increased as an economy recovers (credit-with). To answer these questions, the paper uses quarterly data covering 96 countries and identifies 272 recovery episodes. It finds that more than 25 percent of all recoveries are credit-less and around 45 percent of all credit-less recoveries occurred in 2009-10. It also finds that output and investment growth tends to be lower in credit-less events but, by eight quarters after the trough date, the gap between credit-less and credit-with episodes is mostly exhausted. Results of the probit estimations show that the size of the downturn and the extent of external adjustment are associated with the likelihood of credit-less recoveries. Moreover, fiscal loosening tends to be related to credit-less events while monetary easing and a country's decision to seek an International Monetary Fund-supported program reduce the probability of credit-less recoveries. Finally, the model suggests that many countries in the Europe and Central Asia region were likely to experience credit-less recoveries following the global financial crisis in 2008/09. What is more worrisome for them is the fact that they are facing another negative external shock
    Additional Edition: Sugawara, Naotaka Credit-Less Recoveries
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6459
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Fulltext
    EUV Frankfurt
    HTW Berlin
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Benefits and Costs of Debt : The Dose Makes the Poison (2020)
    Washington, D.C. :The World Bank,
    Details
    UID:
    almafu_9959377668002883
    Format: 1 online resource (39 pages)
    Series Statement: Policy research working papers.
    Content: Government debt has risen substantially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis. The current environment of low global interest rates and weak growth may appear to mitigate concerns about elevated debt levels. Considering currently subdued investment, additional government borrowing might also appear to be an attractive option for financing growth-enhancing initiatives such as investment in human and physical capital. However, history suggests caution. Despite low interest rates, debt was on a rising trajectory in half of EMDEs in 2018. In addition, the cost of rolling over debt can increase sharply during periods of financial stress and result in financial crises; elevated debt levels can limit the ability of governments to provide fiscal stimulus during downturns; and high debt can weigh on investment and long-term growth. Hence, EMDEs need to strike a careful balance between taking advantage of low interest rates and avoiding the potentially adverse consequences of excessive debt accumulation.
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9166
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    Online Resource
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    FU Berlin
    Charité
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean (2009)
    [Washington, D.C] : World Bank
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_834962683
    Format: Online-Ressource
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary Also available in print
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 4888
    Content: "This paper studies the causes and consequences of informality and applies the analysis to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. It starts with a discussion on the definition and measures of informality, as well as on the reasons why widespread informality should be of great concern. The paper analyzes informality's main determinants, arguing that informality is not single-caused but results from the combination of poor public services, a burdensome regulatory regime, and weak monitoring and enforcement capacity by the state. This combination is especially explosive when the country suffers from low educational achievement and features demographic pressures and primary production structures. Using cross-country regression analysis, the paper evaluates the empirical relevance of each determinant of informality. It then applies the estimated relationships to most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in order to assess the country-specific relevance of each proposed mechanism. "--World Bank web site
    Note: Includes bibliographical references , Title from PDF file as viewed on 5/7/2009 , Also available in print.
    Additional Edition: Loayza, Norman Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4888
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    Online Access
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global recessions (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1701139367
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9172
    Content: The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global gross domestic product contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity. The global recessions were highly synchronized internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by the global financial crisis, was by far the deepest and most synchronized of the four recessions. As the epicenter of the crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post-war period in advanced economies, as many of them have struggled to overcome the legacies of the crisis. In contrast, most emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery than after previous global recessions
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Kose, M. Ayhan Global Recessions Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9172
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Author information: Kose, M. Ayhan
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Debt and financial crises (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1700593552
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9116
    Content: Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and developing economies since 1970; a series of econometric models examining the linkages between debt and the probability of financial crises; and a set of case studies of rapid debt buildup that ended in crises. The paper reports four main results. First, episodes of debt accumulation are common, with more than 500 episodes occurring since 1970. Second, around half of these episodes were associated with financial crises which typically had worse economic outcomes than those without crises - after 8 years output per capita was typically 6-10 percent lower and investment 15-22 percent weaker in crisis episodes. Third, a rapid buildup of debt, whether public or private, increased the likelihood of a financial crisis, as did a larger share of short-term external debt, higher debt service cover, and lower reserves cover. Fourth, countries that experienced financial crises frequently employed combinations of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and financial sector policies, and often suffered from structural and institutional weaknesses
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Wee Chian Koh Debt and Financial Crises Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9116
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Author information: Kose, M. Ayhan
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Benefits and costs of debt : the dose makes the poison (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1700767062
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9166
    Content: Government debt has risen substantially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis. The current environment of low global interest rates and weak growth may appear to mitigate concerns about elevated debt levels. Considering currently subdued investment, additional government borrowing might also appear to be an attractive option for financing growth-enhancing initiatives such as investment in human and physical capital. However, history suggests caution. Despite low interest rates, debt was on a rising trajectory in half of EMDEs in 2018. In addition, the cost of rolling over debt can increase sharply during periods of financial stress and result in financial crises; elevated debt levels can limit the ability of governments to provide fiscal stimulus during downturns; and high debt can weigh on investment and long-term growth. Hence, EMDEs need to strike a careful balance between taking advantage of low interest rates and avoiding the potentially adverse consequences of excessive debt accumulation
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Kose, M. Ayhan Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9166
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Author information: Kose, M. Ayhan
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    Open Access Request
    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Can this time be different? : policy options in times of rising debt (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1701141914
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9178
    Content: Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread financial crises in these economies. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood that it ends again in widespread crises. It reports two main results. First, the rapid increase in debt has made emerging and developing economies more vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment, notwithstanding historically low global interest rates. Second, policy options are available to lower the likelihood of financial crises, and to help manage the adverse impacts of crises when they do occur. These include sound debt management, strong monetary and fiscal frameworks, and robust bank supervision and regulation. The post-crisis debt buildup has coincided with a period of subdued growth as well as the emergence of non-traditional creditors. As a result, policy priorities also need to ensure that debt is spent on productive purposes to improve growth prospects and that all debt-related transactions are transparently reported
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Kose, M. Ayhan Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9178
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Author information: Kose, M. Ayhan
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    Online Resource
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    UB Potsdam
    MPI Bildungsforschung
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